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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Nov 2021, 09:29 
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Years ago I was involved in a small partnership and we made a valiant attempt at starting an aviation battery company based on getting Hawker's AGM batteries PMA'd for GA pistons. (they have turbine batteries)

We become enthralled with battery power and built an electric pit bike. We took a new Honda CRF 50 and replaced the 3.5HP four stroke engine with a 15HP Briggs and Stratton ETEC motor.

With the gas engine top speed was about 32MPH and it would get there whenever.

With the ETEC and 4 12v Hawker (Odyssey) Batteries... top speed was 60MPH and it would get there damn near instantly if you could figure out how to hang on!

Someone needs to develop an aftermarket electric generator / supercharger that bolts on in place of your alternator and gives an electric motor boost to a conventional gas engine. BMW had a version of this, but I haven't thought about it in years.


That is basically what a hybrid does. Usually integral to the drive train. It would be pretty hard to do as a bolt on aftermarket accessory. You could only add a couple horsepower through an accessory belt.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Nov 2021, 10:07 
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Got a ride in a Plaid. It is absolutely insane. Like getting shout out of cannon. And the acceleration is "unnatural". Perfectly linear and silent.

And, yes, a little "plaid" animation plays while you launch...

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Nov 2021, 10:29 
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Love my Tesla S. Be careful switching between EV and conventional. I have gotten out of my conventional car with it still running and in gear.

Sort of like forgetting to extend the gear after flying fixed gear planes for a while.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Nov 2021, 10:36 
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Got a ride in a Plaid. It is absolutely insane. Like getting shout out of cannon. And the acceleration is "unnatural". Perfectly linear and silent.

And, yes, a little "plaid" animation plays while you launch...

Best,
Rich


It’s a shame about those brakes though, lives will be lost tragically


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Nov 2021, 11:59 
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Half on topic.

I was thinking of getting a plane more for local flying and just going up for a couple hours. As it is not practical to do with the TBM, great for A to B flying but not say flying along Lake Michigan and that sort or low flying. But with the way the market is I decided I am going to get a Lambo Gallardo instead, should be just as fun! Just not great timing as winter is coming here in WI so likely wait till Spring....but I am looking at one week of Thanksgiving. See how that turns out.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Nov 2021, 14:21 
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Username Protected wrote:

Someone needs to develop an aftermarket electric generator / supercharger that bolts on in place of your alternator and gives an electric motor boost to a conventional gas engine. BMW had a version of this, but I haven't thought about it in years.


That is basically what a hybrid does. Usually integral to the drive train. It would be pretty hard to do as a bolt on aftermarket accessory. You could only add a couple horsepower through an accessory belt.


Yes, you'd either have to have a separate belt that connected it to the crank or a massive serpentine belt that could handle the torque, something similar to a supercharger belt.
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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 15 Nov 2021, 12:10 
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Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.

We are starting to see something I have never seen before, aircraft brokers are actually saying "make offer" there is no price. What they are doing is taking bids. Highest bid / best terms gets the airplane.

I've been at this 20 years and have never seen anything like the market we are in, last Friday I talked to my friend Jack Adams that has been in the aircraft business for 50 years, he said he's never seen anything like this. He said his dad was very busy back in the late 70's, but there were so few airplanes and so few brokers it's hard to compare.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Nov 2021, 12:41 
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“Private jet takeoffs and landings are up 40%…”

“Even then, the supply of second-hand private jets is near record lows.”


https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/11/26/t ... -boom.html

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Nov 2021, 12:54 
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“Private jet takeoffs and landings are up 40%…”

“Even then, the supply of second-hand private jets is near record lows.”


https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/11/26/t ... -boom.html


How high does fuel have to go before people stop flying and inventory rises?

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Nov 2021, 12:57 
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How high does fuel have to go before people stop flying and inventory rises?

Perhaps the better question is how many more days like Friday does the market have to go through before demand abates and supply rises?

edit: (Hopefully not many… :pray: )

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Nov 2021, 13:15 
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Username Protected wrote:
“Private jet takeoffs and landings are up 40%…”

“Even then, the supply of second-hand private jets is near record lows.”


https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/11/26/t ... -boom.html


How high does fuel have to go before people stop flying and inventory rises?


So many aircraft owners I've seen just let their planes sit rather than sell when they should, so I think the high fuel prices will cause pilots to reduce their flying to match their fuel budget before they would sell their planes. Half of the 21 rental hangars at my airport have long-time inop planes in them, not for sale, just collecting dust.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Nov 2021, 13:18 
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There's an argument to be made that a reduction in planes flying will actually push fuel prices up. Lower sales volume ---> higher prices to make up lost profits.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Nov 2021, 13:20 
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The last time fuel was 6 dollars a gallon at my airport activity dropped 20%.

Fuel just went past 6 dollars again but it’s to early to get any real data. If fuel prices hit 7 dollars the estimated reduction in activity is 30 to 40 %.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Nov 2021, 15:24 
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Username Protected wrote:
“Private jet takeoffs and landings are up 40%…”

“Even then, the supply of second-hand private jets is near record lows.”


https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/11/26/t ... -boom.html


How high does fuel have to go before people stop flying and inventory rises?


It depends. The guy flying a 1964 Baron, he probably cuts back immediately. The guy in a Legacy Citation, Lear, Hawker or Challenger… probably slows down quite a bit. The guy in a Mustang… probably unfazed. The guy in Gulfstream 650, Global or Falcon 7X… probably doesn’t change anything.

Piston twins and legacy jet inventory might benefit, but that would probably be it. Unfortunately, many of those selling a legacy jet will want to buy a late model for higher fuel efficiency.
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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Nov 2021, 18:14 
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Hopefully prices will start coming back down. Crude is back where it was in August.


Please login or Register for a free account via the link in the red bar above to download files.

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