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13 Dec 2019, 11:21 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


Greenwich AeroGroup



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 Post subject: Re: TBM VS Epic LT
PostPosted: 16 Nov 2019, 11:08 
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Username Protected wrote:

There is a thread in COPA about this issue. A few insurance guys mentioned the high profile, high dollar amount total losses over the past 18 months which is driving the premium increase.

Tim

Yup. And the economy is good and they don't need any of us.


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 Post subject: Re: TBM VS Epic LT
PostPosted: 16 Nov 2019, 11:55 
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My renewal was 70% higher than last year. The broker cited “737 Max losses to the industry” as the cause and said rates would moderate next year. That may be contributing but insurance pricing operates in a cycle and it hasn’t been good overall in the aviation market which has a very few players. I don’t follow this market at all as I do commercial and personal lines. But despite a huge amount of money sloshing around in the reinsurance markets carriers can’t afford to take continual losses in small markets as they have in the past with underwriting profits nil and investment earnings lower due to prolonged low interest rate environment.

A serious discussion with a broker would need to be had before a change in aircraft. Adam is dead wrong about buying an older plane to save money on costs. It’s the liability premium that drives rate and you’d be an idiot or irresponsible or both not to cover liability for innocents you may hurt or your net worth you may destroy.


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 Post subject: Re: TBM VS Epic LT
PostPosted: 16 Nov 2019, 12:07 
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Username Protected wrote:
It’s the liability premium that drives rate
I know an Aerostar isn't a multi-million dollar TP, but my insurance breakdown shows less than 20% going to liability. That's on a $2M / $225k hull policy. So as usual, "it depends". For relatively lower value planes like mine or (presumably) Adam's, liability-only can make sense.


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 Post subject: Re: TBM VS Epic LT
PostPosted: 16 Nov 2019, 12:28 
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Username Protected wrote:

A serious discussion with a broker would need to be had before a change in aircraft. Adam is dead wrong about buying an older plane to save money on costs. It’s the liability premium that drives rate and you’d be an idiot or irresponsible or both not to cover liability for innocents you may hurt or your net worth you may destroy.


That's what I'm saying. Get liability, ditch hull. Even if it's liability that's driving up the costs, surely liability only will be cheaper than liability + hull?

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Last edited on 16 Nov 2019, 12:47, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: TBM VS Epic LT
PostPosted: 16 Nov 2019, 12:33 
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The hull portion represents more than 75% of my total premium. This is on a $2M/$935k policy. I don't see fault in Adam's reasoning, provided you're willing to self-insure against the loss of your aircraft.


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 Post subject: Re: TBM VS Epic LT
PostPosted: 16 Nov 2019, 12:50 
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The hull portion represents more than 75% of my total premium. This is on a $2M/$935k policy. I don't see fault in Adam's reasoning, provided you're willing to self-insure against the loss of your aircraft.


Yep, my hull+liabality premium was about 5x liability only.

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 Post subject: Re: TBM VS Epic LT
PostPosted: 16 Nov 2019, 12:53 
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I'd love a faster SETP and I don't need the room of the Pilatus anymore but I do need the lav.

The Epic is a game changer. I wonder how much it would take for them to get the G3000 in there? Autoland? Seems like "just a little more money" behind this company could push it to where it needs to be.


Sounds like TBM940 suits your needs.

Realistically, while the funding behind Epic is substantial, do not expect any changes/updates in near future. They presently have 3+ year backorder to fulfill and refining production line is the primary focus. In time its likely they will be forced to update Garmin suite as Garmin tends to control oe offerings through product support and product delivery constraints. I personally am looking for Honeywell-BendixKing to make more aggressive push into oe sector but we shall see.


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 Post subject: Re: TBM VS Epic LT
PostPosted: 16 Nov 2019, 15:08 
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Sounds like TBM940 suits your needs.


The problem with the TBM is the million $$+ you lose the day you drive it off the lot. I'm sure it's probably the same with the Epic though.

I didn't know Epic has that kind of order back log. That's great.


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 Post subject: Re: TBM VS Epic LT
PostPosted: 16 Nov 2019, 15:15 
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Username Protected wrote:
Sounds like TBM940 suits your needs.


The problem with the TBM is the million $$+ you lose the day you drive it off the lot. I'm sure it's probably the same with the Epic though.

I didn't know Epic has that kind of order back log. That's great.


That's only a problem for the first owner. It's also typical. I know the PC12 has enjoyed atypical depreciation, but that should change once the Denali enters the market.

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 Post subject: Re: TBM VS Epic LT
PostPosted: 16 Nov 2019, 15:18 
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That's only a problem for the first owner. It's also typical. I know the PC12 has enjoyed atypical depreciation, but that should change once the Denali enters the market.

Agreed. If and when the Denali enters the market.

The big difference betweeen TBM depreciation and PC-12 depreciation is PC-12 is mainly a charter airplane. There’s a big market for them. There will be for Denali too.


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 Post subject: Re: TBM VS Epic LT
PostPosted: 16 Nov 2019, 15:25 
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That's only a problem for the first owner. It's also typical. I know the PC12 has enjoyed atypical depreciation, but that should change once the Denali enters the market.

Agreed. If and when the Denali enters the market.

The big difference betweeen TBM depreciation and PC-12 depreciation is PC-12 is mainly a charter airplane. There’s a big market for them. There will be for Denali too.


That's true. A very robust used market all the way down the spectrum. Nobody wants a 3500 hour personal SETP like TBM or Meridian, but that's low time for a "workhorse" like the PC12.

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 Post subject: Re: TBM VS Epic LT
PostPosted: 16 Nov 2019, 18:08 
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Username Protected wrote:
The problem with the TBM is the million $$+ you lose the day you drive it off the lot. I'm sure it's probably the same with the Epic though.


TBM used market volatility is largely due to Daher's aggressive development of aircraft. When 850's arrived, 700 values plummeted. It's been worse for 850'ssince 900's arrived; the 850 values were literally halved. As I considered TBM930, I was looking at 4-5 year old 900's w/700 hours and they were $3.5M+.

The Epic LT's, while experimental, are still in the $1.6-2M range for a kit that sold for $1.2 new. The slot prices are equal to my $250k deposit in today's market after 2 years. I was early to get the $3M early pricing that is now $3.25M. I was told there are 86 sold slots as of this Summer. All indications appear to suggest demand exceeding supply.

Despite fact this will be my 4th aircraft in last 6 years, 58P-340A-Solitaire-E1000, I anticipate this will be a longterm purchase for my forseeable missions but one never knows. If longterm resale is a concern, the PC12 and KingAir are the "safest bets" but anything GA is subject to volatility.


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 Post subject: Re: TBM VS Epic LT
PostPosted: 16 Nov 2019, 18:19 
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An owner operator doesn’t need anything more than an E1000. You’ll probably have it for a while.


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 Post subject: Re: TBM VS Epic LT
PostPosted: 17 Nov 2019, 09:25 
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Despite fact this will be my 4th aircraft in last 6 years, 58P-340A-Solitaire-E1000, I anticipate this will be a longterm purchase for my forseeable missions but one never knows. If longterm resale is a concern, the PC12 and KingAir are the "safest bets" but anything GA is subject to volatility.

Can't wait to hear your write up, very exciting. Has Epic mentioned anything about icing cert yet? Boots on the wing and tail?

Chip-


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 Post subject: Re: TBM VS Epic LT
PostPosted: 17 Nov 2019, 12:53 
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Has Epic mentioned anything about icing cert yet? Boots on the wing and tail?

Chip-


Yes, certified version E1000 is FIKI certified. Includes boots, heated prop, pitot and windscreen. Also the heated diverter inlet butterfly used in many PT6's.


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