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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 22 Aug 2017, 08:14 
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This type of propaganda hype is universal. If they had legitimate mathematical computations to back up these claims, they wouldn't be asking for deposits from the "peanut galleries".


Are you saying they should not be accepting (small, refundable) deposits as a way to gauge interest and establish delivery priority?

Or, if they had "more legitimate math" then they would have less justification for taking escrowed deposits than they currently do?

How does holding a couple bucks in an escrow account have any relation to PT Barnum?


Mark,


It's kind of like somebody not getting a joke. If you have to explain it, you're wasting your time. :doh:

So, I won't. :shrug: :D

Jgreen
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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 22 Aug 2017, 08:19 
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Jim Bede lives!

While there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of this project, the ongoing business model is actually of bigger concern to me than the design and engineering.

The projected cost is $40k below the retail cost of the parts list (which is almost certainly incomplete) and the estimated cost of the airframe seems too low. The stated plan of delivering "at cost" aircraft is shortsighted and reduces (eliminates?) the viability of the business that will support builders and owners unless some separate entity handles that.

On a side note, I don't think I could ever fly in a plane that has a logo set in Brush Script ALL CAPS :thumbdown: That better change soon...


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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 22 Aug 2017, 09:31 
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Username Protected wrote:
Jim Bede lives!

While there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of this project, the ongoing business model is actually of bigger concern to me than the design and engineering.

The projected cost is $40k below the retail cost of the parts list (which is almost certainly incomplete) and the estimated cost of the airframe seems too low. The stated plan of delivering "at cost" aircraft is shortsighted and reduces (eliminates?) the viability of the business that will support builders and owners unless some separate entity handles that.

On a side note, I don't think I could ever fly in a plane that has a logo set in Brush Script ALL CAPS :thumbdown: That better change soon...


I forget where I read it, but someone did a calculation on the cost of the carbon fiber.
The price listed on the Raptor website will not even purchase the carbon fiber at the low volume quantities expected for such a project. This did not include resin, labor....
The guy admitted, it was a complete SWAG, but he based his analysis on the amount of material used for both a Velocity XL and the much smaller Cozy Mark IV.

Then for me, the engine numbers just do not make sense. They are getting a better estimated BSFC rating then large cruise ships.
In terms of the flat plate drag area, Cirrus is pretty descent. Using that as a starting point and claiming a 20% improvement is likely a stretch; but one I could live with.

Going back to the engine, Diamond dropped 60 million after the lessons learned with Thielert to create the AE-300. That is a lot of coin to convert an auto engine to something as reliable as a Lycoming/Continental. I know Diamond had a lot of certification overhead, but not a factor of a 1000, to get down to the price Raptor has for the engine.

Tim

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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 22 Aug 2017, 11:12 
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I support your overall message and anti-critic sway generally, but the above CAN be armchair quarterbacked, as the physics of flight haven't changed.

They're claiming 230kts at 25K. We know that an airframe with a typical c/d and weight will require power of a certain amount -- then we can figure out where the problems are with their math, if any.

The more amateurish the math and claims put forward by a company, and the less seriously they seem to take precision (or sometimes, even just being within an order of magnitude), the more doubt it casts on the overall project and its attention to detail, something I would cherish in a new design.

$0.02


The problem is that we don't know the actual power, or the actual drag, or the actual weight - yet you're saying that's it not achievable. So, it is Monday-morning quarterbacking. I understand you're substantially skeptical, but then just say that.


I didn't say it wasn't achievable, I said it was quarterback-able.

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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 22 Aug 2017, 12:06 
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Username Protected wrote:

I think they are taking a step too far in trying to put out an experimental aircraft with an experimental engine and pressurized and with parachute to boot. But I certainly wish them luck...



This is my issue as well- I don't have the background to assess the scope of the project, but it seems like a big effort to 1) build a brand new airframe 2) make it pressurized, and 3) adapt an engine for use in aircraft. I can accept that it's very difficult to retrofit a pressure envelope into an old airframe, and that it's very important to integrate pressurization into the design, but this seems like a big bite at the apple to do all three at once. Even if the goal was non-pressurized airframe with a traditional aircraft piston engine for the quoted price of $130K, That would be a worthy goal.

I hope they're successful- after the airframe is proven I would be all over it- 2 weeks of time plus $130K? Of course I would do that. I don't believe it's possible by the time you add up all the steps involved, but I hope I'm wrong. The avionics are $35K- even if it's only the airframe for $130K and the avionics and interior are on top of the avionics cost, it's still a no brainer- after the airframe is proven. I hope they're successful.


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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 23 Aug 2017, 20:58 
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I'm deposit holder 170ish. Randomly saw Peter Muller standing around eating lunch at Oshkosh and invited him to sit down. We spoke for a little while. His goal is to have the prototype in the air by the end of the year. Not sure if he'll actually make that from watching the videos but they are obviously making progress.

As for is it achievable. I'll repeat, the TSIO550 Velocity XL, which is a pretty similar air frame, is making 250+ KTAS at 25,000. That's not pie in the sky. I think there are 4 or 5 of those flying today turning in that kind of performance. They just aren't pressurized.

So even if he as to tweak the engine or drop back to a dinosaur to push it at 17 gph, if he gets something flying at that speed, pressurized with chute and glass, for twice that price I'll buy one.


I give him credit for being methodical (Solidworks, flying model, full-size prototype, then "production") and chronicling his mistakes (of which there are many as the process is gone through) on video no less. I also know that if I were to get/build one, I would probably modify it to be a turboprop. Yeah, the price would be higher, but I'd have some extra certainty in the engine, et al.


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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 23 Aug 2017, 23:35 
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Username Protected wrote:
As for is it achievable. I'll repeat, the TSIO550 Velocity XL, which is a pretty similar air frame, is making 250+ KTAS at 25,000. That's not pie in the sky. I think there are 4 or 5 of those flying today turning in that kind of performance. They just aren't pressurized.


Cessna TTx does 230 kts, and it's fixed gear, so the speed is certainly achievable. What's pie in the sky is the engine. Nothing comparable exists now, and these guys don't seem to have any remarkable engine expertise or unlimited capital to succeed where other, way more experienced players have failed. And without the engine, the plane is nothing special. :shrug:


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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 23 Aug 2017, 23:52 
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What makes my skin crawl is how they promote learning to fly. Just "$3,500" in flight training and you can be on your way to Hawaii ! It shows a complete misunderstanding of the concepts of learning to fly. In my aviation life I have heard 1000 claims of a better airplane, I have been disappointed just as many. I'm sure the guy is nice, but this will never work for the price given.
Kevin


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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 24 Aug 2017, 07:47 
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What makes my skin crawl is how they promote learning to fly. Just "$3,500" in flight training and you can be on your way to Hawaii ! It shows a complete misunderstanding of the concepts of learning to fly. In my aviation life I have heard 1000 claims of a better airplane, I have been disappointed just as many. I'm sure the guy is nice, but this will never work for the price given.
Kevin


Kevin, I like the way your think. :thumbup:

Hype is its own reward. You are absolutely correct about "1000 claims" and 999 failures I might add. Seriously, some organization should start a museum about the "claims" put forth in the general aviation industry that have come to naught over the last 100 years. Since the introduction of the Bonanza in 1947, the advances available to general aviation are laughably small. The greatest single step forward was the Cirrus/Lancair designs and their performance to this day is only marginally better than that offered by Walter Beech in 1947.

But it never stops and the line of suckers never seems to shorten. "Pour this in your gas", "add this to your oil", "bolt this to your wing tip", "rub this on your paint" and amazing things will happen. Yea, "stick any of it up your ass" and the same amazing thing will happen, you will be separated from your money. Get some newly minted Victor Lustig who is short on finance, low on integrity, out of a job, and looking to make money, let him advance some mucus induced product out of his garage with claims that would dazzle only a six year old or a pilot, and you have another "aviation advancement".

In most sectors of humanity you have a limit: "You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time."

Whoever coined that phrase didn't know pilots. :doh:

Jgreen

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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 24 Aug 2017, 08:38 
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Your problem, John, is that you cannot bring yourself to speak your mind! :D

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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 24 Aug 2017, 09:03 
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Username Protected wrote:

"You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time."

Whoever coined that phrase didn't know pilots. :doh:

Jgreen



Can't remember who said it but more appropriate is :

"You can fool all of the people some of the time, . . . and that's enough to make a fat profit"


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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 24 Aug 2017, 09:45 
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I love big dreams, but the price tag on the Raptor is highly unlikely, and the motor, even more so. Check out the price on the all carbon Saw Revolution biplane, $205,000 with no engine. Carbon fiber is not cheap.





https://www.orange-aircraft.com/wp-cont ... tion-2.pdf


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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 24 Aug 2017, 09:52 
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What makes my skin crawl is how they promote learning to fly. Just "$3,500" in flight training and you can be on your way to Hawaii ! It shows a complete misunderstanding of the concepts of learning to fly. In my aviation life I have heard 1000 claims of a better airplane, I have been disappointed just as many. I'm sure the guy is nice, but this will never work for the price given.
Kevin


Kevin, I like the way your think. :thumbup:

Hype is its own reward. You are absolutely correct about "1000 claims" and 999 failures I might add. Seriously, some organization should start a museum about the "claims" put forth in the general aviation industry that have come to naught over the last 100 years. Since the introduction of the Bonanza in 1947, the advances available to general aviation are laughably small. The greatest single step forward was the Cirrus/Lancair designs and their performance to this day is only marginally better than that offered by Walter Beech in 1947.

But it never stops and the line of suckers never seems to shorten. "Pour this in your gas", "add this to your oil", "bolt this to your wing tip", "rub this on your paint" and amazing things will happen. Yea, "stick any of it up your ass" and the same amazing thing will happen, you will be separated from your money. Get some newly minted Victor Lustig who is short on finance, low on integrity, out of a job, and looking to make money, let him advance some mucus induced product out of his garage with claims that would dazzle only a six year old or a pilot, and you have another "aviation advancement".

In most sectors of humanity you have a limit: "You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time."

Whoever coined that phrase didn't know pilots. :doh:

Jgreen

I always count on a morning read of JGG to make milk come out of my nose ! Great rant!
:clap:

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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 24 Aug 2017, 10:53 
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Get some newly minted Victor Lustig who is short on finance, low on integrity, out of a job, and looking to make money, let him advance some mucus induced product out of his garage with claims that would dazzle only a six year old or a pilot, and you have another "aviation advancement".


My morning is so much brighter now that I've googled and learned all about Mr. Lustig.
I always thought the tales of selling the Eiffel Tower were apocryphal. :clap: :bow:


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 Post subject: Re: Raptor Aircraft 5 Seat Pressurized 3,600 NM Range Die
PostPosted: 24 Aug 2017, 12:18 
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Username Protected wrote:
Get some newly minted Victor Lustig who is short on finance, low on integrity, out of a job, and looking to make money, let him advance some mucus induced product out of his garage with claims that would dazzle only a six year old or a pilot, and you have another "aviation advancement".


My morning is so much brighter now that I've googled and learned all about Mr. Lustig.
I always thought the tales of selling the Eiffel Tower were apocryphal. :clap: :bow:


That is only because JG was around when Lustig tried to sell the tower...
He thinking of that, I think JG was in heavy construction and recovery at one point....
Hmmmm. Did JG work in France? :D

Tim (who is about to get clobbered by his elders...)

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