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28 Mar 2024, 15:43 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


Concorde Battery (banner)



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 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 22 May 2021, 19:33 
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Username Protected wrote:
An $11.2B sales backlog. There is a market…. But how to make it financially feasible… the age old aviation question.

Question to the engineers. Is it cheaper to make an airplane that goes Mach 2, or a rocket that goes out of the atmosphere and can make it anywhere in 2 hours? I know nothing….. but the later would make more sense.


The rocket going out of the atmosphere might be cheaper if you don't need it to come back down or use it again.


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 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 22 May 2021, 20:28 
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Would you pay double to fly twice as fast on a commercial flight?


I’d pay quadruple to go a quarter of the speed privately

Can’t take a sat phone call on commercial flight, can’t carry gear/equipment for work feasibly on a commercial flight, can’t make schedule changes as needed on commercial flight

Speed isn’t everything, agility/ability is


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 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 22 May 2021, 20:42 
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Username Protected wrote:
Would you pay double to fly twice as fast on a commercial flight?


Beats doing NYC-LAX at mach .76 in a 737


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 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 22 May 2021, 21:22 
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Username Protected wrote:

Beats doing NYC-LAX at mach .76 in a 737


But not in 777 having your arse kissed for 7 hours.

I have flown the Concorde.

Meh.

"Sorry sir, happy you arrived in 3 hours, but your room won't be ready for 4, but you are welcome to sit in the lobby until then. Cheers!"

I was fairly nascent in aviation when I got my butt in one of those seats. But knowing what I know now about the cost of this crap, that ticket (which OPM paid for) should have cost 50K and they still would have sucked financial wind.

A hundred dollars?

Please.

The 0730 Mimosa would cost more than that.

Did I mention the smoked beluga?

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 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 22 May 2021, 22:19 
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I'm skeptical of companies that announce far beyond state of the art performance, but provide artist's concepts of interiors rather than prototypes or at least pictures of CFD models.

Anyone want a sub-orbital aircraft, less than an hour between any two points on the earth, no more expensive than existing first class - and look at the burled walnut seat accents.



Username Protected wrote:
Not shocking. Always seemed like a pipe dream to me.

It's certainly possible. The pipe dream is that it can be done affordably. Apparently the answer to that is still "no".

I love that in the article, somehow "inaudible sonic boom" morphed into "silent flight", LOL.

Not only was it to be supersonic, efficient, and affordable, it was also completely silent!

Doesn't really help the image much.


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 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 22 May 2021, 22:48 
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They blamed the current financial market. Well, interest rates will likely never be lower than they are now so if not now, when? SPAC’s are throwing money at all kinds of start ups too


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 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 22 May 2021, 23:21 
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Its just another company with "vision" which is to say someone has an idea that X would be cool and its "only" engineering to make it a reality.

Supersonic bizjets
flying cars
Space tourism
nuclear fusion startups

I have some experience with the last. Lots of startups who have an "idea" of how to do fusion, with no real understanding of the issues and an approach that had no hope of success.

The challenge isn't rehashing half century old ideas of what it would be nice to have, but actually making them a reality.

There are a few companies that have done a good job - SpaceX comes to mind, but that was based on very strong engineering talent, and a design that was not all that far from existing solutions, just highly optimized.


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 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 23 May 2021, 08:34 
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The rocket going out of the atmosphere might be cheaper if you don't need it to come back down or use it again.

Throwing the vehicle away increases the flight cost, it doesn’t reduce it.

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 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 23 May 2021, 14:22 
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If Gulfstream did not see financial feasibility with their SSBJ, X-54, or "Gulfstream Sonic Whisper" program it's hard to imagine a company, that is not bankrolled by Bezos or Musk or Gates or the family of Allen, or some other visionary Billionaire looking to finance smart people to do amazing things, being financially successful.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi-Gulfstream_S-21
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulfstream_X-54
https://aviationweek.com/blog/supersoni ... gulfstream
https://www.savannahnow.com/article/200 ... /302149817


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 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 23 May 2021, 20:13 
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My true Aerion story:

They put out a press release way back when (at least 15 years ago, IIRC) that stated the engine manufacturer I was working for would be supplying the engines.

It was news to everyone in the company, especially since the engine they advertised had been out of production for well over a decade and they had never discussed any of their plans with company personnel.....

:lol: :lol: :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 23 May 2021, 20:16 
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They blamed the current financial market. Well, interest rates will likely never be lower than they are now so if not now, when? SPAC’s are throwing money at all kinds of start ups too


During the initial start up phase, everyone wanted this. It would have been a great example of American ingenuity and aviation prowess. That's evident by the order backlog.

But this year, during the building phase, the current government has turned against the idea due to climate change, demonization of private aviation, and the focus on taxing investors, so investors are not going to fund it. They're already moving billions back offshore. So yes, that is the state of the current financial markets. Protecting capital. Expect this scenario to play out all across the country as money moves into carbon capture, green energy, etc. Whatever the latest fad becomes.

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 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 23 May 2021, 20:46 
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The question is whether they had the technical expertise and the capital to pull it off. People have been talking about supersonic biz jets and commercial jets since the 60s, but the only one in service, Concorde, was a huge money loser.

I don't think they were hindered by politics, I don't see any sign that they had a viable design


Username Protected wrote:
They blamed the current financial market. Well, interest rates will likely never be lower than they are now so if not now, when? SPAC’s are throwing money at all kinds of start ups too


During the initial start up phase, everyone wanted this. It would have been a great example of American ingenuity and aviation prowess. That's evident by the order backlog.

But this year, during the building phase, the current government has turned against the idea due to climate change, demonization of private aviation, and the focus on taxing investors, so investors are not going to fund it. They're already moving billions back offshore. So yes, that is the state of the current financial markets. Protecting capital. Expect this scenario to play out all across the country as money moves into carbon capture, green energy, etc. Whatever the latest fad becomes.


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 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 23 May 2021, 21:18 
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Just look at the current fads: Electric F-150's, electric airplanes, and even battery powered locomotives for the ultimate in stupidity. None of these have any hope of replacing current vehicles, but there is a lot of money chasing them. The power of government driven incentives blinds people to the harsh realities of physics. At some point, you give up and go with the flow. That's where Aerion's potential money has gone, with the flow. Aerion has a viable plane, the only unknown is whether their engine partner could deliver a suitable engine. Every new airplane's success depends on the engines more than anything else.

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 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 23 May 2021, 22:09 
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Username Protected wrote:
even battery powered locomotives for the ultimate in stupidity.


I think you just went too far....


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 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 23 May 2021, 22:16 
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Electric airplanes seen hopeless except for nich applications - there are some very short haul (<100 mile) scheduled flights (replacing ferries) that might make sense for an electric, which could have lower operating costs.

Electric road vehicles value depends on their use case. My next car will be electric because my commute is < 50 miles and I haven't driven > 150 in over a decade - I use my plane for that. Being able to charge in my garage saves time (and electrics are really nice to drive!). Similarly some shop that only uses their truck <100 miles / day may want to save the time / expense of the crew refueling. For people who need to go further, then gas makes sense.

Its a technology, not a religion.

Does Aerion have a viable plane? What have they published about it? Do they have a flying demonstrator? The website looked like "vision" to me but maybe there is something real behind it?

As you say, engines are key, and developing a new supersonic turbofan is a bit $$ deal. If they could use engines from an F22 or some existing super-cruise aircraft it might make sense.

Username Protected wrote:
Just look at the current fads: Electric F-150's, electric airplanes, and even battery powered locomotives for the ultimate in stupidity. None of these have any hope of replacing current vehicles, but there is a lot of money chasing them. The power of government driven incentives blinds people to the harsh realities of physics. At some point, you give up and go with the flow. That's where Aerion's potential money has gone, with the flow. Aerion has a viable plane, the only unknown is whether their engine partner could deliver a suitable engine. Every new airplane's success depends on the engines more than anything else.


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