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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 17 Dec 2018, 15:49 
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I’m almost 50 and only have 5 patents. Guess I better quit wasting time on BT and get back to work...

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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 17 Dec 2018, 15:57 
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I’m in my mid forties and I have zero patents but I swear, back in the 1980s, I thought of a wonderful invention. A video recorder that would record a few minutes ahead, let you start watching your favorite show a few minutes after it started, and thus be able to fast forward through the commercials.

But I didn’t tell anybody and so here I am today, on BT, in good company with my fellow schlubs.

:D


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Dec 2018, 20:30 
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If Pilatus and Denali are selling 100 units each per year it's because folks are ditching their jets.... which may well happen.

I can see that happening.

Oil over $100/barrel. Lots of triggers for that.

More than the jets, however, is I see folks moving out of King Airs to get something faster, higher, and better pressurization. The Denali looks like a pretty big step up in performance and lower cost than a King Air. King Air 250 is now busting $7M each. If you aren't hung up about having two motors, then a Denali beats the pants off the King Air 250 for less money.

Personally, I like two engines, but my two engines cost WAY less to operate than the ONE engine on a PC-12. Remains to be seen how expensive or not the GE engine is. Always kind of nervous to buy an airplane that is the first user of an engine type. I guarantee that Textron has a PT6 option in the drawings they can go to. I suspect they want to use the GE engine because they got a great deal on them as a launch customer, and to let PWC know they need to play nicer or we might see King Airs with GE engines soon. Boeing and Airbus play the engine vendor game, too, to great success.

The pressurization difference is a bigger deal than one might imagine. It means operating higher altitudes with less fatigue for both passengers and crew. It will be a big selling point.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Dec 2018, 21:09 
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Username Protected wrote:
I’m in my mid forties and I have zero patents but I swear, back in the 1980s, I thought of a wonderful invention. A video recorder that would record a few minutes ahead, let you start watching your favorite show a few minutes after it started, and thus be able to fast forward through the commercials.

But I didn’t tell anybody and so here I am today, on BT, in good company with my fellow schlubs.

:D

[youtube]https://youtu.be/efHzGxEzDQA[/youtube]

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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Dec 2018, 21:48 
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Username Protected wrote:
I can see that happening.

Oil over $100/barrel. Lots of triggers for that.

More than the jets, however, is I see folks moving out of King Airs to get something faster, higher, and better pressurization. The Denali looks like a pretty big step up in performance and lower cost than a King Air. King Air 250 is now busting $7M each. If you aren't hung up about having two motors, then a Denali beats the pants off the King Air 250 for less money.

Personally, I like two engines, but my two engines cost WAY less to operate than the ONE engine on a PC-12. Remains to be seen how expensive or not the GE engine is. Always kind of nervous to buy an airplane that is the first user of an engine type. I guarantee that Textron has a PT6 option in the drawings they can go to. I suspect they want to use the GE engine because they got a great deal on them as a launch customer, and to let PWC know they need to play nicer or we might see King Airs with GE engines soon. Boeing and Airbus play the engine vendor game, too, to great success.

The pressurization difference is a bigger deal than one might imagine. It means operating higher altitudes with less fatigue for both passengers and crew. It will be a big selling point.

Mike C.

According to the Premier thread, one can buy a 2018 KA350 right now for under $6MM.


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Dec 2018, 22:39 
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Username Protected wrote:
If Pilatus and Denali are selling 100 units each per year it's because folks are ditching their jets.... which may well happen.


The pressurization difference is a bigger deal than one might imagine. It means operating higher altitudes with less fatigue for both passengers and crew. It will be a big selling point.

Mike C.


I agree with you Mike, this is huge. It is not something I realized until reaching the flight levels.
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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Dec 2018, 22:49 
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Username Protected wrote:
...But I didn’t tell anybody and so here I am today, on BT, in good company with my fellow schlubs.

:D

[I couldda been a contenda!]


:lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Dec 2018, 23:19 
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Right now it is just the same as some upstart company that is working on some new super whiz bang plane that is going to meet some amazing specs.

No company has a better history of delivering on development projects than Cessna/Textron.

No company has a better service and support network, either.

Those are MAJOR distinctions from your "upstart company" comment.

Mike C.


Mike -

Have you ever looked at the support network or aircraft that Gulfstream built? Their ability to innovate with their partners has been nothing short of amazing. Years ago they would send a G-IV or G-V to pick up a stranded customer/owner. They would also send a KingAir or baby Gulfstream to you with the parts and mechanics to get your bird back in the air.

In 1998 they developed the first wireless internet on an aircraft, allowing businesspeople to continue to communicate electronically, albeit slowly. I can't recall who the patent is under but I knew the snot-nosed 23 year old kid that engineered everything that interfaced with the Magellan and know the EE who made it work within the aircraft. Some of the airborne internet providers have former Gulfstream employees on their payroll or formerly on their payroll. They do it differently than Gulfstream and have a myriad of different patents.

They were a huge innovator in safety and they were the first civilian airliner to have a HUD with synthetic vision. Boeing still owns the patent, from the 50s, to use doppler to detect turbulence while airborne.

They did fight with the Citation X to earn the fastest title and they certainly have longer legs. Gulfstream is continuing to build aircraft and innovate.

In my opinion, Gulfstream still takes the cake for customer service and innovation. Cessna certainly is amazing across a whole fleet of piston and turbine aircraft. ...but there is just something about a G-V and G-650 as well as the customer service that follows that $68M-$70M bird.

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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 18 Dec 2018, 23:56 
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Sadly, I see no innovation in the Denali. Just a re branded PC 12 with a different engine. I see no innovation in other Beech/Cessna products. They seem to be happy milking the 50 yr old cows they have.
I also think Pilatus will not stay in the sidelines and watch a direct competitor to their own cash cow come and succeed. I am sure they have something ready to be revealed at the time Denali is ready to ship.

Rgs

Patrick


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 19 Dec 2018, 02:07 
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Username Protected wrote:
Sadly, I see no innovation in the Denali.

Perfect.

The things that kill or delay new airplanes are the gratuitously new or innovative bits.

Just build a damn good airplane, even if it is mundane.

Innovation in aviation is not the key to success, it is often the omen of failure.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 19 Dec 2018, 02:12 
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Cessna certainly is amazing across a whole fleet of piston and turbine aircraft. ...but there is just something about a G-V and G-650 as well as the customer service that follows that $68M-$70M bird.

Well, I can own a $1M Citation, and the Textron Mobile Service Unit (MSU) will come and do something for me that won't cost me an arm and a leg.

And because there are so many MSUs, 60 of them at present distributed all over the world, they DON'T need to fly a Gulfstream to reach you in a few short hours.

For a Denali owner, having Gulfstream support would kill their budget.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 19 Dec 2018, 06:55 
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The Denali will have something the PC-12 can never have, the Textron service network.

One area the Denali could beat PC-12 is engine reserve costs. The PT6A-67 is major $$$ in that area and the GE engine could be significantly less.

The Denali doesn't have to do a single thing better than a PC-12 to be a success.

Mike C.


Seems most owner/operators of SETP’s don’t put enough hours on to ever see OH and thus don’t consider it closely, enough. They should, Pratt has a tendency to wrap a shroud of “mystery” around a fact of life HSI’s and OH’s. Parts and labor. P&W have maximal opprobrium from this client.

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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 19 Dec 2018, 09:59 
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Username Protected wrote:
Sadly, I see no innovation in the Denali.

Perfect.

The things that kill or delay new airplanes are the gratuitously new or innovative bits.

Just build a damn good airplane, even if it is mundane.

Innovation in aviation is not the key to success, it is often the omen of failure.

Mike C.

not just airplanes
how much further would tesla be today if they hadn't caused themselves so many production problems on earlier models with nonsense like those doors ? Things that have nothing to do with electric propulsion

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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 19 Dec 2018, 11:59 
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One area the Denali could beat PC-12 is engine reserve costs. The PT6A-67 is major $$$ in that area and the GE engine could be significantly less.


Maybe so. It will be interesting to see what the extended TBOs do to reliability.

Working out the bugs of a new engine, and trying longer a TBO; seems like a SETP wouldn't be the best plane to try this new engine out on.


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 19 Dec 2018, 12:15 
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Working out the bugs of a new engine, and trying longer a TBO; seems like a SETP wouldn't be the best plane to try this new engine out on.

That was one of my Pilatus salesman's points when I was trying to buy a new Pilatus.... Pilatus is having a lot of growing pains with the PC24. Gotta work the bugs out. You don't want to be serial number 1 on the Denali. You're gonna want to give it a couple years of flying before buying one.

The Denali still hasn't even flown yet. Still lots to learn. Who knows when the 1st delivery will be? Could be a couple more years.


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