banner
banner

28 Mar 2024, 06:55 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


Concorde Battery (banner)



Reply to topic  [ 57 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4
Username Protected Message
 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 27 May 2021, 17:06 
Offline


 Profile




Joined: 01/06/08
Posts: 4665
Post Likes: +2678
Aircraft: B55 P2
I don't think the F18 has the range / payload ratio, not sure they can supercruise.
The F22 can super cruise (one of the few planes that can) but its a lot of $$$.

if you look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_ ... -22_Raptor
the super cruise range seems very limited, max range with external tanks (subsonic) is somwhere in the 1000-2000 miles (depending on external tanks etc). Eurofighter typhoon is similar.

Concord with 4500 mile range is the longest supercruies range I know of without using drop-tanks (but if someone has a longer example, I'm interested) (orbit doesn't count :D )

Concord's range was a significant limit - supersonic helps across the atlantic, but really trans pacific is the big win.

I don't know how realistic the costs are but the numbers feel low to me for such a revolutionary design. But I don't really know.

If the market is there, and the technology works, someone will build it - but I've been hearing about this sort of concept for decades now.


Username Protected wrote:
But could they really meet their promises specs at only 120M/plane?

I think you and I are thinking along similar lines.

$120m is about double to triple the price of current business jets. It's also about double the price of a new F-18. That's not a great comparison other than both are large~ish airplanes that top out just over Mach 1, in other words big pieces of metal and composite that can go a thousand miles an hour. Consider the differences that could make the price go up or down, or maybe make no difference:

- production run in the dozens (91 orders and counting) vs several hundred
- one's purpose is to carry a pressure vessel big enough for 10-12 passengers, the other's is to carry a lot of specialized mission equipment
- other airframe differences for transport category vs, uhhh, unlimited aerobatics
- Aerion is aerodynamically optimized for fast cruise, F-18 optimized for much lower cruise speed and uses excess thrust to achieve its dash speed

:shrug:

But yeah, I think it could have made the $120m price or at least come close. If they liquidate the intellectual property then somebody else will have an easier time picking it up from here and making that price.


Top

 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 27 May 2021, 17:20 
Offline


User avatar
 Profile




Joined: 08/26/15
Posts: 9514
Post Likes: +8745
Company: airlines (*CRJ,A320)
Location: Florida panhandle
Aircraft: Travel Air,T-6B,etc*
Username Protected wrote:
I don't think the F18 has the range / payload ratio, not sure they can supercruise.
The F22 can super cruise (one of the few planes that can) but its a lot of $$$.

All true (including your thoughts on Concorde), and there's nothing out there that makes a great comparison with the Aerion. Everything even vaguely similar is either half the size, twice the size, has much different mission requirements, and so on.

Aside from that, your guess is as good as mine whether the $120m price point is achievable.


Don't forget, the original Lightning could supercruise and that was in the 1950s. However, its fuel reserves would never pass Part 25 certification.
:D :pilot:


Top

 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 27 May 2021, 22:06 
Offline


 Profile




Joined: 10/31/11
Posts: 982
Post Likes: +631
Company: B777, 767, 757, 727, MD11, S80
Location: Colorado Springs
Aircraft: Thrush S2R, AC500B,
Username Protected wrote:
A random pass through flying magazines from the 50s, 60s and 70s would indicate that most ideas rarely come to fruition.


Hat goes for more than aviation also.


Top

 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 11 Jun 2021, 20:09 
Offline


 Profile




Joined: 07/13/19
Posts: 367
Post Likes: +482
Location: FL
Aircraft: F-35A, L-39, '74 B55
Username Protected wrote:
I don't think the F18 has the range / payload ratio, not sure they can supercruise.
The F22 can super cruise (one of the few planes that can) but its a lot of $$$.

if you look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_ ... -22_Raptor
the super cruise range seems very limited, max range with external tanks (subsonic) is somwhere in the 1000-2000 miles (depending on external tanks etc). Eurofighter typhoon is similar.

Concord with 4500 mile range is the longest supercruies range I know of without using drop-tanks (but if someone has a longer example, I'm interested) (orbit doesn't count :D )

Concord's range was a significant limit - supersonic helps across the atlantic, but really trans pacific is the big win.

I don't know how realistic the costs are but the numbers feel low to me for such a revolutionary design. But I don't really know.

If the market is there, and the technology works, someone will build it - but I've been hearing about this sort of concept for decades now.



The -229 motor F-15Es can supercruise in a no-CFT (conformal fuel tanks) configuration. Additionally, in various different fighter airframe / motor combinations at altitude, the min-AB throttle settings aren’t much different from mil power as far as fuel flow goes. Heat distribution is another thing entirely. As far as airframes go, above the number can present many different thermal endurance challenges.


Top

 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 12 Jun 2021, 11:03 
Offline


User avatar
 Profile




Joined: 05/03/12
Posts: 2118
Post Likes: +557
Location: Wichita, KS
Aircraft: Mooney 201
Username Protected wrote:
But could they really meet their promises specs at only 120M/plane?

I think you and I are thinking along similar lines.

$120m is about double to triple the price of current business jets. It's also about double the price of a new F-18. That's not a great comparison other than both are large~ish airplanes that top out just over Mach 1, in other words big pieces of metal and composite that can go a thousand miles an hour. Consider the differences that could make the price go up or down, or maybe make no difference:

- production run in the dozens (91 orders and counting) vs several hundred
- one's purpose is to carry a pressure vessel big enough for 10-12 passengers, the other's is to carry a lot of specialized mission equipment
- other airframe differences for transport category vs, uhhh, unlimited aerobatics
- Aerion is aerodynamically optimized for fast cruise, F-18 optimized for much lower cruise speed and uses excess thrust to achieve its dash speed

:shrug:

But yeah, I think it could have made the $120m price or at least come close. If they liquidate the intellectual property then somebody else will have an easier time picking it up from here and making that price.


I believe what they wanted to build would not close a business case with the required tooling investment versus the relatively short production run and $120 mil price tag. I don't think they declared bankruptcy... Just closed so I doubt they can walk away from any current liabilities. Time will tell if someone else tries to finish, but I don't think it is economically feasible.

Top

 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 12 Jun 2021, 22:16 
Offline


 Profile




Joined: 02/01/09
Posts: 1330
Post Likes: +904
Company: boyes bros. inc.
Location: Mexico,Missouri
Aircraft: baron b55
After you buy your 120 million dollar jet, how are you going to find a shop to work on it ? These things could be anywhere on the globe, its not like your Boeing broke. The day you take delivery, you would have an orphan to care for.


Top

 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 13 Jun 2021, 18:06 
Offline


User avatar
 Profile




Joined: 12/22/07
Posts: 12813
Post Likes: +13205
Company: Cogswell Cogs, LLC
Location: KPTK (SE Michigan)
Aircraft: C205
If you can afford one $120 million airframe, you can probably afford two.

Some corps and high net worth (HNW) individuals buy/crew/fly two just in case one AOG’s. IIRC, GE freq flew two BBJ’s(?) to some intl destinations to mitigate possible AOG delays.

One of our local HNW guys owns a pair of Gulfstreams. When he flies, both are crewed and catered. The backup does not return to the shed until #1 is at least 100nm down range. The crew of #2 remains at PTK until #1 is essentially @ TOD. Family, FA/RN and mechanic walk off #1 and onto #2 while the rampers move the bags. For intl returns, he typically keeps a chartered Gulfstream ready/on-call and able to arrive:depart within two hours.

For long intl flights that require a fuel stop, he pre-positions a fresh crew, typically 36-48 hours before the scheduled fuel stop.

The 2nd Gulfstream was once dispatched an hour behind the primary when it was discovered that a case of wine had been left behind. Some of the HNW folks live a very different lifestyle!

_________________
Life is a DiY project.


Last edited on 13 Jun 2021, 20:45, edited 1 time in total.

Top

 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 13 Jun 2021, 19:11 
Offline


User avatar
 Profile




Joined: 07/29/17
Posts: 1701
Post Likes: +3815
Location: Freedom NH
Aircraft: Club Archer
Username Protected wrote:
Some of the HNW folks live a very different lifestyle!


I had to google HNW. Guess that means something. :rofl:

_________________
“Each year you make a resolution to change yourself. This year, make a resolution to be yourself.”


Top

 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 13 Jun 2021, 20:47 
Offline


User avatar
 Profile




Joined: 12/22/07
Posts: 12813
Post Likes: +13205
Company: Cogswell Cogs, LLC
Location: KPTK (SE Michigan)
Aircraft: C205
Definition in my post; High Net Worth

_________________
Life is a DiY project.


Top

 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 14 Jun 2021, 23:17 
Offline


User avatar
 Profile




Joined: 06/02/12
Posts: 293
Post Likes: +175
Location: KHPN
Aircraft: C33A
Username Protected wrote:
Some of the HNW folks live a very different lifestyle!


I think you meant obscene. :duck:


Top

 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 15 Jun 2021, 00:44 
Offline


 Profile




Joined: 01/06/08
Posts: 4665
Post Likes: +2678
Aircraft: B55 P2
There are always people with more money than you can imagine and people with less than you can imagine.

Username Protected wrote:
Some of the HNW folks live a very different lifestyle!


I think you meant obscene. :duck:


Top

 Post subject: Re: Aerion shuts down
PostPosted: 15 Jun 2021, 01:43 
Offline


 Profile




Joined: 06/17/14
Posts: 4891
Post Likes: +1860
Location: KJYO
Aircraft: C-182, GA-7
Time is money and there would likely be a few hundred airframes delivered, particularly if they had a sonic signature of 76db or less with minimal overpressure.

I was on-site when a media tycoon met two nice pilots on a demo ride and she offered to double their salary to come work for her. HNW individuals get what they want.

A certain supermodel owns an amazing intercontinental business jet and I remember when she came to pick it up one day. If it wasn't ready on time, the factory had a shiny new ExecJet fueled and ready. They did the same thing for Cosby, who was super nice to all of us though he had some specific requirements regarding who was allowed to work on his plane.

Years ago a certain comedian was grounded when his studio's large cabin bizjet was AOG. The factory dispatched an AOG team on a light jet as well as identified a smaller intercontinental bizjet and had it airborne within an hour. By the time the comedian arrived they told him what happened and ushered him on the backup aircraft, which I believe was a certain aviation manufacturer's aircraft that had silk carpet, deer skin leather seats, and a gold plated bathroom. It had belonged to a Prince/Sultan.

There were few AOGs and plenty of parts support out there for even the older airframes. If you find the right manufacturer they will support the aircraft.

There is a reason that Boeing and Gulfstream abandoned hope/backed off a few years ago. I certainly hope to hear the Gulfstream "Whisper" one day.


Top

Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic  [ 57 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4




You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Jump to:  

Terms of Service | Forum FAQ | Contact Us

BeechTalk, LLC is the quintessential Beechcraft Owners & Pilots Group providing a forum for the discussion of technical, practical, and entertaining issues relating to all Beech aircraft. These include the Bonanza (both V-tail and straight-tail models), Baron, Debonair, Duke, Twin Bonanza, King Air, Sierra, Skipper, Sport, Sundowner, Musketeer, Travel Air, Starship, Queen Air, BeechJet, and Premier lines of airplanes, turboprops, and turbojets.

BeechTalk, LLC is not affiliated or endorsed by the Beechcraft Corporation, its subsidiaries, or affiliates. Beechcraft™, King Air™, and Travel Air™ are the registered trademarks of the Beechcraft Corporation.

Copyright© BeechTalk, LLC 2007-2024

.wilco-85x100.png.
.kingairnation-85x50.png.
.headsetsetc_Small_85x50.jpg.
.CiESVer2.jpg.
.planelogix-85x100-2015-04-15.jpg.
.aircraftferry-85x50.jpg.
.gallagher_85x50.jpg.
.kingairacademy-85x100.png.
.shortnnumbers-85x100.png.
.saint-85x50.jpg.
.kadex-85x50.jpg.
.bpt-85x50-2019-07-27.jpg.
.midwest2.jpg.
.pdi-85x50.jpg.
.blackhawk-85x100-2019-09-25.jpg.
.pure-medical-85x150.png.
.airmart-85x150.png.
.wat-85x50.jpg.
.temple-85x100-2015-02-23.jpg.
.tempest.jpg.
.bullardaviation-85x50-2.jpg.
.SCA.jpg.
.AAI.jpg.
.Latitude.jpg.
.sierratrax-85x50.png.
.MountainAirframe.jpg.
.geebee-85x50.jpg.
.daytona.jpg.
.one-mile-up-85x100.png.
.traceaviation-85x150.png.
.dbm.jpg.
.ei-85x150.jpg.
.chairmanaviation-85x50.jpg.
.aircraftassociates-85x50.png.
.jetacq-85x50.jpg.
.concorde.jpg.
.blackwell-85x50.png.
.Wentworth_85x100.JPG.
.avionwealth-85x50.png.
.jandsaviation-85x50.jpg.
.Wingman 85x50.png.
.aeroled-85x50-2022-12-06.jpg.
.cav-85x50.jpg.
.ssv-85x50-2023-12-17.jpg.
.aviationdesigndouble.jpg.
.boomerang-85x50-2023-12-17.png.
.ABS-85x100.jpg.
.centex-85x50.jpg.
.camguard.jpg.
.lucysaviation-85x50.png.
.stanmusikame-85x50.jpg.
.Marsh.jpg.
.Foreflight_85x50_color.png.
.avfab-85x50-2018-12-04.png.
.tat-85x100.png.
.Rocky-Mountain-Turbine-85x100.jpg.
.Genesys_85x50.jpg.