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 Post subject: The Future of Learjet?
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2016, 07:03 
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could Learjet move over to Textron from Bombardier, as this article here suggests?

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2016-08-11/analyst-learjet-sale-increasingly-plausible


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 Post subject: Re: The Future of Learjet?
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2016, 07:31 
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This is why Lear doesn't sell airplanes. They have a warped view of the market. Phenom does all of this at lower price with a bigger cabin and 1 pilot.

Quote:
A Bombardier spokesman said the company would not comment on “speculation” about Learjet's fate. “Our immediate focus is on aggressively selling aircraft in a highly competitive [light jet] segment—this includes being aggressive on price and driving cost reduction to better compete in this market space,” he told AIN. “The Learjet 75 offers unmatched performance versus competitors,” noting its flat floor, low operating costs, 2,040-nm range and recently introduced pocket door.


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 Post subject: Re: The Future of Learjet?
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2016, 07:49 
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Username Protected wrote:
This is why Lear doesn't sell airplanes. They have a warped view of the market.


sure there are all kinds of reasons..

they ( Learjet) for sure missed some trains in recent years...

I am interested though what had been the real reasons that a once proud OEM like Learjet, who had such a great brand, that all over the world the name "Learjet" was used by the public for any bizjet they saw, whether it was a Learjet or not, could end up where they are nowadays…?

Had Bombardier ever been a "good" owner after they took it over a long time ago? Did they manage it well…?

What made Learjet lose the focus?

just makes me a bit sad….


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 Post subject: Re: The Future of Learjet?
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2016, 08:20 
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Username Protected wrote:
This is why Lear doesn't sell airplanes. They have a warped view of the market.


sure there are all kinds of reasons..

they ( Learjet) for sure missed some trains in recent years...

I am interested though what had been the real reasons that a once proud OEM like Learjet, who had such a great brand, that all over the world the name "Learjet" was used by the public for any bizjet they saw, whether it was a Learjet or not, could end up where they are nowadays…?

Had Bombardier ever been a "good" owner after they took it over a long time ago? Did they manage it well…?

What made Learjet lose the focus?

just makes me a bit sad….


Kinda like the Beech and Raytheon deal

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 Post subject: Re: The Future of Learjet?
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2016, 10:36 
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Bombardier has destroyed the Lear brand. The legacy airplanes are built like tanks. Nothing I would rather be in when the turbulence gets amped up. The bombardier designed Lears were the 40/45 and now 70/75 (same airframes, different avionics) sort of resemble what a Lear, but are nothing like the legacy airplanes. This isn't really a bad thing, but bombardier was focused on big airplanes and the Lears weren't a priority. It is unfortunate, because that Brand would have been awesome to compete against the likes of Cessna, Emb, Honda, etc. a single pilot Lear would have been fun, and could have owned a big piece of that market segment.


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 Post subject: Re: The Future of Learjet?
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2016, 11:30 
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Taking on $7B of debt for $400 million in revenues doesn't make financial sense. Debt service has to cost $150 - 200 million.

Didn't Hawker/Beechcraft do through bankruptcy and reduce their debt before Textron bought them?

Bombardier needs to deal with the debt before it can sell Lear. With Bombardier being a Canadian company how that is done may be different then the way US companies handle it.

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 Post subject: Re: The Future of Learjet?
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2016, 11:56 
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Username Protected wrote:
Taking on $7B of debt for $400 million in revenues doesn't make financial sense. Debt service has to cost $150 - 200 million.

Didn't Hawker/Beechcraft do through bankruptcy and reduce their debt before Textron bought them?

Bombardier needs to deal with the debt before it can sell Lear. With Bombardier being a Canadian company how that is done may be different then the way US companies handle it.


This type of thing results when the Federal Reserve distorts the cost of capital via QE and suppressing interest rates. Here is the recipe: Take a functioning company, and borrow an insane amount of "free" money. As part of the transaction, pay yourself $20 Million or so in fees. Now you are left with a company that is a financial zombie, but no worries, just borrow more in the future: "pretend and extend".


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 Post subject: Re: The Future of Learjet?
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2016, 16:18 
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It would be nice if they could be spun off but I fear they are far too in bed with Bombardier at this point. Learjet in it's former form is almost unrecognizable, they are now Bombardier US with a small jet assembly line.
The Learjet factory in Wichita spends more time focused on fixing Canadian abominations like the C-Series, Q400 and CRJ-1000 than their own products.


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 Post subject: Re: The Future of Learjet?
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2016, 20:21 
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I'll buy Lear for $1!

But truly sad, that one of the greatest innovators and risk takers in the form of Bill Lear - and his legacy - should end up so deflated. There wouldn't be a business jet segment if Lear hadn't invented it. That said, they waited too long to expand to stand up cabin, to extend wings, to capture the SP market. Now the train has left the station. Maybe a SP re-cert of the Lear 70/75 via STC would do the trick?

All other things aside, after 55 years, the Lear 60XR is still the best looking bizjet there is. Talk about classic and timeless design. This is the grandaddy - what a beauty.


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Last edited on 12 Aug 2016, 22:08, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: The Future of Learjet?
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2016, 21:58 
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And a BLAST to fly! As much fun as the old 23/24 models!!!


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 Post subject: Re: The Future of Learjet?
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2016, 22:43 
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Username Protected wrote:
It would be nice if they could be spun off but I fear they are far too in bed with Bombardier at this point. Learjet in it's former form is almost unrecognizable, they are now Bombardier US with a small jet assembly line.
The Learjet factory in Wichita spends more time focused on fixing Canadian abominations like the C-Series, Q400 and CRJ-1000 than their own products.


That's BFTC, or Bombardier Flight Test Center. Yes, it's about the only thing happening on the Learjet facility. That and a service center for Challengers and Globals.

Now that C-Series is a hell of an airplane, but I might be a bit biased based on the engines.

As an aside, if Textron did buy Lear, it would be on the cheap, and it'd go the same way as Hawker. Buying it to sell parts and service only.


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 Post subject: Re: The Future of Learjet?
PostPosted: 15 Aug 2016, 13:02 
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:sad: My beloved Learjets... the first jet I ever sold was a Lear 24D... the first jet I ever flew in was a Learjet... a Learjet was even critical in the rescue of my daughter (Baby Jessica)

The 20 series Lears still make me tear up... I have a video taken at GTU back in December of a 25D taxiing out and taking off... for quite possibly the last time ever.

The Lear 35A was... and still is the best Learjet ever built!!! The problems with the Learjet brand started way back then when some genius decided to get rid of eh iconic tiptanks... effectively solving a problem that did not exist. The new 31A was a beautiful airplane with sexy winglets... that had a LOT less range... even though they claimed otherwise.

This attitude of building "what we want to build" instead of what the people buying wanted to fly in has been the problem, and it preceded Bombardier. Having said that, Bombardier treated the entire line like a bastard child, effectively finishing it off. They have recently hired dedicated salespeople for the Lear line... but it is probably too late... and defiantly too late if they don't offer a transition airplane.

They quit building the Lear 31A... because it didn't sell... because it wasn't a 35A.. so that left the Lear 45... which is a GREAT airplane... double club with 8 passengers, fast, excellent range... a winner. Their solution to a smaller airplane? Knock a couple of feet off a 45 and call it a 40... nice airplane... but it's a 45... with two less seats.

Other than the larger cabin Lear 60XR... which sold so well they "paused" production, that left them with the Lear 45 / 75 being their only truly viable and desirable airplane, the market only allowing them success in this niche because there is (or maybe was) no other airplane that matched it.

Lear's biggest problem... Cessna. When Lear was building a better / faster jet... Cessna was building single pilot, economical airplanes. Sure, we called them "slow-tations" but if you are moving up from a turboprop do your really need a 450 knot jet? So the guy who owned and flew a King Air, purchased a 501 Citation and flew it... today he may have a Citation XLS... a CJ4... or a Sovereign. He probably doesn't fly it, hired a pro crew years ago... but he stayed in the Cessna line because of progression. Learjet has never offered this type of opportunity in their line.

It makes me sad, really sad... like was said above in this very thread, there was a time when all jets were "Learjets" but those days are gone.

Bring back the 35A, tiptanks and all... I'd love to see it... but probably never happen.

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 Post subject: Re: The Future of Learjet?
PostPosted: 15 Aug 2016, 13:03 
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Username Protected wrote:
I'll buy Lear for $1!

But truly sad, that one of the greatest innovators and risk takers in the form of Bill Lear - and his legacy - should end up so deflated. There wouldn't be a business jet segment if Lear hadn't invented it. That said, they waited too long to expand to stand up cabin, to extend wings, to capture the SP market. Now the train has left the station. Maybe a SP re-cert of the Lear 70/75 via STC would do the trick?

All other things aside, after 55 years, the Lear 60XR is still the best looking bizjet there is. Talk about classic and timeless design. This is the grandaddy - what a beauty.


No way to SP a Lear 45 / 75... too much airplane.

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 Post subject: Re: The Future of Learjet?
PostPosted: 15 Aug 2016, 15:05 
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The 20 series Lears still make me tear up... I have a video taken at GTU back in December of a 25D taxiing out and taking off... for quite possibly the last time ever.




We have serial 25-043 that will be making that "last flight" soon.....we're donating to the local tech school. It was a little rocket ship when "light" on fuel.

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 Post subject: Re: The Future of Learjet?
PostPosted: 15 Aug 2016, 16:00 
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Username Protected wrote:
Taking on $7B of debt for $400 million in revenues doesn't make financial sense. Debt service has to cost $150 - 200 million.

Didn't Hawker/Beechcraft do through bankruptcy and reduce their debt before Textron bought them?

Bombardier needs to deal with the debt before it can sell Lear. With Bombardier being a Canadian company how that is done may be different then the way US companies handle it.

Bombardier has a number of business lines, of which Lear is a very small (getting smaller) bit of their overal revenues. The relevant comparison for the $7bn of debt is their 16.5-17.5bn (Canadian) of revenues. They are highly leveraged at ~9x debt/ebitda on a trailing twelve months basis, but nobody lent them $7bn against $400 million of revenues.


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