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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Mar 2019, 11:00 
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Username Protected wrote:
Only 18 PC12's? Is that right? If that's the size of the market I don't see why Cessna would bother with the Denali.


18 PC-24 Jets, not 18 PC-12NGs
I made a typo in upper portion... now fixed.

Pilatus sold 80 PC-12 NGs
By comparison Textron sold 92 King Airs across all three platforms
12 each KA C90GTx
30 each KA 250
52 each KA 350i


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Mar 2019, 11:41 
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Username Protected wrote:
GA jets delivered in 2018:

Textron: 188
Bombardier: 137
Gulfstream: 121
Embraer: 91
Cirrus: 63
Dassault: 41
Honda: 37
Pilatus: 18
Boeing: 6
Airbus: 1
One Aviation: 0

Mike C.

Why don't you just post "single pilot" jet deliveries? That's what we're talking about.


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Mar 2019, 11:44 
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Username Protected wrote:
Wonder where the the right balance exists between breadth of product line and willingness/ability to innovate more quickly?

The entire single pilot GA market could be serviced by just Cirrus and Pilatus.

SR20
SR22
SF50
PC12
PC24

That's some serious market focus.


Pretty big gap between the 1 mil 22T and the 3 mil SF50 and the 3 mil SF50 and the 5 mil PC12. Another big gap between the 5 mil PC12 and the 10 mil PC24. Personally glad there are more choices than that.
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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Mar 2019, 12:00 
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Username Protected wrote:
Pretty big gap between the 1 mil 22T and the 3 mil SF50 and the 3 mil SF50 and the 5 mil PC12. Another big gap between the 5 mil PC12 and the 10 mil PC24. Personally glad there are more choices than that.

Those gaps exists regardless. They're not big gaps. And there's always the used market.


Last edited on 18 Mar 2019, 12:04, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Mar 2019, 12:03 
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Username Protected wrote:
Pretty big gap between the 1 mil 22T and the 3 mil SF50 and the 3 mil SF50 and the 5 mil PC12. Another big gap between the 5 mil PC12 and the 10 mil PC24. Personally glad there are more choices than that.

I was looking at the gap at the other end. which one of those can I put on skis to land on the frozen river for some ice fishing ? That's single pilot GA. Ditto for spraying beetles in the summer.


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Mar 2019, 12:07 
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Here's the Single Pilot jet sales 2018

Here’s the full year 2018 GAMA report.
https://gama.aero/wp-content/uploads/20 ... 202019.pdf

Cirrus SF50 63
Phenom 300 53
Hondajet 37 pretty good. Out selling the M2
M2 32
CJ3+ 37
PC-12 80
PC-24 18
Eclipse 0


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Mar 2019, 12:47 
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Username Protected wrote:
Here's the Single Pilot jet sales 2018

Here’s the full year 2018 GAMA report.
https://gama.aero/wp-content/uploads/20 ... 202019.pdf

Cirrus SF50 63
Phenom 300 53
Hondajet 37 pretty good. Out selling the M2
M2 32
CJ3+ 37
PC-12 80
PC-24 18
Eclipse 0


Not sure what your point is Jason. I don't think most people want just a choice between Cirrus and Pilatus. Leaves a lot of open gaps.
Here is about a billion dollars worth of single pilot aircraft that sold in 2018, that weren't Cirrus or Pilatus. Take out the KA350 that is 2 pilot? right?

Attachment:
1.jpg


Attachment:
2.jpg


Attachment:
3.jpg


Attachment:
4.jpg


Please login or Register for a free account via the link in the red bar above to download files.

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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Mar 2019, 13:12 
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Username Protected wrote:
Not sure what your point is Jason. I don't think most people want just a choice between Cirrus and Pilatus. Leaves a lot of open gaps.
Here is about a billion dollars worth of single pilot aircraft that sold in 2018, that weren't Cirrus or Pilatus. Take out the KA350 that is 2 pilot? right?


KA 350 can be flown single pilot, but requires a type rating

But your point is well taken, a lot of potential overlap in the segment of the market served by SETPs, Twin Turboprops and very light jets.


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Mar 2019, 13:17 
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Jason, you left out Phenom 100EV, and PC 12, while outstanding, isn't a single pilot jet.
From earlier post in ascending price order...sort of...

Cirrus SF250; 63

M2; 34
Phenom 100EV; 11
Honda Jet; 37

CJ3+; 37

CJ4; 29
Phenom 300; 53

PC-24 18

Also, while Honda Jet #s certainly impressive, appear to be a lot of pre-owned on Controller, (16), relative to total fleet size.


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Mar 2019, 14:06 
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Username Protected wrote:
Jason, you left out Phenom 100EV, and PC 12, while outstanding, isn't a single pilot jet.
.

A single pilot "jet" isn't a single pilot "jet".... It's a "single pilot ducted turbofan". PC12 is a "single pilot non-ducted turbofan". They quit making "jets" a long time ago.

I don't care what the "generalization" is. I care about going from point A to point B with as little friction as possible.


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Mar 2019, 14:12 
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Username Protected wrote:
Not sure what your point is Jason. I don't think most people want just a choice between Cirrus and Pilatus. Leaves a lot of open gaps.

Geez dude... don't overthink it so much. I posed a theory (bare bones market hypothetical). Thank god we live in a free market and we have lots of options available to us.

The original point was (if you're reading the thread) that Textron has TOO MANY airplanes for sale and they could whittle it down tremendously. Here's what I'd do:

1. Re-design the KA350 and dump the rest of the KA's.
2. Re-certify the XLS as single pilot and make a few changes so it could be the biggest and best single pilot certified jet on the market.
3. Dump the CJ4 but keep the M2 and the CJ3+.
4. Dump the pistons minus the 172

In summary, my ideal single pilot Textron lineup would be:
172 (and variants)
M2
New design KA350
CJ3+
SP XLS


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Mar 2019, 14:34 
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I would maintain that Cessna does and is dominating the market, sure they have competition, there’s no such thing as being the only player that has ever been in a lucrative space.

What isn’t considered in the above is transactions per manufacturer, sure new deliveries are an important data point, but what about preowned sales?

An example is the Honda Jet outselling the M2... true, but what about all M2’s new and used, add to that all CJ1’s, CJ1+... Honda new and used wouldn’t come close.

Textron’s main competition is not Embraer or Honda... it’s their own product on the used market.

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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Mar 2019, 14:37 
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Username Protected wrote:
I would maintain that Cessna does and is dominating the market, sure they have competition, there’s no such thing as being the only player that has ever been in a lucrative space.

What isn’t considered in the above is transactions per manufacturer, sure new deliveries are an important data point, but what about preowned sales?

An example is the Honda Jet outselling the M2... true, but what about all M2’s new and used, add to that all CJ1’s, CJ1+... Honda new and used wouldn’t come close.

Textron’s main competition is not Embraer or Honda... it’s their own product on the used market.

Used sales don't make a company profitable. Profit = R&D, future designs, future sales.

If Textrons' competition is making more money than Textron, regardless of revenue that equates to the competition having the ability to outmaneuver Textron as time goes on... which is why it's bad to let competitors into your space.

Of course this is all BADM101. I'm not saying anything everyone doesn't already understand.... am I? :D


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Mar 2019, 14:45 
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Username Protected wrote:
Interesting that the Phenom 300 appears to be selling much more strongly in its category than the Phenom 100EV.


I don't have any data to support this other than what I see on the ramps and in the news, but I'm betting a lot of those P300 sales go to NetJets.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... et-NetJets


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Mar 2019, 14:47 
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Username Protected wrote:
Not sure what your point is Jason. I don't think most people want just a choice between Cirrus and Pilatus. Leaves a lot of open gaps.

Geez dude... don't overthink it so much. I posed a theory (bare bones market hypothetical). Thank god we live in a free market and we have lots of options available to us.

The original point was (if you're reading the thread) that Textron has TOO MANY airplanes for sale and they could whittle it down tremendously. Here's what I'd do:

1. Re-design the KA350 and dump the rest of the KA's.
2. Re-certify the XLS as single pilot and make a few changes so it could be the biggest and best single pilot certified jet on the market.
3. Dump the CJ4 but keep the M2 and the CJ3+.
4. Dump the pistons minus the 172

In summary, my ideal single pilot Textron lineup would be:
172 (and variants)
M2
New design KA350
CJ3+
SP XLS


KA 350 requires a type rating.... would put at a bit of a disadvantage
ref other turboprops.

Do we need a new thread called, "does Beech/Cessna/Textron have too many platforms in the single pilot/owner operator space". Subtitled, "if king for a day, what changes would you make?"

Last edited on 18 Mar 2019, 14:53, edited 2 times in total.

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