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 Post subject: Re: Boeing Starliner: 80 Problems
PostPosted: 02 Jun 2023, 07:12 
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… and more sticky valves.

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 Post subject: Re: Boeing Starliner: 80 Problems
PostPosted: 02 Jun 2023, 08:42 
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It's a painful study in political inertia and cronyism to see how long NASA holds on to this pig instead of declaring it dead and moving on.

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 Post subject: Re: Boeing Starliner: 80 Problems
PostPosted: 02 Jun 2023, 10:02 
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Boeing has discovered that some portion of the lines to the parachutes are weaker than they thought. So weak that if one of the three parachutes fails, the lines on the other 2 will not support the descending decelerating space capsule.

Oops. That's like a twin that can't stay aloft on one engine, only even worse.


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 Post subject: Re: Boeing Starliner: 80 Problems
PostPosted: 02 Jun 2023, 10:20 
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Make it 10 years and I'm with you.

And inside of 1 year, tax the gains at 50%. Inside of 1 week, 70%
Yep, an illiquid stock market will be good for everyone. Making stockholders hostages to stupid business decisions will really enhance the ability of people to depend on the market for their retirement. Given that current law forces just about everyone into financial markets for any hope of retirement/return, that'll work great.
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 Post subject: Re: Boeing Starliner: 80 Problems
PostPosted: 02 Jun 2023, 10:39 
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Yep, an illiquid stock market will be good for everyone. Making stockholders hostages to stupid business decisions will really enhance the ability of people to depend on the market for their retirement. Given that current law forces just about everyone into financial markets for any hope of retirement/return, that'll work great.

illiquid? hostage? I'm not saying you can't sell anytime you want. Just that you will have to pay more taxes on any short term profits. Your "people depending on it for retirement" aren't doing hourly trades


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 Post subject: Re: Boeing Starliner: 80 Problems
PostPosted: 02 Jun 2023, 11:32 
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Yep, an illiquid stock market will be good for everyone. Making stockholders hostages to stupid business decisions will really enhance the ability of people to depend on the market for their retirement. Given that current law forces just about everyone into financial markets for any hope of retirement/return, that'll work great.

illiquid? hostage? I'm not saying you can't sell anytime you want. Just that you will have to pay more taxes on any short term profits. Your "people depending on it for retirement" aren't doing hourly trades
Such a proposal will decrease liquidity.

If there are problems with a stock/company, owners will now to have try to handicap the tax treatment over time versus the prospects of the stock. That increases their exposure to the stupidity of the company (risk). That's a hostage situation. All that...fewer sellers.

Buyers will now have to consider that their profit expectations are reduced (risk). Fewer buyers.

Fewer sellers, fewer buyers...less liquid.

That will affect anyone in the market, introducing a new layer of risk. Would also probably cause an immediate drop in market cap. Part of the value of any security drives from its tax treatment. Make that worse (increase risk), values drop.

A second- or third- order effect of the increased risk will be to drive money out of the US market into other markets around the world, and into other products.

And of course, obviously, higher taxes drive money out of the private sector into the deft hands of government (more risk). That's ALWAYS good, right?

Maybe a drop in liquidity and market cap is somehow good. How would I know? But I think a decrease in liquidity and market cap are easy effects to predict.

Why do you perceive that the current situation is bad?
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 Post subject: Re: Boeing Starliner: 80 Problems
PostPosted: 02 Jun 2023, 12:06 
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Why do you perceive that the current situation is bad?

because management of US companies is overly fixated on near-quarter results, and is competing with overseas companies that have a longer time horizon


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 Post subject: Re: Boeing Starliner: 80 Problems
PostPosted: 02 Jun 2023, 13:00 
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Make that "82 Problems".... Boeing finds 2 more serious problems.


I recently finished a very good biography of George W.S. Abbey, who was instrumental in unscrewing first the Apollo program (which had a lot of early teething problems that are not well recognized any more outside the spaceflight world) and then Shuttle and then ISS. In a similar situation with the Apollo CM/SM stack, NASA put all hands on deck and held the contractors' feet to the fire to get the promised and contracted performance. Abbey didn't make a lot of friends by doing this (I bet in particular that Harrison Storms of North American would've loved to strangle him) but he got the job done. As I was reading it, I had to wonder what he would have made of the Starliner situation, and I wonder where his spiritual descendants, if any, are at NASA now.


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 Post subject: Re: Boeing Starliner: 80 Problems
PostPosted: 02 Jun 2023, 16:14 
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Making stockholders hostages to stupid business decisions will really enhance the ability of people to depend on the market for their retirement.

That's just the point.

The object of the game isn't to make a better roulette wheel, it's to allow the individual to successfully bypass the casino entirely. There used to be a time when one could retire on the money in their savings account. Now programmed inflation makes that impossible, and the short-sighted shareholders make for a volatile and risky marketplace.

Those short-sighted shareholders drive the decisions of management in companies like Boeing, resulting in such debacles as Starliner and the 737 MAX.

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 Post subject: Re: Boeing Starliner: 80 Problems
PostPosted: 02 Jun 2023, 18:06 
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Yep, an illiquid stock market will be good for everyone. Making stockholders hostages to stupid business decisions will really enhance the ability of people to depend on the market for their retirement. Given that current law forces just about everyone into financial markets for any hope of retirement/return, that'll work great.


"just about everyone"

So, about 10% have the wherewithal to work outside the box.

Top2% could not give a rusty fart as they are forced to be so diversified, nothing really affects them accept insults from courtiers.

Next 6% are also diversified, but not to the extent that they could incite a war just because someone dissed them. They actually have some specific skill or insight that lets them focus on a particular market or something that turns out to be essential next year or so.**

next 2% find something local, like real estate or movie theatres (or popcorn franchises)

**(about Steve Jobs inventiveness - "I want all my albums on my phone... GET ON IT". - - Bill Burr.)

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 Post subject: Re: Boeing Starliner: 80 Problems
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2023, 05:13 
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There used to be a time when one could retire on the money in their savings account. Now programmed inflation makes that impossible, and the short-sighted shareholders make for a volatile and risky marketplace.

I am curious to know when was this time that you could retire on the money in your savings account. Are you implying that inflation did not impact the economy or peoples' pocketbook during some period? Or that savings account interest was higher than inflation? (which never happens)

And what is "programmed inflation"? Are you implying that inflation didn't exist at some point in the past or was not expected to happen? Prior to 1955 we repeatedly experienced material (and sometimes wild) swings of inflation and deflation.


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 Post subject: Re: Boeing Starliner: 80 Problems
PostPosted: 03 Jun 2023, 09:57 
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While Im not a student of Adam Smith, I will use him here.

The value of currency is only a reflection of what it can buy. If no one wants it or everyone has enough of it, its cheap.

As pointed out above, during war years (or other periods of strife), the availability of goods and services is either artificially restricted (cant freely move goods on pain of death) or intentionally restricted "for the war effort" -- a form of "Programmed Inflation" if you will. I'm positive, there is a lot of inflation in Ukraine right now.

After period of restriction, the end of war effort restrictions, there is generally an excess or "War surplus". Everything held is now freely available. Some of it is actually given away, further eroding the demand.

After 'Nam, I was able to kit myself out for practically nothing. Thats good, because I was unemployed, lived in a Hooch in the Desert waiting for my GI-bill to kick in.

I guess you could call artificial or imperative economic inputs like the pandemic to be a form of Programmed Inflation; but only in the way that the inflation was a response. The same way the price of lumber got inflated in Hiroshima for a while. This cause - effect relationship is clear, and understandable, but its rarely permanent.

In the old days (before Volker), they called it the Business Cycle; and many made their careers on it.

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 Post subject: Re: Boeing Starliner: 80 Problems
PostPosted: 04 Jun 2023, 00:04 
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Are you implying that inflation didn't exist at some point in the past or was not expected to happen? Prior to 1955 we repeatedly experienced material (and sometimes wild) swings of inflation and deflation.

I am speaking about Monitary inflation; https://whatismoney.info/monetary-inflation/ and ever since the early 1970s when Nixon took us off the gold standard, the effect has run wild, with people having to invest in something that outpaces that inflation in order to just hang on. That forces them into the market which itself has become volatile and risky.

Attachment:
IMG_0862.png


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 Post subject: Re: Boeing Starliner: 80 Problems
PostPosted: 04 Jun 2023, 05:56 
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Username Protected wrote:
Are you implying that inflation didn't exist at some point in the past or was not expected to happen? Prior to 1955 we repeatedly experienced material (and sometimes wild) swings of inflation and deflation.

I am speaking about Monitary inflation; https://whatismoney.info/monetary-inflation/ and ever since the early 1970s when Nixon took us off the gold standard, the effect has run wild, with people having to invest in something that outpaces that inflation in order to just hang on. That forces them into the market which itself has become volatile and risky.

Attachment:
IMG_0862.png


The number of economists that think the gold standard is a good idea is about the same as the number of doctors who think smoking is good for you.

The CPI and inflation are not the same thing. This is a good article describing the last 100 years or so, and the history of the gold standard (which is more complicated than suggested above): https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo ... -inflation

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 Post subject: Re: Boeing Starliner: 80 Problems
PostPosted: 04 Jun 2023, 11:45 
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Username Protected wrote:
I am speaking about Monitary inflation; https://whatismoney.info/monetary-inflation/ and ever since the early 1970s when Nixon took us off the gold standard, the effect has run wild, with people having to invest in something that outpaces that inflation in order to just hang on. That forces them into the market which itself has become volatile and risky.

Attachment:
IMG_0862.png

This chart which you posted is simply the summation of the yearly inflation in my chart. The only reason that CPI is basically flat from, 1776 to 1935 is because there are a continuing series of brutal recessions and depressions generally with about -30%+ decline in business activity to knock down (resetting) the CPI during those periods.

Since the early 70's there have been no recessions anywhere close to what the country would continually lurch seemingly every decade or two in the past. The '73 recession was only -3% and the '81 recession was less than 3%. Even '08 recession was only 5%. Covid was greater. And yes rather than letting the country fall into a 30's style multi year depression, the Govt juiced the economy.

Pick your poison - "program inflation" as you call it or a return to the "good old days" of
- from 1836 - 1938
* there were 6 depressions of over -30% drop in business activity lasting a total of 14 years
* there were 9 depressions of -20% to -30% drop in business activity lasting a total of 15 years
* there were 8 recession/depressions of -15% to - 20% drop in business activity lasting a total of 9 years.

That is 38 years of serious depressions during the 102 year period plus many more "mild" recessions (i.e. like 2008). It was boom- bust with a lot of pain for many during the "bust" inflation resets.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States#cite_note-Zarn-19


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