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 Post subject: Re: Lilium "Jet" flies
PostPosted: 25 Oct 2019, 18:50 
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Technically and regulatory issues aside, as a current helicopter operator, I think that the biggest hurdle to be overcome will be noise. It's an issue we face quite often considering most of our work is powerline construction/maintenance, ski lift construction, and firefighting, all operations that typically take place outside of heavily populated areas. NIMBY is a huge thing and these craft will have to be basically silent to not attract the ire of these types of people (who have a tendency to be a minority but a VERY vocal one). Most of the developers of these vehicles seem to have not even taken this obstacle into account (in my opinion).

I guarantee that landing pad was thoroughly pressure washed before filming so as not to show the massive prop wash throwing dirt everywhere.

You’ll never be landing these things at the mall. You’ll still need to use the airport.


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 Post subject: Re: Lilium "Jet" flies
PostPosted: 26 Oct 2019, 09:51 
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I don't honestly see this working - at all, with any foreseeable battery technology. 1200lbs of battery for a 30 minute range doesn't make any sense. That's followed by an 8 hour charging cycle if you want to have any life out of the battery.


1200 lbs for 1/2 hr is just fine if all you need is 1/2 hr endurance. Re-charge cycle is going to be 1/2 hr as well, that’s what it currently takes to charge a Tesla.


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 Post subject: Re: Lilium "Jet" flies
PostPosted: 26 Oct 2019, 12:35 
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I think that too often we miss the value of enabling technologies. Are current batteries enough to make this work? Barely. Is it a Bonanza or Cirri? Of course not.

But, the real value in building this thing is that it will force the creation of the regulatory framework and they'll solve most of the design problems of building human capable drones. They'll sort the ergonomics, redundancy, safety, business models, etc...

The first versions will have limited utility.. but so did the Wright flyer. Airplanes are what they are because they had 30 years of evolution beyond the Wright flyer (and then mostly stopped).

Build a good city-hopper human carrying drone and as soon as the next major evolution in battery tech happens, we now have a viable air taxi.

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 Post subject: Re: Lilium "Jet" flies
PostPosted: 26 Oct 2019, 14:01 
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Username Protected wrote:
I don't honestly see this working - at all, with any foreseeable battery technology. 1200lbs of battery for a 30 minute range doesn't make any sense. That's followed by an 8 hour charging cycle if you want to have any life out of the battery.


1200 lbs for 1/2 hr is just fine if all you need is 1/2 hr endurance. Re-charge cycle is going to be 1/2 hr as well, that’s what it currently takes to charge a Tesla.



No, it takes 75 minutes to fully charge a Tesla S at a supercharger. High rate charging to full capacity also degrades the life of the battery. (I've done it and the warning pops up on the screen).

Let's compare the nearest comparable vehicle: Robinson R66. It seats four, has a very lightweight small gas turbine engine with 224hp continuous and 270hp takeoff power.

Empty weight is 1290lbs and full gross is 2700lbs, seats 4.

Given the Lilium is supposed to seat 5, and currently seats 0, where are they going to strap in a 1200lb battery which is equal to the entire empty weight of a R66? Much less 5 human beings (even skinny ones at 170lbs each = 850lbs) - then all the structure and propulsion and instruments to form a flying machine?

Even if it were possible to build this imaginary vehicle, where would 5 people want to go in a 15 minute ride in a R66 today?

This is a fantasy, designed to consume investment dollars and create some fun for the people building it.

Like I said, it holds 0 people, not even crew, today.

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 Post subject: Re: Lilium "Jet" flies
PostPosted: 26 Oct 2019, 14:49 
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Like I said, it holds 0 people, not even crew, today.


This was an unmanned test flight on a new airframe with new type of propulsion. What would be the benefit of adding (risking) crew for flight tests when they can be safely on the ground?

At this point all that matters in regards to the "5-seater" claim is that there is physically room for 5 seats.

Given that they plan to have an aircraft in production by 2025, this looks like remarkable progress to me.


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 Post subject: Re: Lilium "Jet" flies
PostPosted: 26 Oct 2019, 14:54 
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There are many interesting details in their press release...
https://lilium.com/newsroom-detail/lili ... g-facility

Username Protected wrote:
Technically and regulatory issues aside, as a current helicopter operator, I think that the biggest hurdle to be overcome will be noise.


From an article on evtol.news:

Quote:
In cruise mode, the power consumption per km is comparable to an electric car. It produces zero emissions in flight and the aircraft is being certified as a fixed-wing aircraft. The aircraft is six (6) to seven (7) times quieter than a helicopter at take-off. Not only are their electric motors quieter than combustion engines but Lilium has developed a duct to adsorb as much noise as possible from the electric motors. Each engine is individually shielded so the failure of a single unit cannot affect the adjacent engines. The foreward canard will not be retractable.


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 Post subject: Re: Lilium "Jet" flies
PostPosted: 26 Oct 2019, 14:57 
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You’ll never be landing these things at the mall. You’ll still need to use the airport.


From the eVTOL news article quoted above:

Quote:
The company has stated they will create landing pads or Lili pads on the top of buildings and other areas, and that minimal infrastructure is needed for their Lili pads.


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 Post subject: Re: Lilium "Jet" flies
PostPosted: 26 Oct 2019, 15:00 
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Username Protected wrote:
Like I said, it holds 0 people, not even crew, today.


This was an unmanned test flight on a new airframe with new type of propulsion. What would be the benefit of adding (risking) crew for flight tests when they can be safely on the ground?

At this point all that matters in regards to the "5-seater" claim is that there is physically room for 5 seats.

Given that they plan to have an aircraft in production by 2025, this looks like remarkable progress to me.



There is room for 0 people onboard now.

Why do you think the windows are all blacked out?

Wishful thinking doesn't make stuff fly.

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 Post subject: Re: Lilium "Jet" flies
PostPosted: 26 Oct 2019, 16:53 
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The company has stated they will create landing pads or Lili pads on the top of buildings and other areas, and that minimal infrastructure is needed for their Lili pads.

What building is currently designed to handle all the traffic? What building owner would allow it? Insurance? Highest and best use of space?


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 Post subject: Re: Lilium "Jet" flies
PostPosted: 26 Oct 2019, 20:12 
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Let's compare the nearest comparable vehicle: Robinson R66. It seats four, has a very lightweight small gas turbine engine with 224hp continuous and 270hp takeoff power.

Empty weight is 1290lbs and full gross is 2700lbs, seats 4.

Given the Lilium is supposed to seat 5, and currently seats 0, where are they going to strap in a 1200lb battery which is equal to the entire empty weight of a R66? Much less 5 human beings (even skinny ones at 170lbs each = 850lbs) - then all the structure and propulsion and instruments to form a flying machine?

Even if it were possible to build this imaginary vehicle, where would 5 people want to go in a 15 minute ride in a R66 today?

This is a fantasy, designed to consume investment dollars and create some fun for the people building it.

Like I said, it holds 0 people, not even crew, today.


There is no point in comparing to R66. This is not a helicopter, it's a tiltrotor that flies like a plane, and 1,200 lbs power pack is entirely reasonable for this application. In my Bonanza, the total weight of propulsion system (engine plus fuel) is about 1,000 lbs, and here it would be somewhere around 1,300 - 1,400 lbs when electric motors are included. Plenty of room left for 4-5 passengers to fit under Bonanza's 3,600 lbs gross weight.

BTW, you have no idea how many people it can currently hold. Zero people on board (even if it's correct) likely has nothing to do with load capacity and everything to do with safety of the test flight.

As for where you can go in 15 minutes - just about anywhere in NYC, where it would take 2 hrs to drive in traffic. Uber is already running from Manhattan to JFK using conventional helicopters. It's a 7 min flight.


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 Post subject: Re: Lilium "Jet" flies
PostPosted: 26 Oct 2019, 20:40 
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As for where you can go in 15 minutes - just about anywhere in NYC, where it would take 2 hrs to drive in traffic. Uber is already running from Manhattan to JFK using conventional helicopters. It's a 7 min flight.


The company has no plans to sell the Lilium as an aircraft, only to operate an air taxi service in major metro areas around the world.

A better version of the Blade helo taxi service in NYC is a great place to start.


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 Post subject: Re: Lilium "Jet" flies
PostPosted: 26 Oct 2019, 20:45 
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The company has no plans to sell the Lilium as an aircraft, only to operate an air taxi service in major metro areas around the world.

A better version of the Blade helo taxi service in NYC is a great place to start.


Correct, that's what I was alluding to.


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 Post subject: Re: Lilium "Jet" flies
PostPosted: 27 Oct 2019, 14:49 
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Username Protected wrote:
The company has no plans to sell the Lilium as an aircraft, only to operate an air taxi service in major metro areas around the world.

A better version of the Blade helo taxi service in NYC is a great place to start.


Correct, that's what I was alluding to.



So, you investing in their venture round? :peace:

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 Post subject: Re: Lilium "Jet" flies
PostPosted: 28 Oct 2019, 23:32 
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So, you investing in their venture round? :peace:


Not a chance in hell. As I said before, I am very skeptical about making this whole urban air mobility concept into a profitable transportation system. The companies seem to be all focused on designing the vehicles and are making great progress, but the vehicle is maybe 20% of success here. The regulatory, logistical and economic challenges are the other 80%, and I am far from convinced they can be resolved in the any near future.


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 Post subject: Re: Lilium "Jet" flies
PostPosted: 28 Oct 2019, 23:48 
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Username Protected wrote:
So, you investing in their venture round? :peace:


Not a chance in hell. As I said before, I am very skeptical about making this whole urban air mobility concept into a profitable transportation system. The companies seem to be all focused on designing the vehicles and are making great progress, but the vehicle is maybe 20% of success here. The regulatory, logistical and economic challenges are the other 80%, and I am far from convinced they can be resolved in the any near future.


I think that the timeline is around 3 years before it happens on a large scale. Is is coming, absolutely.

Will we be better for it? Absolutely, I'll be able to ride my bicycle with worrying about being flattened by someone texting in their car.

As of my last count I think that there are over 25 companies working on this now.
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