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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Sep 2022, 12:12 
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Joined: 11/27/09
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Location: Knoxville TN
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Despite the "belief" aviation is dying it isn't. When I got back in two years ago after being out for two years the difference was shocking. Ramps full of airplanes, maintenance shops backed up months, no hangers available, flight schools at capacity ect. I guess we can debate how much the planes are flying but from what I have seen the number of planes I have to steer around while departing the Ranch has gone up as well.

The reality is new airplanes are not an option for the majority of pilots. We still have to train new pilots or commercial air carriers are going to run out of pilots. The demand for new commercial pilots is obvious now that right seat commuters are paying $70K starting, and the inconvenient truth is legacy piston singles are still the best trainers with no real viable new option for 99% of flight schools. This will continue to increase demand for old airplanes. The price for 150s has doubled in two years. There is a school in Morristown that refurbishes old 150s for its school. If I sell now I can recoup the money I have spent to fix mine. I have already had an unsolicited offer to buy my 150 which is far from perfect condition. What will impact the market, as some point out, is attrition caused by age and poor maintenance which is a very real problem in the legacy market but this will only increase the value of well maintained airplanes. The biggest obstacle is airport access, parts prices and availability along with spiraling fuel costs and maintenance access.

I miss paying $2.50 a gallon for Mogas.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Sep 2022, 13:43 
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Joined: 05/20/18
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Location: Northeast of Southwest Central America
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I love those old taildragger Cessnas.

I've been contemplating how nice it would be to pick one up to teach my teenagers how to fly in. Mike C. do you remember what kind of performace figures you got with the 180 hp conversion?


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Sep 2022, 14:17 
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Joined: 05/01/14
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Location: Операционный офис КГБ
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Username Protected wrote:
Despite the "belief" aviation is dying it isn't. When I got back in two years ago after being out for two years the difference was shocking. Ramps full of airplanes, maintenance shops backed up months, no hangers available, flight schools at capacity ect. I guess we can debate how much the planes are flying but from what I have seen the number of planes I have to steer around while departing the Ranch has gone up as well.



There is no real debate on how much planes are flying. There is hard data that says they aren't really flying more. Until We see a sustained uptick in fuel sales, all the talk about how busy things are and the GA rebound are nothing more than a bunch of BS.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... 000001&f=m

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Sep 2022, 14:29 
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Location: Northeast of Southwest Central America
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That is a great metric. I was just looking at the kerosene burning and it took a swift kick in the nuts with Covid dropping below 1985 volumes but appears to be making a meteoric rise now, snapping right back to the higher avg.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 17 Sep 2022, 12:33 
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Joined: 09/02/09
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Location: Oklahoma City - PWA/Calistoga KSTS
Aircraft: UMF3, UBF 2, P180 II
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The best part about buying your last plane first, is that you don't have to deal with all this market BS, you don't have to browse controller ads, etc- you just pay for fuel/insurance and fly the paint off it


Maybe so. But you miss the fun of the hunt and the challenge of learning to fly new planes. I get folks who like to buy and keep forever. My FIL had one set of golf clubs he played with for over 40 years: the grooves on the irons were about gone when he passed. Not me. I like to keep moving. My progression is a bit different than Mike's:

2009 - Cessna 172
2010- Cessna 182
2010 - 1992 Bonanza F33A
2011 - 1998 Bonanza A36TN
2011- 1988 Waco YMF 5
2013- 2013 Cirrus SR22TN
2016 - 2008 TBM 850
2018 - 1934 Waco UMF 3
2020 - 2008 Piaggio Avanti II
2022 - 1933 Waco UBF 2
2022 - 1929 Travelair B4000
2022 - 1946 Cessna 120
2022 - 1946 Fairchild 24W

I'm finding there are fewer antiques on the market currently, especially Waco's, but I know that will change. With six airplanes currently I have plenty to do.

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Travel Air B4000, Waco UBF2,UMF3,YMF5, UPF7,YKS 6, Fairchild 24W, Cessna 120
Never enough!


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 17 Sep 2022, 13:26 
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Joined: 12/03/14
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Location: KEHR
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Username Protected wrote:
My progression is a bit different than Mike's:

You are a museum.

I'm a corporate flight department.

Very different goals.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 17 Sep 2022, 13:46 
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Username Protected wrote:
My progression is a bit different than Mike's:

You are a museum.

I'm a corporate flight department.

Very different goals.

Mike C.


I have the flight department too - that's the P180. But the collecting is more fun.
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Travel Air B4000, Waco UBF2,UMF3,YMF5, UPF7,YKS 6, Fairchild 24W, Cessna 120
Never enough!


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 17 Sep 2022, 13:57 
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Joined: 09/11/09
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Location: Tulsa, Ok
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Username Protected wrote:

The best part about buying your last plane first, is that you don't have to deal with all this market BS, you don't have to browse controller ads, etc- you just pay for fuel/insurance and fly the paint off it


Maybe so. But you miss the fun of the hunt and the challenge of learning to fly new planes. I get folks who like to buy and keep forever. My FIL had one set of golf clubs he played with for over 40 years: the grooves on the irons were about gone when he passed. Not me. I like to keep moving. My progression is a bit different than Mike's:

2009 - Cessna 172
2010- Cessna 182
2010 - 1992 Bonanza F33A
2011 - 1998 Bonanza A36TN
2011- 1988 Waco YMF 5
2013- 2013 Cirrus SR22TN
2016 - 2008 TBM 850
2018 - 1934 Waco UMF 3
2020 - 2008 Piaggio Avanti II
2022 - 1933 Waco UBF 2
2022 - 1929 Travelair B4000
2022 - 1946 Cessna 120
2022 - 1946 Fairchild 24W

I'm finding there are fewer antiques on the market currently, especially Waco's, but I know that will change. With six airplanes currently I have plenty to do.


Holy crow, a Travelair 4000??? You're my new Hero. Need help keeping them exercised.........I'm just up the turnpike. LOL.
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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Nov 2022, 21:11 
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Joined: 09/26/22
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Location: XQU Qualicum
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While long, this thread has been a great read.

This is a tremendous website, with many knowledgeable people.

I believe as we mature ( get old ) our wants and desires change in most aspects of our lives, including the aircraft we fly.

My next wants are an M350, and something amphibious.

The market is starting to cool down is my belief, and it will keep slowing throughout 2023 and 2024.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Nov 2022, 19:53 
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Joined: 11/25/11
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Location: KGNF, Grenada, MS
Aircraft: Baron, 180,195,J-3
Karen would love to own a Cirrus Vision Jet, not that I wouldn't. It's about the only "aviation thing" that intrigues her. Hey, it doesn't hurt to dream.

Throughout the rise of aircraft prices, she has followed the price of the Vision Jets and today, when I took her lunch at the office, she pointed out that the number of Visions on the market is the most she has ever seen; twenty on Controller. :eek: She recalled that a year ago, she might see two.

What does that mean? I'll tell you. I DON'T KNOW! :clap:

PLEASE don't start suggesting alternatives to her. She is absolutely NOT interested in your opinion. :woot: Hell, she's barely interested in mine. :dancing:

Jg :D

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Nov 2022, 20:03 
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Joined: 07/21/08
Posts: 5429
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Location: Decatur, TX (XA99)
Aircraft: 1979 Bonanza A36
Username Protected wrote:
Karen would love to own a Cirrus Vision Jet, not that I wouldn't. It's about the only "aviation thing" that intrigues her. Hey, it doesn't hurt to dream.

Throughout the rise of aircraft prices, she has followed the price of the Vision Jets and today, when I took her lunch at the office, she pointed out that the number of Visions on the market is the most she has ever seen; twenty on Controller. :eek: She recalled that a year ago, she might see two.

What does that mean? I'll tell you. I DON'T KNOW! :clap:

PLEASE don't start suggesting alternatives to her. She is absolutely NOT interested in your opinion. :woot: Hell, she's barely interested in mine. :dancing:

Jg :D

What the lady wants, the lady gets.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Nov 2022, 20:13 
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Joined: 05/01/14
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Location: Операционный офис КГБ
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Username Protected wrote:
she pointed out that the number of Visions on the market is the most she has ever seen; twenty on Controller. :eek: She recalled that a year ago, she might see two.

What does that mean? I'll tell you. I DON'T KNOW! :clap:



It means that there will be 19 left after you buy her the one she wants.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Nov 2022, 20:27 
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Joined: 11/08/12
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Location: San Carlos, CA - KHWD
Aircraft: Piaggio Avanti
Username Protected wrote:
What does that mean? I'll tell you. I DON'T KNOW! :clap:

Clearly, it means you need to get a MU2. :D

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Nov 2022, 22:24 
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Joined: 09/02/09
Posts: 8415
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Location: Oklahoma City - PWA/Calistoga KSTS
Aircraft: UMF3, UBF 2, P180 II
Username Protected wrote:
Karen would love to own a Cirrus Vision Jet, not that I wouldn't. It's about the only "aviation thing" that intrigues her. Hey, it doesn't hurt to dream.

Throughout the rise of aircraft prices, she has followed the price of the Vision Jets and today, when I took her lunch at the office, she pointed out that the number of Visions on the market is the most she has ever seen; twenty on Controller. :eek: She recalled that a year ago, she might see two.

What does that mean? I'll tell you. I DON'T KNOW! :clap:

PLEASE don't start suggesting alternatives to her. She is absolutely NOT interested in your opinion. :woot: Hell, she's barely interested in mine. :dancing:

Jg :D


Years ago I got my wife to go to Sun N Fun with me. Once. She call's it "sun and sun". Anyway, my effort was to get her to look at a few airplanes I was thinking about. I owned a Cirrus at the time and my friend our regional rep was trying to get me interested in a Vision Jet. He told me that Cirrus had several of the first 10 to be delivered that they wanted to go to people like myself and he'd set up a showing of the mock up at SNF for us.

She hated it. Among her complaints was that it didn't have any window shades. When we went into the trailer they had there at the display my friend introduced us to Dale Klapmeier who asked what we thought. She proceeded to tell him she couldn't understand why there were no shades (she liked to pretend she wasn't in an airplane). That was pretty funny!

She also told me on that trip that "if money were no object" we'd be buying a PC12. But money is always an object so she had to settle for a TBM 850. The lady is now very happy in the back of an Avanti II with shades on every window and a private potty. I don't think I'm ever going to be able to sell that plane...

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Travel Air B4000, Waco UBF2,UMF3,YMF5, UPF7,YKS 6, Fairchild 24W, Cessna 120
Never enough!


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Nov 2022, 22:50 
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I do not know John’s better half but based on the occasional facts he shares about her I think we can conclude she is smart, well educated and insightful. Probably has acquired considerable wisdom through her years with John. Bottom line, if a woman like that really wanted a Cirrus Jet she would have one. Hopefully she would make John her first choice for PIC.

And John, if you really want a Cirrus Jet, just tell her you forbid her to get one. :cheers:


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