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29 Mar 2024, 01:03 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2019, 10:28 
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Username Protected wrote:
What a deal!! $10k for a $2k position. I'm not a smart man, but I do know what dumb is.

Paying $10K for a $2K position that is worth $0.

Where do I sign up?

Record the phone call and upload it to youtube for us. You needn’t worry about it being the worst video we’ve ever seen posted on here. The competition for that is way too strong.
:D

Last edited on 19 Mar 2019, 10:46, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2019, 10:39 
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Username Protected wrote:
What a deal!! $10k for a $2k position. I'm not a smart man, but I do know what dumb is.

Paying $10K for a $2K position that is worth $0.

Where do I sign up?

Mike C.


Technically it's still worth $2k as the money is held in escrow. Just not a very good "investment". :crazy:

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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2019, 11:25 
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this looks like automotive wiring job- I expected to see lacing and tefzel, not tape and plastic loom

https://youtu.be/Ypbs1pI2Blg?t=477

at least the prototype costs are being kept low i guess? hope they get the prototype flying this year


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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2019, 12:15 
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I think they will have the prototype flying by June. I could be wrong its just a guess. I have been and continue to be hopeful for these guys. However it's starting to look like trouble on the horizon. They are way over weight, way behind schedule, and I suspect way over budget. I think the aircraft will under preform by a margin that will not just be a rounding error. I feel like it will be at the very least double the advertised price in the end, so many of the early adopters who got in line for a 130k plane will jump ship. Getting the needed investment to put this thing into production seems like a major hurdle, but who knows. Finally they have sold this thing on the idea that you can come and build your part in 2 weeks time. I don't see any way that will be possible so more will jump ship, not wanting to build their own plane. Or because they don't have the time to walk away from work and family responsibilities for more than 2 weeks. I hope it goes well for them and I hope they sell them by the thousands. But I think in the end it's more likely that Peter is just going to have a really expensive personal plane for himself.


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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2019, 18:22 
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I wonder what put them so far above the projected weight. I wonder how much weight they could save if they ditched pressurization. I’d they could get the weight down somewhat, perhaps they can get closer to the original performance numbers (which are outstanding even if they miss them by a fair margin)


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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2019, 20:46 
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Username Protected wrote:
I wonder what put them so far above the projected weight.

I'm gonna say the laws of physics, but I'm no expert! :duck:


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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2019, 20:49 
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I wonder what put them so far above the projected weight.

I'm gonna say the laws of physics, but I'm no expert! :duck:


But a perfticular system like pressurization, or everything being 50% over.

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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2019, 21:08 
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Username Protected wrote:
I'm gonna say the laws of physics, but I'm no expert!

The law of not realistically accounting for everything.

This afflicts all novice airplane designers, and some experienced ones as well.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2019, 21:15 
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Username Protected wrote:
But a perfticular system like pressurization, or everything being 50% over.

Even if it started with one "perfticular" (where's spellcheck when you need it?) system it ends up snowballing to the point where a majority of the "systems" are affected. Say that pressurizing add's 25% to the weight of the pressurized cabin structures. To deal with the extra weight the wing structures need to be beefed up. This leaves less room for the retractable gear and it's redesign adds more weight. If the MGW is allowed to increase in an attempt to compensate the tail might need to be upsized, it goes on and on.

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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2019, 21:57 
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Username Protected wrote:
I think they will have the prototype flying by June. I could be wrong its just a guess. I have been and continue to be hopeful for these guys. However it's starting to look like trouble on the horizon. They are way over weight, way behind schedule, and I suspect way over budget. I think the aircraft will under preform by a margin that will not just be a rounding error. I feel like it will be at the very least double the advertised price in the end, so many of the early adopters who got in line for a 130k plane will jump ship. Getting the needed investment to put this thing into production seems like a major hurdle, but who knows. Finally they have sold this thing on the idea that you can come and build your part in 2 weeks time. I don't see any way that will be possible so more will jump ship, not wanting to build their own plane. Or because they don't have the time to walk away from work and family responsibilities for more than 2 weeks. I hope it goes well for them and I hope they sell them by the thousands. But I think in the end it's more likely that Peter is just going to have a really expensive personal plane for himself.


Let’s pretend that it performs as advertised. The plan is build the concept, sell to investors and make his money. The escrow accounts get released a short time after the prototype flies. So, they get probably close to $3 million. Then when it’s too late, the price goes to $350k.


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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2019, 23:00 
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As far as the weight goes they did add lots of extra stuff along the way. Some of it was to deal with unforeseen issues, and other things were elective but it all adds up in the end. I agree the price will end up being north of $300,000 if they can get to the point of actually selling one. I suspect many of the 2,000 deposit holders will back out at that price point. The line will be much shorter then it is today.


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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2019, 23:02 
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The guy has been very transparent. Its an attractive experiment.


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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2019, 23:06 
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Username Protected wrote:
Its an attractive experiment.

The numbers put on the brochure are attractive.

The plane is awesome because it doesn't exist yet. As it gets closer to existing, the numbers will start to fade. Indeed, the weight number is the first taste of reality. There are more disappointments coming. You can't hide from physics.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2019, 23:09 
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Not my point. Who else puts their entire startup business on display for the world - warts and all?

The only reason we know its overweight is because he told everyone.


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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2019, 23:24 
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Username Protected wrote:
Who else puts their entire startup business on display for the world - warts and all?

No one who ends up successful, generally.

That alone raises questions of judgment.

Quote:
The only reason we know its overweight is because he told everyone.

The least surprising result in aviation history.

Everybody likes an underdog with big dreams, but in this case, this is just equal parts overconfidence and incompetence.

I have so little faith in this project that I hope it fails before it flies. At least he won't kill himself that way, a very real possibility.

Mike C.

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