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28 Mar 2024, 09:30 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus Vision G2+ announced today
PostPosted: 28 Jul 2021, 11:00 
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Bringing up a jet that bankrupted its manufacturer as a cheaper option isn’t really a valid comparison.

The SF50 already did that to Cirrus, had it not been for selling them to the Chinese.

Mike C.

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Last edited on 28 Jul 2021, 11:04, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus Vision G2+ announced today
PostPosted: 28 Jul 2021, 11:04 
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Cheapest: Achieved


We don't yet know if the SF50 program has turned a profit yet. There was a lot of money spent in development. Eclipse didn't have sales of the SR series or Chinese money to prop them up.

Mike C.

The Chinese are making money on their 2012 Cirrus investment. I believe 300 planes is the break even on the design & certification costs. That will happen this year.

Eclipse delivered 256 EA500's in two years before shutting down the line. And bankruptcy followed, and the program never broke even.

Cirrus has delivered that many Vision jets since December 2016, and the line is not only open, but booked for several years at about 100 per year. $240 million in revenue on the jet alone.
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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus Vision G2+ announced today
PostPosted: 28 Jul 2021, 11:17 
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I believe 300 planes is the break even on the design & certification costs. That will happen this year.

Source?

Even at clearing $1M profit on each one (which was NOT the case for many of the early ones with low contract prices and is likely hopelessly optimistic), I don't believe the SF50 development program came in under $300M.

Early contract prices were $1.39M, $1.55M, and $1.72M. At the time Cirrus quoted the price as $1.72M, they said they had 431 orders, so all of those are that price OR LESS. Those have to be losers if they now want $3M a copy. No way they are making $1M profit on those early contracts.

Eclipse spent well over $1B and that was a decade prior to the SF50 program.

I do not believe they have paid back their development investment yet. They may not even be positive on production by itself.

Take away the Chinese sale, Cirrus no longer exists. I think the lost development costs were written off and will never be paid back.

Eclipse bungled avionics (ironic given Vern was a software guy), but the airplane was otherwise well thought out in terms of basic design. The performance was very good, flying higher, faster, farther and much less fuel than the SF50, and providing thrust and system redundancy the SF50 can't match.

If we could get the Eclipse planform and the SF50 avionics together, that would have been awesome. But alas, the single engine religion at Cirrus blinded them to that possibility.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus Vision G2+ announced today
PostPosted: 28 Jul 2021, 11:27 
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If we could get the Eclipse planform and the SF50 avionics together, that would have been awesome. But alas, the single engine religion at Cirrus blinded them to that possibility.

I rode in an Eclipse (in the back) - it is tiny inside compared to the SF50.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus Vision G2+ announced today
PostPosted: 28 Jul 2021, 11:52 
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If we could get the Eclipse planform and the SF50 avionics together, that would have been awesome. But alas, the single engine religion at Cirrus blinded them to that possibility.

I rode in an Eclipse (in the back) - it is tiny inside compared to the SF50.


According to Google cabin dimensions
Vision 5.1 wide 4.1 tall
Eclipse 4.7 wide 4.2 tall

Sounds comparable to me and on my last flight i was able to shoot a gap VFR at 41K between T-storms that went to 43K.
That would have been no fun at 31K no matter what the cabin

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus Vision G2+ announced today
PostPosted: 28 Jul 2021, 13:41 
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The timing of the introduction of the Eclipse jet (right before the financial crisis) may also have been a factor in its demise, as well as relying on one major buyer (DayJet).

The SF50, on the other hand, was launched in better financial times. And times are really good now for personal jet makers.

Interesting to note that another VLJ, the Citation Mustang, was introduced about the same time as the Eclipse, but was produced over a longer period of time (past the financial crisis) with twice the number being built before it was also cancelled (supposedly because it was being outsold by the M2).

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus Vision G2+ announced today
PostPosted: 28 Jul 2021, 13:50 
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Video from Avweb and Cirrus with a flight discussing the improved performance...

https://youtu.be/5eSK6CxR53U


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus Vision G2+ announced today
PostPosted: 28 Jul 2021, 13:57 
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Eclipse ain't back in full swing yet, but they're getting close.
Debt is done, now rebuilding parts and supply chain.

I would not count them out just yet.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus Vision G2+ announced today
PostPosted: 28 Jul 2021, 14:34 
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Username Protected wrote:
[

If we could get the Eclipse planform and the SF50 avionics together, that would have been awesome. But alas, the single engine religion at Cirrus blinded them to that possibility.

Mike C.


I believe that was supposed to be the EA700. With a G3000, That would be a jet that might convince me to give up my turbo prop.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus Vision G2+ announced today
PostPosted: 28 Jul 2021, 14:40 
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Eclipse ain't back in full swing yet, but they're getting close.
Debt is done, now rebuilding parts and supply chain.

I would not count them out just yet.

How many times has this taken place already? Buyer buys assets for cheap, starts to sell some parts, tries to restart production, and is shortly bankrupt again…. :doh:

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus Vision G2+ announced today
PostPosted: 28 Jul 2021, 14:41 
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Eclipse ain't back in full swing yet, but they're getting close.
Debt is done, now rebuilding parts and supply chain.

I would not count them out just yet.

Many excellent planes have come from companies that were once bankrupt. The original investors buy into the dream; the finances prove overly optimistic but the aerodynamics are sound. The second (or third) round of investors get the benefits.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus Vision G2+ announced today
PostPosted: 28 Jul 2021, 15:59 
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Username Protected wrote:
Eclipse ain't back in full swing yet, but they're getting close.
Debt is done, now rebuilding parts and supply chain.

I would not count them out just yet.

How many times has this taken place already? Buyer buys assets for cheap, starts to sell some parts, tries to restart production, and is shortly bankrupt again…. :doh:


Different buyer this time. My understanding is the assets were bought cheaper (<10MM) and they're savvy enough to make it work.

Time will tell. I think that the overall airplane was a good one.
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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus Vision G2+ announced today
PostPosted: 28 Jul 2021, 16:11 
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Time will tell. I think that the overall airplane was a good one.

It would be a great little airplane if the avionics were normal Garmin stuff. Once there is an STC to rip out all the weirdo custom IS&S stuff plus the electronic breakers that are unique to it, and put in normal, acquirable aviation parts, it’ll be much improved.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus Vision G2+ announced today
PostPosted: 28 Jul 2021, 17:01 
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If they had used the same thought process for starting a piston series, it would go 90 knots but burn 25 GPH.

If you'd run Cirrus, they would be like, what, Columbia? If that?

Instead, they're the most successful piston plane company with a waiting line for their jets, that are still doing what you said they couldn't.

Not a hater? Pleeeease.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus Vision G2+ announced today
PostPosted: 28 Jul 2021, 17:07 
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Video from Avweb and Cirrus with a flight discussing the improved performance...

https://youtu.be/5eSK6CxR53U


On the demo flight the G2+ ground roll was reduced 400+ feet from the previous generation. That's significant. Makes me wonder what they are workin on for the G3.


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