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07 Aug 2022, 21:46 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 31 May 2021, 19:35 
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Joined: 01/06/08
Posts: 3540
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Aircraft: B55 P2
I wonder how much of the high price of turbines is concern about the end of 100LL?

If I could have afforded at turbine I would have, but its out of my budget. So I'm hoping my $300K baron doesn't become a lawn ornament.


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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 02 Jun 2021, 00:06 
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Joined: 01/02/08
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Company: Rusnak Auto Group
Location: Newport Coast, CA
Aircraft: Baron B55 N7123N
Username Protected wrote:
It’s supply and demand. The demand has increased to the point that it’s over-stressed the supply. Buyers are really competing to buy airplanes. Beats the hell out of a dead market. Cool stuff if you ask me.

Clint, spoken like a true car guy! Planes, like cars reside in a very pure supply and demand environment. Right now both are short in supply, long in demand.

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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 00:15 
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Joined: 01/01/10
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Location: Roseburg, Oregon
Aircraft: Citation Mustang
The stretch currently in the airplane market is just a microcosm of the car market. We’re operating on a five day ground stock supply, yet generating good monthly volumes. Craziest era I’ve ever witnessed in my automotive career.

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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 00:51 
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Joined: 01/02/08
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Company: Rusnak Auto Group
Location: Newport Coast, CA
Aircraft: Baron B55 N7123N
Username Protected wrote:
The stretch currently in the airplane market is just a microcosm of the car market. We’re operating on a five day ground stock supply, yet generating good monthly volumes. Craziest era I’ve ever witnessed in my automotive career.

That’s a fact. Clint, we pay for hundreds of parking spots at a nearby multi-level parking garage. Was full of new Land Rovers and Jaguars plus lease returns waiting to be picked up. Every spot is empty now but I won’t stop paying for the property because some other dealer might pick it up. The shortage of inventory won’t last forever but it will last longer than most optimistically think. At least our flooring costs are a fraction of what they were in normal times... our inventory is so low that it has negatively affected our new car volume significantly so there is heavier reliance than ever before on used cars and service/parts to pay the bills. I’m looking for my Doors “Strange Days” album right now. ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 08:57 
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Joined: 07/01/19
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Aircraft: In market
I am surprised with the market, it seems like people are upgrading and their previous aircraft are moving quickly. As for the automotive side, I work for a truck manufacturer (class 5-8) and we face similar parts constraints as automotive OEMs but I can’t figure this out, are consumers snatching up used and new vehicles (and I’m just sitting on the sidelines) or what is happening there? I only know one person who’s bought a new/different vehicle in the last 6-12 months. I’d have expected with how hot the market is, I’d know more. I’d like to replace my wife’s Mercedes but can’t find a suitable replacement at this time (she’s in a GL63).


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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 09:18 
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Joined: 07/10/10
Posts: 877
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Location: New Braunfels, TX
Aircraft: Conquest
Same thing in the tractor and construction equipment industry. Sales are above last year but inventory is at a one-month supply.

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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 11:21 
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Joined: 05/23/13
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Company: Jet Acquisitions, LLC
Location: Franklin, TN 615-739-9091
Airplanes I get, we have a clear cause and effect, the airlines are unbearable so they’re being avoided. I suspect when I say this that everyone pictures a billionaire leaving his favorite airline and buying a new Falcon, but I can assure you that event is rare, very rare. He might go to NetJets or another fractional, but newbies jumping into multi-million dollar jets is rare.

What isn’t rare is move up buyers, the folks that flew themselves for the short trips and the airlines for everything else. They are upgrading so they can avoid the airlines completely.

However Mr. B does affect our world, the fractional and charter companies are swamped and people are moving to ownership to avoid the hassle.

The good news is, inventory is up, at least in some markets, largely driven by folks wanting to move up or to unload an airplane that would be a tough sell in a down market.

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Chip

It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


Last edited on 03 Jun 2021, 13:43, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 11:57 
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Joined: 10/05/11
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Company: Power/mation
Location: Milwaukee, WI (KMKE)
Aircraft: 1963 Debonair B33
I wonder what is the total inventory of airworthy business jets worldwide....

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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 12:10 
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Joined: 01/23/13
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Company: Kokotele Guitar Works
Location: Albany, NY
Aircraft: C-182RG, C-172, PA28
Username Protected wrote:
...I can’t figure this out, are consumers snatching up used and new vehicles (and I’m just sitting on the sidelines) or what is happening there?


Nick, not sure where you are, but here we have a lot of people fleeing the NYC and Boston metro areas to places with more open space. People who had no car (or maybe 1 car per couple) moved to the country or suburbs and bought up all the luxury vehicles and then some. I've heard the same is happening in cities all over the country.


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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 13:44 
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Joined: 05/23/13
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Company: Jet Acquisitions, LLC
Location: Franklin, TN 615-739-9091
Username Protected wrote:
I wonder what is the total inventory of airworthy business jets worldwide....


The total number advertised for sale currently is 1480

That's everything from old Westwinds to Airbus private jets, and I would guess a third of those listings aren't real.

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Chip

It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 17:45 
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Joined: 07/01/19
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Aircraft: In market
I’m west of Chicago, about 10 west of KDPA, so the current fringe of suburb/farm land. Most lots in my area are 1+ acres and we have 4. Maybe we are just being stingy with our money too. The wife thought a small boat would be nice but that market is INSANE now and I’d like to wait that one out a bit, I’d like a plane and that market is crazy too. For Clint and Sven, are you guys able to fulfill customer orders with your allocations or are you getting whatever inventory your OEMs send? The 5 day ground stock supply would scare me but if you are still able to keep up the sales, that’s less floor plan you’re paying for, right? The local Chevy dealer currently has 34 new cars and 4 pickups, all half ton or Colorado. They usually have 100+.
Back when I was in the car dealership industry, service paid the bills and sales were the icing, has that changed now that reliability has gone up?
I also wonder if the newer aircraft sell better or worse now than something 10+ years old due to concerns over maintenance.


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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 18:33 
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Joined: 06/02/15
Posts: 1891
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Location: Fresno, CA (KFAT)
Aircraft: "Barren"
Sorry for the drift: I have 2009 X5, low mileage for its year that I want to sell. In the current market, what’s the best way to get the best price? Car Max? Craigslist? Dealer direct contact?

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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 18:58 
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Joined: 01/01/18
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Location: West Long Branch, NJ (KBLM)
Aircraft: 1960 Twin Bonanza
Username Protected wrote:
Sorry for the drift: I have 2009 X5, low mileage for its year that I want to sell. In the current market, what’s the best way to get the best price? Car Max? Craigslist? Dealer direct contact?


That is quite the thread drift! I listed my jeep wrangler on craigslist this morning. I bought it new in 2018. I listed it for 2k less than kbb said its worth. A dealer reached out to me (among a dozen other calls) and wants to pick it up tomorrow for 3k more than I paid for it 3 years ago. I think craigslist is still effective.

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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 19:04 
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Joined: 01/24/10
Posts: 5839
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Location: Concord , CA (KCCR)
Aircraft: 1967 Baron B55
When the airlines are back to 100% operations and you can get business or first class seats to anywhere this turbine bubble will burst.


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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 19:50 
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Joined: 05/23/13
Posts: 4792
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Company: Jet Acquisitions, LLC
Location: Franklin, TN 615-739-9091
Username Protected wrote:
Sorry for the drift: I have 2009 X5, low mileage for its year that I want to sell. In the current market, what’s the best way to get the best price? Car Max? Craigslist? Dealer direct contact?


I agree on Craigslist, the dealers watch it like a hawk. I put up a GMC Denali pickup a few months ago, I priced it at (what I thought) was retail and one of the calls was a dealer, he offered a little less than some of the other buyers but I knew it would be a no BS deal. We met at the airport, he gave me a check and I gave him the keys, I signed the title and a paper he needed... done.

I always put "title in hand" that way they know you don't owe anything on it and can sell it on the spot.

Having said all that... what do you want for the X5? I've always kinda wanted one.

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Chip

It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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