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16 Jun 2021, 06:48 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Re: How to buy an airplane in a seller's market.
PostPosted: 28 Apr 2021, 19:45 
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As soon as this COVID crisis is over there will be more first class seats available to anywhere.

When that happens a lot of new jet and TP owners will be selling their planes because they have been educated on the REAL COST of a Jet vs first class.


I think this is true. The care and feeding of a cheap jet will be eye opening to many. Sure, some will stick with it, but not all.


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 Post subject: Re: How to buy an airplane in a seller's market.
PostPosted: 28 Apr 2021, 21:12 
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One potential upside to a hot market: many planes (jets in particular) that have been mothballed or sidelined due to maintenance/upgrade issues (e.g. ADSB, RVSM) will be brought up to spec and put on the market. This will increase the overall number of planes flying and will lead to more buyer choices when the market later cools.

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 Post subject: Re: How to buy an airplane in a seller's market.
PostPosted: 29 Apr 2021, 12:18 
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As soon as this COVID crisis is over there will be more first class seats available to anywhere.

When that happens a lot of new jet and TP owners will be selling their planes because they have been educated on the REAL COST of a Jet vs first class.

I hope that is the case. Here is an article that discusses this, but talks out both sides of its mouth:
https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/pan ... purchases/


I don't disagree with some of what they said... just doubt that it is happening so quickly.

I've been asked several times if we have seen "buyer's remorse" and the answer is no... but we educate our clients as to the true cost of ownership, so there are no surprises.
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 Post subject: Re: How to buy an airplane in a seller's market.
PostPosted: 29 Apr 2021, 14:56 
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Username Protected wrote:
As soon as this COVID crisis is over there will be more first class seats available to anywhere.

When that happens a lot of new jet and TP owners will be selling their planes because they have been educated on the REAL COST of a Jet vs first class.


I wonder if this will be the same with piston owners?

From what I have seen, people are buying 182s and then dumping $50 to $100k into them with gadgets and keep up with the joneses upgrades. I just do not see the new owners actually flying their airplanes and going places.

Tim


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 Post subject: Re: How to buy an airplane in a seller's market.
PostPosted: 29 Apr 2021, 15:51 
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You can make a 2 by 2 chart with columns for "Afford a plane" "Wanted a plane pre-covid"

The yes-want side has been buying and selling planes for awhile. The new entrants to the market are the ones who 1) can afford it 2) previously didn't want one. I would venture to say a large number of those people will stay in the GA ecosystem. Some may move from a CitationJet to a King Air. Some may move from a Citation Jet to a Citation X.

I suspect covid is starting a long-term market boom for GA.


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 Post subject: Re: How to buy an airplane in a seller's market.
PostPosted: 29 Apr 2021, 21:37 
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You can make a 2 by 2 chart with columns for "Afford a plane" "Wanted a plane pre-covid"

Personally I suspect you need a 3rd column, the "Want it bad enough to deal with the various headaches of ownership".

I suspect your "Afford=yes" but "Wanted pre-covid=no" subset would be largely filled with folks who want the convenience of GA travel versus the airlines, but without taking into account the hassles of actual ownership (insurance, training, maintenance, hangaring... well, you know). Reality is that much of that desire could be filled with some chartering and perhaps not necessarily ownership.

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 Post subject: Re: How to buy an airplane in a seller's market.
PostPosted: 30 Apr 2021, 06:16 
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Username Protected wrote:
You can make a 2 by 2 chart with columns for "Afford a plane" "Wanted a plane pre-covid"

Personally I suspect you need a 3rd column, the "Want it bad enough to deal with the various headaches of ownership".

I suspect your "Afford=yes" but "Wanted pre-covid=no" subset would be largely filled with folks who want the convenience of GA travel versus the airlines, but without taking into account the hassles of actual ownership (insurance, training, maintenance, hangaring... well, you know). Reality is that much of that desire could be filled with some chartering and perhaps not necessarily ownership.

Increased demand for charters could also lead to increased demand for airplanes and thus higher prices.
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 Post subject: Re: How to buy an airplane in a seller's market.
PostPosted: 30 Apr 2021, 06:55 
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Username Protected wrote:
You can make a 2 by 2 chart with columns for "Afford a plane" "Wanted a plane pre-covid"

Personally I suspect you need a 3rd column, the "Want it bad enough to deal with the various headaches of ownership".

I suspect your "Afford=yes" but "Wanted pre-covid=no" subset would be largely filled with folks who want the convenience of GA travel versus the airlines, but without taking into account the hassles of actual ownership (insurance, training, maintenance, hangaring... well, you know). Reality is that much of that desire could be filled with some chartering and perhaps not necessarily ownership.


On the piston side I agree. The movement has been people who knew the hassles and upgraded because of covid

The long-term demand shift will be in professionally managed turbines. There’s a lotta people who could run a mustang but always thought the expense was silly. Now they don’t.

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 Post subject: Re: How to buy an airplane in a seller's market.
PostPosted: 30 Apr 2021, 16:52 
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Reality is that much of that desire could be filled with some chartering and perhaps not necessarily ownership.


It's difficult and expensive to charter post-Covid, they aren't keeping up with the demand in many areas now, this summer is going to leave a lot of folks who charter on the airlines or vacationless.

We have a client who will take delivery of their airplane mid-month, needed to charter down to Cabo, couldn't even get people to call him back. I suspect the next few years are going to be huge for Wheels Up, NetJets and the other fractionals.

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 Post subject: Re: How to buy an airplane in a seller's market.
PostPosted: 01 May 2021, 18:41 
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Username Protected wrote:
Reality is that much of that desire could be filled with some chartering and perhaps not necessarily ownership.


It's difficult and expensive to charter post-Covid,


I've had two experiences chartering. One was a quote for what I thought would be a straightforward 100nm down on Friday, 100nm back on Sunday in a Navajo. $4k

Next time I had a flight i HAD to make on a private airplane to Kansas City. 441 up and back, 5 hours flight time and about 5:30 from wheels up to wheels down. $6K.

Charter is a great option when 8 orthopedic surgeons want to go pheasant hunting for the weekend once a year, but somebody who wants to go on vacation 3 times a year ... if a whole plane is too expensive, then go for half a plane.

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