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19 Apr 2024, 00:05 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Used Aircraft Market (Turbine) August 2019
PostPosted: 26 Aug 2019, 13:47 
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To say this has been a weird year for buying and selling used aircraft would be an understatement! Though we only operate on the "buy" side... I do talk to sellers and brokers, all day every day and most are saying it's been a roller-coaster year.

I wrote an article in January for King Air Magazine that was published in March, brokers called me and said "when did you write this!" that's how fast things change.

At Jet Acquisitions we have experienced a great year so far, and we are ahead of last year as far as number of clients who have hired us, and if we have a good fourth quarter it will be a record year. However, it has been very hard to find nice airplanes and negotiate good deals on them.

Oddly, even though inventory levels are dropping (especially on nice aircraft) we are not seeing an increase in sales prices. My take is that motivated sellers have sold and motivated buyers have bought.

It's also the dead of summer and most people typically fly airplanes in the summer not buy or sell them.

Interested to see what the BT BrainTrust thinks?

(sorry I'm only referring to turbines, I am clueless on the piston market)

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 Post subject: Re: Used Aircraft Market (Turbine) August 2019
PostPosted: 26 Aug 2019, 14:03 
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Just about Everybody that wants and can afford to buy a used turbine or GA piston plane one has one.

At Camarillo a very popular SoCal airport fuel sales are down 30% in the last 90 days.
Hangar demand is Zero.

2020 will be a very slow year for used piston and Turbines.


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 Post subject: Re: Used Aircraft Market (Turbine) August 2019
PostPosted: 26 Aug 2019, 15:16 
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Username Protected wrote:
At Camarillo a very popular SoCal airport fuel sales are down 30% in the last 90 days.
Hangar demand is Zero.
Fascinating. Is this a canary in a coal mine?

RV sales are down, and experts say that is a fairly reliable leading indicator.


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 Post subject: Re: Used Aircraft Market (Turbine) August 2019
PostPosted: 26 Aug 2019, 15:28 
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Username Protected wrote:
Interested to see what the BT BrainTrust thinks?

I see what Gerald sees and not just the airplane market. Cars, boats, watches, luxury real estate seem to be piling up. Not because demand isn't there but because manufacturers never slowed down their production once "everyone already bought one". Even rich folks can only own so much.

As for Controller.com. I've never seen so many planes listed for sale but at the same time Controller is notoriously bad when it comes to fake listings. Most of the time when I call a listing I get the old "we sold that nice one but we have this POS here that you might like". :D

This isn't a sign of a bad economy, just the opposite.

I also agree that summer has a lot to do with it. Now that school is back in session and business is back to work I think you'll see some changes through year end.


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 Post subject: Re: Used Aircraft Market (Turbine) August 2019
PostPosted: 26 Aug 2019, 15:39 
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Username Protected wrote:
2020 will be a very slow year for used piston and Turbines.


Historically any election year is slow, the Bonus Depreciation effect is going to be an interesting twist. We are already getting the calls about the possibility of buying an airplane to offset income taxes.

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 Post subject: Re: Used Aircraft Market (Turbine) August 2019
PostPosted: 26 Aug 2019, 15:57 
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Username Protected wrote:
I see what Gerald sees and not just the airplane market. Cars, boats, watches, luxury real estate seem to be piling up. Not because demand isn't there but because manufacturers never slowed down their production once "everyone already bought one". Even rich folks can only own so much.

As for Controller.com. I've never seen so many planes listed for sale but at the same time Controller is notoriously bad when it comes to fake listings. Most of the time when I call a listing I get the old "we sold that nice one but we have this POS here that you might like". :D

This isn't a sign of a bad economy, just the opposite.

I also agree that summer has a lot to do with it. Now that school is back in session and business is back to work I think you'll see some changes through year end.


I agree!

Especially about the fake or already sold listings on Controller.com it throws everything off and makes it very hard for me to determine what is actually going on in a specific market. I should be able to run a cool report and send it to my client, but I can't because half the info is bogus!

The interesting thing about turbine aircraft is that a huge percentage of our fleet is reaching an age where they aren't practical for the majority of buyers, especially if financing is required... more than 60 percent of the world fleet of turbine aircraft were built prior to 1986... as these older aircraft fall in price and desirability the remaining fleet is smaller than current demand. As the older aircraft reach very low acquisition prices they basically create more market, people who never thought they could afford an aircraft can.

The result is that Textron, Embraer, Pilatus, Socata, Cirrus, Honda, Falcon, Gulfstream and Bombardier keep building airplanes and selling them.

I don't think anyone has a bunch of white tails sitting around.

It's a big old world out there and I am consistently amazed at how many aircraft it demands. RV's, boats and houses... meh. They are a commodity.

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 Post subject: Re: Used Aircraft Market (Turbine) August 2019
PostPosted: 26 Aug 2019, 16:14 
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Username Protected wrote:
It's a big old world out there and I am consistently amazed at how many aircraft it demands. RV's, boats and houses... meh. They are a commodity.

Also, I don't see any slowdowns at any airports I frequent. All seem to be doing good business.


I've sold lots of "stuff" in the last year that was weighing me down and it feels great but I'm keeping the airplane. Can't live without it.


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 Post subject: Re: Used Aircraft Market (Turbine) August 2019
PostPosted: 26 Aug 2019, 16:46 
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Username Protected wrote:
It's a big old world out there and I am consistently amazed at how many aircraft it demands. RV's, boats and houses... meh. They are a commodity.

Also, I don't see any slowdowns at any airports I frequent. All seem to be doing good business.


I've sold lots of "stuff" in the last year that was weighing me down and it feels great but I'm keeping the airplane. Can't live without it.


I think the best indicator of what is happening in aviation is the MRO's, everyone is slammed... getting paint and interior done... get on the schedule for November / December. We have an airplane in prebuy at Textron right now, had to wait weeks just to get in.

We have a buddy deal with Stevens Aerospace in Nashville to get King Air / Citation prebuys done in a timely fashion and they have consistently delivered, but I can tell they are working twice as hard as they have in years past to keep up.

The West Star sales guy was just in here last week talking about all of the new facilities they have opened and how they are all full.

We have the relationships and know who to use and who to avoid... I feel bad for those who don't, I hear the horror stories after the fact.

It is so much harder to get airplanes worked on, flown, painted, you name it... the service side of our business is all but overwhelmed.

When will it end... who knows... these here are uncharted waters.
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 Post subject: Re: Used Aircraft Market (Turbine) August 2019
PostPosted: 26 Aug 2019, 16:58 
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It is so much harder to get airplanes worked on, flown, painted, you name it... the service side of our business is all but overwhelmed.

When will it end... who knows... these here are uncharted waters.

Yup. I see it too in everything. Try building a house right now or get anything worked on. I book my annual appointment with Epps 6 months in advance just so I know I have it. The main reason I sold the boat is all the losers I had to deal with to get something worked on. They tell you they'll do something, charge you and never do anything. It's crazy.

I hate to get political but when humans live in an environment where they don't have to do %#$@ in life.... they don't do %#$@. I think we had about a decade of kids getting worthless degrees in underwater basket weaving and there are no underwater basket weaving jobs.


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 Post subject: Re: Used Aircraft Market (Turbine) August 2019
PostPosted: 26 Aug 2019, 17:03 
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Sounds like a recession to me.

I'm experiencing the same in every aspect of life. Service businesses are at capacity. The economy is doing great. Ssshhh, don't tell CNN, it will spoil their narrative.


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 Post subject: Re: Used Aircraft Market (Turbine) August 2019
PostPosted: 26 Aug 2019, 17:40 
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Username Protected wrote:
I hate to get political but when humans live in an environment where they don't have to do %#$@ in life.... they don't do %#$@.
Doesn't sound political to me.


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 Post subject: Re: Used Aircraft Market (Turbine) August 2019
PostPosted: 26 Aug 2019, 18:52 
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Username Protected wrote:
I hate to get political but when humans live in an environment where they don't have to do %#$@ in life.... they don't do %#$@.
Doesn't sound political to me.


:lol: :lol: :rofl: :rofl:
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 Post subject: Re: Used Aircraft Market (Turbine) August 2019
PostPosted: 26 Aug 2019, 20:29 
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Username Protected wrote:
At Camarillo a very popular SoCal airport fuel sales are down 30% in the last 90 days.
Hangar demand is Zero.
Fascinating. Is this a canary in a coal mine?

RV sales are down, and experts say that is a fairly reliable leading indicator.


I flew into Elkhart, IN today. Talk was about the slow down. They have overproduced they said. I’m not an RV’r but have been impressed by the size of the inventory apparent across Florida lots. I hope they sell it!

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 Post subject: Re: Used Aircraft Market (Turbine) August 2019
PostPosted: 26 Aug 2019, 23:38 
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Username Protected wrote:

RV sales are down, and experts say that is a fairly reliable leading indicator.


I flew into Elkhart, IN today. Talk was about the slow down. They have overproduced they said. I’m not an RV’r but have been impressed by the size of the inventory apparent across Florida lots. I hope they sell it!


I wonder if the RV biz is like the boat and snowmobile businesses I used to be in (25 years ago).

The trick many manufacturers played was to “sell” product to the dealer, by way of floor plan. Even if the floorplan was in house to the manufacturer. Then the manufacturer could claim it “sold” but dealer inventory kept growing. Until the dealers finally choked on it all and said “f” this. Then the manufacturers didn’t see a slowdown, they went off a cliff.

The bottom line problem was they had the capacity and “financial need” to deliver way more product than the end user market could consume. The actual end user sales volume never really changed, the manufacturer volume is what changed.

FWIW... do not know if that is what is happening. Or, a twist on what Jason said is the buyer demand is steady, but the output is just way higher than it should be.

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 Post subject: Re: Used Aircraft Market (Turbine) August 2019
PostPosted: 27 Aug 2019, 06:13 
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FWIW... do not know if that is what is happening. Or, a twist on what Jason said is the buyer demand is steady, but the output is just way higher than it should be.

I think the answer to that question is "how fast do most folks upgrade airplanes if they just bought one"? Upgrading cars every year or 2 is easy. Buying and selling airplanes is a little more difficult and expensive. I personally can't see needing to upgrade so quickly unless I completely screwed up the original purchase.

What's that statistic? 99% of all GA flights are less than an hour with 1 or 2 pax on board?


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