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 Post subject: Re: Piston-Powered Lancair Evolution?
PostPosted: 10 Mar 2017, 17:13 
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Username Protected wrote:
The insurance issues with the Evo is because the landing gear has collapsed a few times, mostly because people aren't taking proper procedures. It's mostly the pilot's fault.


Gerry-
I have insured a good handful of Evo's (piston and turbine) over the last year or so and the insurance market at present isn't really very good overall for that product which is a shame quite frankly. The airplane is very capable as you know but there have been a couple of high profile (or public) total hull losses and a smallish 'premium pool' at present. I hope the OEM goes on a road show or has all of the viable underwriting companies to the factory soon for a full day product briefing, demo flights etc. so as to maybe shake loose some carriers that might be on the fence quoting due to losses or are not at all offering coverage on Lancairs. I recently put together a summary of the Evo market appetite for a Lancair dealer who was interested. He was having issue on a few occasions with potential buyers backing out due to insurance costs or availability depending on their overall pilot experience (at least that is what they told him!). Certainly it is an insurable product but the cost of that insurance is definitely higher when run in parallel to comparable OEM products (Meridian, TBM etc).

I see a lot of parallels with Lancair now to back in 2006-2008 concerning the Epic product. At that time there were only about 2-3 viable insurers for the Epic LT which was of course an experimental (the Columbia River dead stick/FCU total hull loss took one of those insurers out essentially overnight from quoting any further Epics). That Epic market however (through underwriter education by the factory and low overall losses) eventually grew to 5-6 viable insurance carriers if you purchase an Epic today. I suspect once the airplane is certified (whenever that time comes) the landscape will be even better due to higher volume aircraft in the system.

I would guess Lancair has or will be getting together with the underwriting companies. Perhaps you already noted that in your post. Certainly would be nice to have more underwriting options for Lancair owners - piston, turbine or otherwise. :thumbup:

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 Post subject: Re: Piston-Powered Lancair Evolution?
PostPosted: 11 Mar 2017, 09:14 
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Username Protected wrote:
The insurance issues with the Evo is because the landing gear has collapsed a few times, mostly because people aren't taking proper procedures. It's mostly the pilot's fault.


Gerry-
I have insured a good handful of Evo's (piston and turbine) over the last year or so and the insurance market at present isn't really very good overall for that product which is a shame quite frankly. The airplane is very capable as you know but there have been a couple of high profile (or public) total hull losses and a smallish 'premium pool' at present. I hope the OEM goes on a road show or has all of the viable underwriting companies to the factory soon for a full day product briefing, demo flights etc. so as to maybe shake loose some carriers that might be on the fence quoting due to losses or are not at all offering coverage on Lancairs. I recently put together a summary of the Evo market appetite for a Lancair dealer who was interested. He was having issue on a few occasions with potential buyers backing out due to insurance costs or availability depending on their overall pilot experience (at least that is what they told him!). Certainly it is an insurable product but the cost of that insurance is definitely higher when run in parallel to comparable OEM products (Meridian, TBM etc).

I see a lot of parallels with Lancair now to back in 2006-2008 concerning the Epic product. At that time there were only about 2-3 viable insurers for the Epic LT which was of course an experimental (the Columbia River dead stick/FCU total hull loss took one of those insurers out essentially overnight from quoting any further Epics). That Epic market however (through underwriter education by the factory and low overall losses) eventually grew to 5-6 viable insurance carriers if you purchase an Epic today. I suspect once the airplane is certified (whenever that time comes) the landscape will be even better due to higher volume aircraft in the system.

I would guess Lancair has or will be getting together with the underwriting companies. Perhaps you already noted that in your post. Certainly would be nice to have more underwriting options for Lancair owners - piston, turbine or otherwise. :thumbup:

I'm not aware of the total loss of hull claims. What happened? Only incidents I know about are from people towing their plane and the gear collapsing (because of a system flaw, which has a band-aid for a fix but if you forget to use it, you have potential to have a bad day).

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 Post subject: Re: Piston-Powered Lancair Evolution?
PostPosted: 11 Mar 2017, 09:35 
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I believe there was a total loss in October last year due to power loss and off airport landing (non-fatal) then the pilot incapacitation loss (fatal) in the Pacific off the coast of CA in late 2015. There might be others but those are the two that come to mind.

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 Post subject: Re: Piston-Powered Lancair Evolution?
PostPosted: 11 Mar 2017, 09:41 
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Username Protected wrote:
I believe there was a total loss in October last year due to power loss and off airport landing (non-fatal) then the pilot incapacitation loss (fatal) in the Pacific off the coast of CA in late 2015. There might be others but those are the two that come to mind.

Yes, I'm aware of the fatal crash (passed out, heart attack, don't think they know). I never heard about the other one.


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 Post subject: Re: Piston-Powered Lancair Evolution?
PostPosted: 11 Mar 2017, 10:04 
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Username Protected wrote:
Yes, I'm aware of the fatal crash (passed out, heart attack, don't think they know). I never heard about the other one.


Date:
01-OCT-2016
Time:
17:27
Type:
Lancair Evolution
Owner/operator:
Aero Smart Solutions Inc
Registration:
N38DM
C/n / msn:
EVO-0047
Fatalities:
Fatalities: 0 / Occupants: 2
Other fatalities:
0
Airplane damage:
Substantial
Location:
Allen County Airport (K88), Iola, KS -   United States of America
Phase:
Take off
Nature:
Unknown
Departure airport:
Allen County (K88)
Destination airport:
Ogden-Hinckley (KOGD)
Narrative:
Following a loss of engine power, the aircraft, an experimental Aero Smart Solutions built Lancair Evolution, impacted rural roadway terrain and trees shortly after takeoff from the Allen County Airport (K88) in Iola, Kansas. The airplane sustained substantial damage during the accident sequence and the two occupants onboard received minor injuries.

Sources:

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Wings Insurance
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E-mail: thauge@wingsinsurance.com


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 Post subject: Re: Piston-Powered Lancair Evolution?
PostPosted: 11 Mar 2017, 12:05 
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The pilot provided a play-by-play of the October loss of N38DM on Lancair Talk. Sounds like fuel contamination made the engine quit at about 10K ft. then helmet fire set in and he frittered away enough altitude that he didn't make it back to the airport. There was quite a long discussion (long for LT, not by BT standards). Later that month came the announcement that the insurer was non-renewing all Lancair coverage.

Perhaps the split will help the now-Evolution Aircraft Co. separate itself from the accident reputation of the earlier Lancair lines.


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 Post subject: Re: Piston-Powered Lancair Evolution?
PostPosted: 11 Mar 2017, 15:45 
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It certainly hasn't impacted the asking prices for existing examples


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 Post subject: Re: Piston-Powered Lancair Evolution?
PostPosted: 11 Mar 2017, 22:21 
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Also the same planes have been on the market for 3 years....


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 Post subject: Re: Piston-Powered Lancair Evolution?
PostPosted: 12 Mar 2017, 14:39 
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Username Protected wrote:

In all seriousness though, if I were to look at the IV-P I'd consider RDD's LX-7 conversion. It redesigns the wing to make it have good fly/stall characteristics like the Evo, adds new avionics (G3X), new engine (piston or turbine) and parachute.

With 180 gal tank and potential 300 ktas with a -28 using 36 gph. That would be a traveling machine!


Gerry,
Seems you know more about the LX-7 than the rest of us. I've seen you sing its praises in other posts. It's a great idea for the plane. But has it flown yet? If so, definitely not enough fleet hours to make any conclusions based on data. I like the IV-P but there is so much bad PR on it plus a LX-7 being 700k+ would seem to be a hard sell. I know it's not marketed towards current owners. But would be competing with newer Cirrus sales. Has there been much progress on the project?


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 Post subject: Re: Piston-Powered Lancair Evolution?
PostPosted: 12 Mar 2017, 16:11 
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Location: Valparaiso, IN
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Username Protected wrote:

In all seriousness though, if I were to look at the IV-P I'd consider RDD's LX-7 conversion. It redesigns the wing to make it have good fly/stall characteristics like the Evo, adds new avionics (G3X), new engine (piston or turbine) and parachute.

With 180 gal tank and potential 300 ktas with a -28 using 36 gph. That would be a traveling machine!


Gerry,
Seems you know more about the LX-7 than the rest of us. I've seen you sing its praises in other posts. It's a great idea for the plane. But has it flown yet? If so, definitely not enough fleet hours to make any conclusions based on data. I like the IV-P but there is so much bad PR on it plus a LX-7 being 700k+ would seem to be a hard sell. I know it's not marketed towards current owners. But would be competing with newer Cirrus sales. Has there been much progress on the project?


I'm assuming you are saying $700k+ because you are including the cost of the plane? That would be half the price of an Evo for basically the same to slightly better performance.

I have worked a lot with RDD on conceptual ideas for the LX-7. No, they haven't flown yet, but current computer systems allow them to know relatively close to how it will perform.

They are expecting 260ktas on a turbo normalized setup with 160 gal usable. This is their first gen offer. They are planning on a turboprop version as well and had originally planned on installing the -42 with expectations of cruising at ~340 ktas. The problem with that setup is that the optimal altitude for a VI-P is FL250 (5.5 psi system) and the -42 would be burning 44+ gph there (7.7 nm/gal). With a -28 you'd still travel ~300 ktas AND you'd only be burning roughly 36 gph (8.3 nm/gal).

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 Post subject: Re: Piston-Powered Lancair Evolution?
PostPosted: 12 Mar 2017, 17:03 
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Yes, 700k + including the donor. How many sub 200k IV-P are out there?
There have been so many designs in the experimental world that either never live up to the hype, or never get finished to see how it would have done. Seems like a lot of work to sell maybe a handful of upgrades.
The real only upgrade would be in safety. And that I think is really pilot dependant. I can insure my Lancair for a $250k hull 1m Liab for between 9-10k per year. Market always changing. (I only go with liability) but the total rate would have to change considerably to come in lower if we are now talking about insuring a $750k+ airframe. And if you spend that on an airplane and are worried about a few AMU difference for insurance rates you way overspent your means.
I wish them luck.....


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 Post subject: Re: Piston-Powered Lancair Evolution?
PostPosted: 12 Mar 2017, 17:15 
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Username Protected wrote:
Yes, 700k + including the donor. How many sub 200k IV-P are out there?
There have been so many designs in the experimental world that either never live up to the hype, or never get finished to see how it would have done. Seems like a lot of work to sell maybe a handful of upgrades.
The real only upgrade would be in safety. And that I think is really pilot dependant. I can insure my Lancair for a $250k hull 1m Liab for between 9-10k per year. Market always changing. (I only go with liability) but the total rate would have to change considerably to come in lower if we are now talking about insuring a $750k+ airframe. And if you spend that on an airplane and are worried about a few AMU difference for insurance rates you way overspent your means.
I wish them luck.....

$9-10k for a $250k hull is EXPENSIVE. You'd probably spend the same amount for a safer $750k bird. You get a lot with the upgrade. MUCH safer flight envelope (with new wing and tail), improved range, improved useful load, BRS chute, G3X panel, new engine, new prop, new interior, new paint, I'm sure there may be something I'm leaving off. You're basically getting a brand new airplane but you as the owner don't have to lift a finger because the plane already has an airworthiness certificate. All of the work can be done professionally ensuring a very safe airplane.

The entire point of this upgrade is that there are a LOT of VI-P's that are never flown or haven't finished being built because of the rep the plane has. This is about resurrecting a fleet that has been all but forgotten. There are a lot of people that would never look at a VI-P because of the rep and buy a Evo. This now gives them an option for half the cost essentially.


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 Post subject: Re: Piston-Powered Lancair Evolution?
PostPosted: 12 Mar 2017, 19:10 
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Like I sAid I hope they are successful. But on the insurance point, yes, $9000 is way expensive for a 250k airframe. But in dollars spent $9000 is $9000. Buying a 750k plane to save on insurance and pay $9000 a year isn't saving money.

Also from earlier posts I don't see how a whole bunch of unfinished IV-Ps is relevant. The point made somewhere by you earlier was this was an upgrade RDD will do. They can do that to existing finished flying Lancairs. Not the unfinished kits. Then they would be building those.

On paper 1500NM+ is impressive, but generally not useful. 6+hrs in 1 seat without the ability to get up and move around. Not for me. No ability to get up and stretch or move is very fatiguing. Not safe in my opinion.

Cirrus has a strong resale record, proven insurance rates, and honestly is way more comfortable. If the Lancair had a few more inches width, 2 more in headroom and a second door then I could see choosing the speed and pressurization. But the price is so close...hard sell. Plus no FIKI.....


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 Post subject: Re: Piston-Powered Lancair Evolution?
PostPosted: 12 Mar 2017, 19:46 
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Username Protected wrote:
Like I sAid I hope they are successful. But on the insurance point, yes, $9000 is way expensive for a 250k airframe. But in dollars spent $9000 is $9000. Buying a 750k plane to save on insurance and pay $9000 a year isn't saving money.

Also from earlier posts I don't see how a whole bunch of unfinished IV-Ps is relevant. The point made somewhere by you earlier was this was an upgrade RDD will do. They can do that to existing finished flying Lancairs. Not the unfinished kits. Then they would be building those.

On paper 1500NM+ is impressive, but generally not useful. 6+hrs in 1 seat without the ability to get up and move around. Not for me. No ability to get up and stretch or move is very fatiguing. Not safe in my opinion.

Cirrus has a strong resale record, proven insurance rates, and honestly is way more comfortable. If the Lancair had a few more inches width, 2 more in headroom and a second door then I could see choosing the speed and pressurization. But the price is so close...hard sell. Plus no FIKI.....

First of all, the point isn't to spend the money to save on insurance. The point is to get a better, SAFER airplane. That's hands down the #1 issue. Yes I agree the plane could be flown properly and be completely safe, but the fact of the matter is that not all pilots are created equally. So the only choice then is to make the plane safer.

2nd, I agree that 1500 nm in 6 hours isn't realistic. That's why I wouldn't put a piston on the plane. It begs for a TP and IMO the -28 is an ideal fit. Sure the -135A would be better but not for the cost.

Also, I'm glad you brought it up because I had forgotten. With the LX-7 conversion, you do pick up 2" of hip and headroom.

Lastly as far as FIKI goes, I don't know what to tell you. IMO FIKI is a feel good term. The ONLY reason I say that is because it literally cannot be deemed FIKI if it's on an experimental bird, no matter how well it works. It may matter on some applications, but the electric de-ice has been phenomenal and now there is an electric de-ice system out there that can be applied to any surface. It would be the ideal setup for the IV-P. Look up Villanger de-ice systems. They have done a lot of tunnel testing and it's quite impressive.


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 Post subject: Re: Piston-Powered Lancair Evolution?
PostPosted: 12 Mar 2017, 22:38 
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I too believe the term FIKI does just make some feel better. I've looked at the Villanger since the pay posted on the Lancair lml awhile ago. I believe fibercraft is involved with them for Lancair installs? And now on MT props too? Unfortunately too expensive for the stage it's in IMHO. If there were a bunch in the field tested and working great then maybe yes. Just too much to pay full price to line up as a test pilot. TKS, although messy is awesome. No run back problems. I never had a problem finding fluid before out or too low. But it's best in wings made for it, where the airfoil isn't changed.

Does RDD plan to buy and convert some Lancairs, or wait for a customer to buy one and bring it to them? Have you heard a timeline for flying prototype?

I've also noticed most of the cheaper IV-P are pre quick build and many have low hrs. So probably many not built as well since weren't using the factory jobs and hard on the engine not flying much or at all. Since the upgrade seems to pretty much trash all the parts that would be a problem in those birds it might get them off the market. I think the cheap depressed market prices are getting some lower budget low time pilots into a plane they shouldn't possibly be flying. Some pilots too cheap to pay for needed transition training.

Look forward to seeing one flying.


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