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 Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX
PostPosted: 08 Feb 2018, 10:50 
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Tyler yes to all [xthreex] four of your points.
Explain the first one in a little more detail? About scheduling.

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 Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX
PostPosted: 08 Feb 2018, 11:00 
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Hard to argue with the innovation:

A Tesla roadster weighs 1300kg, and it costs NASA $20,000 a kg to use an Atlas V to put something into LEO. So, that is a $26M ! Musk says he can do it for $1,700 a kg or a mere $2.2M .... Cheaper than a superbowl ad, and by far the coolest dummy payload ever.


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 Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX
PostPosted: 08 Feb 2018, 11:06 
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Tyler yes to all three of your points.
Explain the first one in a little more detail? About scheduling.


There were four :peace:

We all poo poo’d SpaceX in the beginning because we knew all too well how the NRO hangs up our boosters in encapsulation and and after mate. They tie up your pad and call on the shots (and they pay for all of it), but the bottom line is your completely hamstrung by them and their billion dollar payload. Good luck telling them that they’re blowing up your schedule. Air Force does it too but not nearly as bad.

Ente SpaceX saying “we’ve got a launch going on March 14th who wants to ride, and by the way it’s a third of the cost of DIV”. We knew the government launches would never go for that, because they control the schedule. If they push that vehicle back 5 months nothing goes before it. SpaceX biz model breaks down. The commercial launches are fine with it, but if SpaceX gets ground to a halt it’s hard for them to keep offering at a third of DIV.

Well now (I think) we are seeing AF and even the NRO to say hey, let’s think about this other ride and see if we can make some of our payloads work on it.

In the end I think SpaceX is enlarging the pie, not just taking more slices of it. And they’re bringing commercial launches back to the us mainland. And they’re taking the reuse idea (something proven to be a failure and penciled our to be as well) and running with it and I think it might surprise us all in the end. I’ve turned from a SpaceX snickerer to a bit of a fan ...slowly :D

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 Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX
PostPosted: 08 Feb 2018, 22:46 
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Then the "live" Starman cameras are not.

Still showing Starman in Earth orbit, so the "live" video has been a recorded loop since well before the last burn.

When I first heard of the payload, the Tesla roadster, I thought that was stupid. I thought there must be some scientific payload they could put on the rocket for free even at the risk of loss. Getting things into space is so hard, especially interplanetary space, that somebody would want to do that if they could.

But after seeing the payload in orbit, I think there was a bit of brilliance to this. The images of Starman cruising outer space in a car provided a kind of personal connection to the public. Who can't look at the photos and not imagine themselves, top down, zooming between.

Now I know this is all fantasy and so does (almost) everyone else who saw it. But then, we go to the movies and know everything is fantasy as well, but yet there is a lasting and deep change from seeing it. Thus the emotional impact of seeing Starman in outer space has tremendous value.

In many ways, sending humans to the Moon or Mars is just as much a stunt as sending the car into space. Starman is a symbol of what we CAN do if we want to. Two days ago, manned mission to Mars seemed like it was way off and something of a folly. Now it seems clearly possible and inevitable, quite possibly in my lifetime now. Getting to Mars was more of an economic problem than technical and SpaceX can put things in space for 10% of what it used to cost.

The long term technical outcome of launching Falcon Heavy, of returning boosters, and so forth are all great and super worthwhile, but this mission will forever be remembered for Starman cruising outer space in a Tesla roadster. That is because he formed a personal connection with the public. Vastly more people watched him floating in space than watched the launch. Seeing the Earth slowly revolve around him was a very enthralling picture.

We are all Starman.
Attachment:
starman-on-my-way.png

Mike C.


We need someone to do likewise in General Aviation. Generate some interest. Wait till SpaceX starts take people up. Might generate the "I want to be an astronaut " like we had decades ago. Although I suspect the runs will by autonomous.

As mentioned, Musk is great at marketing. So important for most anything. But he obviously has some great minds at SpaceX.

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 Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX
PostPosted: 08 Feb 2018, 23:06 
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Username Protected wrote:
Tyler yes to all three of your points.
Explain the first one in a little more detail? About scheduling.


There were four :peace:

We all poo poo’d SpaceX in the beginning because we knew all too well how the NRO hangs up our boosters in encapsulation and and after mate. They tie up your pad and call on the shots (and they pay for all of it), but the bottom line is your completely hamstrung by them and their billion dollar payload. Good luck telling them that they’re blowing up your schedule. Air Force does it too but not nearly as bad.

Ente SpaceX saying “we’ve got a launch going on March 14th who wants to ride, and by the way it’s a third of the cost of DIV”. We knew the government launches would never go for that, because they control the schedule. If they push that vehicle back 5 months nothing goes before it. SpaceX biz model breaks down. The commercial launches are fine with it, but if SpaceX gets ground to a halt it’s hard for them to keep offering at a third of DIV.

Well now (I think) we are seeing AF and even the NRO to say hey, let’s think about this other ride and see if we can make some of our payloads work on it.

In the end I think SpaceX is enlarging the pie, not just taking more slices of it. And they’re bringing commercial launches back to the us mainland. And they’re taking the reuse idea (something proven to be a failure and penciled our to be as well) and running with it and I think it might surprise us all in the end. I’ve turned from a SpaceX snickerer to a bit of a fan ...slowly :D

SpaceX has reused multiple rockets.

Chip-

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 Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX
PostPosted: 08 Feb 2018, 23:46 
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Username Protected wrote:
SpaceX has reused multiple rockets.

Chip-

Economically?

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 Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX
PostPosted: 09 Feb 2018, 00:03 
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We need someone to do likewise in General Aviation. Generate some interest. Wait till SpaceX starts take people up. Might generate the "I want to be an astronaut " like we had decades ago. Although I suspect the runs will by autonomous.


Kid's dreams-

1968: "I want to be an astronaut!"

2018: "I want to be a robot!"

Interestingly, the 2018 kid stands a much better chance of getting his wish during his lifetime than the 1968 kid.

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 Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX
PostPosted: 09 Feb 2018, 00:25 
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As mentioned, Musk is great at marketing.

Not quite sure that is the main thing.

Musk is great at being rich, and then using his money for visionary things. It takes either a lot of courage, or a bit of insanity, probably both, to start a private business with the ultimate goal of taking humans to another planet. I mean, that's chutzpah if ever I saw it.

If he didn't have the money and the technical expertise to actually do it, we'd think he's a lunatic (and some do).

He's a modern Howard Hughes in that regard, though seemingly a bit more mentally stable.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX
PostPosted: 09 Feb 2018, 04:05 
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... meanwhile, Tesla posts a $787,000,000 Q4 loss, for a total of - $3,400,000,000 for 2017.

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 Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX
PostPosted: 09 Feb 2018, 07:27 
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In a serious meeting managing a lot of money for a community and much less money for several families, last week, we discussed specific investments

“Should we bet on Mr. Musk?” Unanimous: ... No.

“But I’d never bet against him”, said the wisest man in the room (it was not I, but I agree)

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 Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX
PostPosted: 09 Feb 2018, 20:08 
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Username Protected wrote:
As mentioned, Musk is great at marketing.

Not quite sure that is the main thing.

Musk is great at being rich, and then using his money for visionary things. It takes either a lot of courage, or a bit of insanity, probably both, to start a private business with the ultimate goal of taking humans to another planet. I mean, that's chutzpah if ever I saw it.

If he didn't have the money and the technical expertise to actually do it, we'd think he's a lunatic (and some do).

He's a modern Howard Hughes in that regard, though seemingly a bit more mentally stable.

Mike C.


Musk did not found Tesla. But he was-after a struggle- able to get it going.

Marketing is many things including central business planning. Saying hes a great marketer is not a slam. Its a plus he knows how to captivate people.

Modern day Hughes is a good description.

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 Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX
PostPosted: 09 Feb 2018, 20:43 
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Musk did not found Tesla.

While technically true, Musk is considered a co founder since he arrived on the scene with the first outside money in Feb 2004. Previously, the two existing founders at that time had been funding it personally. Musk brought in most of the $7.5M first round and immediately had controlling interest. That makes him the main man from a very early time.

There's not much to Tesla history prior to Musk, so to call him a founder is practically true.

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Modern day Hughes is a good description.

Exactly. I don't necessarily think he is a great person, or a either a fan or hater of him. What he is, though, is a man doing stuff with his money towards good goals, even if the actual results fall short. Electric cars, inexpensive access to space, going to Mars, underground tubes for cars, hyperloop intercity travel, etc. These are some of the big issues of the times even if the solutions proposed do seem silly at first.

Musk is going about SpaceX in the right way. Rather than over analyze stuff, he is a "go try it and learn" guy. Witness the number of booster landing failures they had.

Success comes from the willingness to risk failure, not the avoidance of it.

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 Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX
PostPosted: 09 Feb 2018, 22:08 
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I was awed by the launch, bringing back a level excitement of the Space Shuttle launches. The boosters recovery was an amazing technological feat.

The placing of a Tesla into orbit was a world's first, quite an attention getter.

But then, I'm thinking why a Tesla, why not a satellite with medical experiments that could be life saving, or any other kind of payload that would benefit humanity? Maybe the answer is because it's his rocket and his car company, and they allowed him to put up another piece of space junk that we'll have to deal with in the future.


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 Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX
PostPosted: 09 Feb 2018, 22:39 
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But then, I'm thinking why a Tesla, why not a satellite with medical experiments that could be life saving, or any other kind of payload that would benefit humanity?

Engaging people's enthusiasm benefits humanity.

The interest in this particular launch has been enormously larger than any other launch in recent memory.

It was as if we took the very first step to Mars. And indeed, we kind of did.

Ultimately, Mars is not about technology, it is about the collective will of the people. If we want it to happen, we can make it happen.

We all have the advantage of hindsight so say something more "useful" should have been done because it was a success. But we also have to consider the issues if the rocket had failed. Blowing up a car doesn't set us back that far, and SpaceX can take the loss of the rocket and try again. But if it blows up a viable payload, then what was an experiment is now a true failure.

This is why first launches of rocket systems carry no truly useful payloads. This was true for even the Space Shuttle, where the payload was just an instrument package to measure performance and other sensors.

The Space Shuttle, BTW, is the only rocket system ever test launched with a crew. No other rocket has ever been test launched with people aboard. The first shuttle flight was nearly 37 years ago.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX
PostPosted: 09 Feb 2018, 22:50 
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Username Protected wrote:
But then, I'm thinking why a Tesla, why not a satellite with medical experiments that could be life saving, or any other kind of payload that would benefit humanity?

Pre-launch I thought it was the dumbest idea I'd ever heard of, a complete waste.

Post-launch, I have four kids that are enamored with Starman's travels...and rockets and space and galaxies and the speed of sound and atmosphere and gravity and boosters and entry burns and drone ships and gps and WHY and HOW... :bugeye:

Sending a car to space with a dummy at the wheel was genius.

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