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09 Aug 2022, 15:33 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


Stevens Aerospace (Banner)



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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 19:51 
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Joined: 05/23/13
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Company: Jet Acquisitions, LLC
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Username Protected wrote:
When the airlines are back to 100% operations and you can get business or first class seats to anywhere this turbine bubble will burst.


Do you really see the airlines starting to treat people like paying customers... ever again?

I have decided they are government subsidized just like the USPS and their service and attitudes are equal.

_________________
Chip

It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 20:10 
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Joined: 03/04/13
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Location: Little Rock, Ar
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Username Protected wrote:
When the airlines are back to 100% operations and you can get business or first class seats to anywhere this turbine bubble will burst.


Do you really see the airlines starting to treat people like paying customers... ever again?

I have decided they are government subsidized just like the USPS and their service and attitudes are equal.


Thank god for the airlines. Without them, some of us wouldn’t have a career.

Robert T

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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 20:12 
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Joined: 10/05/11
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Company: Power/mation
Location: Milwaukee, WI (KMKE)
Aircraft: 1963 Debonair B33
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I wonder what is the total inventory of airworthy business jets worldwide....


The total number advertised for sale currently is 1480

That's everything from old Westwinds to Airbus private jets, and I would guess a third of those listings aren't real.


Interesting info, thx.

I meant "total", not just those for sale, though. Just curious, that's all.
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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 20:49 
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Username Protected wrote:

Interesting info, thx.

I meant "total", not just those for sale, though. Just curious, that's all.


Ah, sorry... the total is 22,753

Plus another 15,719 for turboprops.

_________________
Chip

It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 20:55 
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Username Protected wrote:

Do you really see the airlines starting to treat people like paying customers... ever again?

I have decided they are government subsidized just like the USPS and their service and attitudes are equal.


Thank god for the airlines. Without them, some of us wouldn’t have a career.

Robert T


Very true and I hate to talk crap about them when so many of my friends work for them... but Covid has created the perfect storm.

There's a certain member of this board that is in hot water with the feds just for complaining. When there are signs in every jet bridge that basically say "keep your mask on and your mouth shut or you're going to jail" we know what to expect in regards to customer service.
_________________
Chip

It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 21:06 
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Joined: 01/24/10
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Location: Concord , CA (KCCR)
Aircraft: 1967 Baron B55
Username Protected wrote:
When the airlines are back to 100% operations and you can get business or first class seats to anywhere this turbine bubble will burst.


Do you really see the airlines starting to treat people like paying customers... ever again?

I have decided they are government subsidized just like the USPS and their service and attitudes are equal.



The customers that can afford an old turbine can afford first class and YES they will get good service. When that happens the turbine market will go down from where it is now.

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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 21:18 
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The airlines don’t fly to a fraction of airports that those turbines do or even pistons. America doesn’t exist in cities only served by the airlines!


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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 21:18 
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I meant to say thank gawd for the airlines. Without them some of us wouldn’t have careers in general aviation.

Robert T


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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 21:24 
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Username Protected wrote:
I meant to say thank gawd for the airlines. Without them some of us wouldn’t have careers in general aviation.

Robert T


Ah yes! 100% AGREE!

_________________
Chip

It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 21:29 
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The customers that can afford an old turbine can afford first class


Not very many things that are more expensive than an old turbine


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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 21:38 
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Username Protected wrote:
Do you really see the airlines starting to treat people like paying customers... ever again?

I have decided they are government subsidized just like the USPS and their service and attitudes are equal.



The customers that can afford an old turbine can afford first class and YES they will get good service. When that happens the turbine market will go down from where it is now.


Well, anyone who can afford a turbine can certainly afford to fly first class... it's the service, even in first class that is currently the issue.

I'd flip the argument and say anyone who can afford a turbine isn't going to fly the airlines.

While I think the airlines are a contributing factor to our current market, they are but one... many companies have been fat with cash for several years (the majority of our clients pay cash for their airplanes) and now they see signs of further devaluation of the dollar, so a major capital purchase makes sense. This devaluation is expected, in part because of the billions given to companies, so that's a factor.

You also have the bulk of the turbine aircraft fleet getting very old, that means that many of those owners want to upgrade to newer aircraft and they are realizing just how few there are. There move up creates opportunities for folks to move from piston to turbine.

There's a lot of factors, will the bubble cool and deflate a little? I sure hope so! Will it bust...

I seriously doubt it, especially as long as the airlines keep treating people like cattle.
_________________
Chip

It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


Top

 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 21:55 
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Joined: 01/24/10
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Location: Concord , CA (KCCR)
Aircraft: 1967 Baron B55
Chip hold that thought, we will find out in the next 24 months.


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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 22:28 
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1st class has a lot of practical advantages over flying yourself. You can work the entire flight. Its less fun, but usually cheaper and a lot more practical.

Of course if you can afford a jet and pilot, that changes.

Its interesting that international first class is quite nice on most airlines, but domestic first is often barely better than coach


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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 22:42 
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Joined: 11/30/12
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Location: Santa Fe, NM (KSAF)
Aircraft: B200, 500B
Username Protected wrote:
Well, anyone who can afford a turbine can certainly afford to fly first class... it's the service, even in first class that is currently the issue.

I'd flip the argument and say anyone who can afford a turbine isn't going to fly the airlines.

While I think the airlines are a contributing factor to our current market, they are but one... many companies have been fat with cash for several years (the majority of our clients pay cash for their airplanes) and now they see signs of further devaluation of the dollar, so a major capital purchase makes sense. This devaluation is expected, in part because of the billions given to companies, so that's a factor.

You also have the bulk of the turbine aircraft fleet getting very old, that means that many of those owners want to upgrade to newer aircraft and they are realizing just how few there are. There move up creates opportunities for folks to move from piston to turbine.

There's a lot of factors, will the bubble cool and deflate a little? I sure hope so! Will it bust...

I seriously doubt it, especially as long as the airlines keep treating people like cattle.

I suspect many of the guys who move to turbines aren't doing it to be pampered - they're doing it for time. Door to door, I can beat the airlines to almost any point in the US, and I can do it on my schedule.

As far as service goes, they can give me a mani-pedi on every flight but they still won't get me back. Half the "service" problems in the US aren't coming from the airlines - they're coming from the TSA. Now if they eliminated the TSA - maybe then they'd get me back.


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 Post subject: Re: Turbine Market Update
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2021, 22:46 
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Joined: 07/01/19
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I used to be a road warrior for a few years at work and typically rode on the carrier that LUVS you. I would sometimes fly on other carriers, mostly United and occasionally American. I still flew them enough to occasionally get an upgrade and in 5 years I got a first class upgrade three times. One was fantastic, good meal, booze, and free streaming WiFi where I could watch my own movies and be ready to pass out in the airport hotel when I landed. Once was the opposite of a red eye and I had a decent breakfast, but no lunch, and barely any service besides a cloth napkin and ice water. The final time they changed planes and I ended up in a standard seat in the front row seat but due to the size of the plane no meal, WiFi was broken, and there were no trays in the front row either. I never did get to upgrade for international but I can imagine it was different. SWA may have their nuances but at least when I was booked in the A1-15 I knew I was going to have my pick of seats, and could count on passing off my drink coupon for something mediocre and knock out a little of my trip report. Flying GA as a kid ruined me. Even though it was a Cherokee, it was awesome. I have no desire to fly in cattle class ever again and would make a 2 day trip GA instead of having a layover flight commercially. Sign me up for one of those entry level turbines.


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