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 Post subject: Re: Lancair VTOL?
PostPosted: 05 May 2018, 11:04 
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Username Protected wrote:
A lot of bright people working on this

Any with MBAs? If so, I hope they have answered these questions:

Who are the customers?

What will it cost?

When will it be ready?

How will it be certified?

What is the liability?

If the project is a skunk works funded by a rich person's money with no profit motive, that's one thing, but if they are investor funded with a target towards returning a profit, its a 99.9% chance of a bust.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Lancair VTOL?
PostPosted: 05 May 2018, 12:48 
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Mike,
It’s funded by a very rich person, and the initial intended use is non-commercial, but they will own the Intellectual Property in the process of designing the various components, controls and power plants, which will likely lead to some future revenue streams outside of this project.
I’ll have to find out how much I can say about the project before I can get into any real detail.


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 Post subject: Re: Lancair VTOL?
PostPosted: 05 May 2018, 13:46 
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Username Protected wrote:
It’s funded by a very rich person

One thing is for certain, they will be less rich at the end of it.

As a rich person's dabble, this is okay. As a business, it sucks.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Lancair VTOL?
PostPosted: 05 May 2018, 13:57 
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Username Protected wrote:
Mike,
It’s funded by a very rich person, and the initial intended use is non-commercial, but they will own the Intellectual Property in the process of designing the various components, controls and power plants, which will likely lead to some future revenue streams outside of this project.
I’ll have to find out how much I can say about the project before I can get into any real detail.

Curious how much different the IP will be on a "human sized" version vs. the little ones that have been flying around for years?


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 Post subject: Re: Lancair VTOL?
PostPosted: 05 May 2018, 20:07 
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JC,
it’s not a drone, the pods articulate and the craft transitions to horizontal flight similar to an Osprey.
I assume you’re referring to drones.
The IP will be in power storage, charging stations, controls, inverters etc.. there’s more than just the aircraft being designed. Electric flight is very limited in range so charging becomes a critical part of the process. Beta is working on some ‘infrastructure’ for it in parallel with the aircraft design.


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 Post subject: Re: Lancair VTOL?
PostPosted: 05 May 2018, 22:42 
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Location: Burlington VT KBTV
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Username Protected wrote:
A lot of bright people working on this

Any with MBAs? If so, I hope they have answered these questions:

Who are the customers?

What will it cost?

When will it be ready?

How will it be certified?

What is the liability?

If the project is a skunk works funded by a rich person's money with no profit motive, that's one thing, but if they are investor funded with a target towards returning a profit, its a 99.9% chance of a bust.

Mike C.


God bless innovation and people willing to fund high risk projects and pipe dreams! I love it

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 Post subject: Re: Lancair VTOL?
PostPosted: 28 Aug 2018, 15:29 
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Username Protected wrote:
A lot of bright people working on this

Any with MBAs? If so, I hope they have answered these questions:

Who are the customers?

What will it cost?

When will it be ready?

How will it be certified?

What is the liability?

If the project is a skunk works funded by a rich person's money with no profit motive, that's one thing, but if they are investor funded with a target towards returning a profit, its a 99.9% chance of a bust.

Mike C.


In 1985, the then dominant telecom company, AT&T hired the MBA’est of MBA advisory firms (McKinsey & Co.) to forecast a 15 year market adoption of the then nascent “cellphone”. Google “Motorola DynaTAC 8000x” for a state-of-the art from the time.

McKinsey & Co. came back with a forecast of 900,000 subscribers by 2000. Actual number was 109million. Brilliant & expensive MBAs were only off by ~120x.

Steve Ballmer (an MBA dropout - but still did OK.. ) said in 2007 “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No Chance...”

Daniel Carp - ex CEO of Kodak (no less that two MBAs - one from Rochester, and the other from none other than esteemed MIT) said in 2001, “A great brand, a great balance sheet, cash flow. This is a very smart time to be in the picture business.” Fast forward 12 years - Kodak was bankrupt.

MBAs are not a cure-all for innovation business thinking. Sometimes, for innovative & disruptive businesses, they are actually a disease (and I have an MBA and work in disruptive technology).

Kelly Johnson would have punched a “traditional” MBA in the nose, probably gotten fired, and then we’d not have the P-38, P-80, F-104, U2, SR-71, F-117, and a bunch of other amazing advancements that “traditional” MBAs would have said “that’s impossible!”. So, yeah, a “skunk works” can do really impressive (and profitable) stuff for sure.

God speed to these folks working to innovate in the aviation sector.

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 Post subject: Re: Lancair VTOL?
PostPosted: 28 Aug 2018, 19:03 
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Quote:
We are all pilots -- licensed or in training -- and we are deeply passionate about transforming the way we fly, for the good of the planet, for a better future and because we can think of nothing more challenging and rewarding.
'Nuf said...


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 Post subject: Re: Lancair VTOL?
PostPosted: 14 Apr 2021, 14:18 
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Joined: 12/15/10
Posts: 593
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Location: Burlington VT KBTV
Aircraft: C441 N441WD
Username Protected wrote:
A lot of bright people working on this

Any with MBAs? If so, I hope they have answered these questions:

Who are the customers?

What will it cost?

When will it be ready?

How will it be certified?

What is the liability?

If the project is a skunk works funded by a rich person's money with no profit motive, that's one thing, but if they are investor funded with a target towards returning a profit, its a 99.9% chance of a bust.

Mike C.


Well Mike....It's working out to be the 0.01% of a non-bust:

https://www.aviationtoday.com/2021/04/0 ... -aircraft/

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/13/eva-mak ... blade.html

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 Post subject: Re: Lancair VTOL?
PostPosted: 14 Apr 2021, 14:45 
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Location: Atlanta, GA
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Username Protected wrote:
Seems it is a project from these folks:

http://beta.team/

Aircraft seems to be this one:

http://registry.faa.gov/aircraftinquiry ... ertxt=925U

Mike C.



^This

They started with the Lancair, but have shifted in the design.

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 Post subject: Re: Lancair VTOL?
PostPosted: 14 Apr 2021, 15:41 
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Yes, ‘Ava’the Lancair was a guinea pig and ‘Alea’,the clean sheet design bird is the next gen result of investor money rolling in.


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