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 Post subject: Re: It's coming and it will definitely help GA
PostPosted: 10 Aug 2018, 14:34 
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Unfortunately for the boosters of electric airplanes, Mike saved the best for last: show me the proof by designing an electric 172. No matter how much Tim talks about the efficiency and reduced power requirements, he just can't.

Timothy Spear alluded to this too by comparing the Sunflyer with a 172 and SR20. The problem is that these particular models don't exactly compare, though maybe that's the point, that the electric airplane's performance can't compete.

To compare them, I think of it in terms of the proverbial 15-20 mile transit back to the airport for a typical training hop, after 30-45 minutes of work in the practice area, compared to the airplane's available range at this point in the profile- when there is a 20 knot headwind on the way home and you bump the speed up to 100 knots because you're trying to beat the rain. Most people can relate to this scenario even if it doesn't actually happen all that often.

The range/endurance/reserves numbers for the Sunflyer are actually quite comparable with the proverbial 152 that started up with only 15 gallons and two fat guys (sorry, all the plus-sized pilots out there). Both airplanes would be a little tight on this profile and both would land with VFR reserves plus 20-30 minutes to spare.

The 152 has the advantage that it can carry more fuel if it is carrying two average sized people (modern day average, not 170lb FAA 1950s average). The 172 and other typical four seaters have even more fuel advantage, especially when you only put two people in them. That's why I think the 172 and SR are not great comparisons, though again, maybe that's the point in the comparison.

Some more rough numbers, looking at all the information online on the Sunflyer- it is "topped off" when the battery charged to its 83kWh full rated capacity (kWh is analogous to gallons) and that will deliver an impressive 3+30 hours endurance at 55-60 knots, about 1+15 if you want to hustle around at 100, or an hour if you firewall the throttle and leave it there. That last thing is where operating it is much, much different than a gasoline powered airplane.

The silver lining is the thing will climb 1000-1500fpm and I think it will maintain most of that up to 10,000 feet or higher. Just... keep an eye on the clock and on the battery.


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 Post subject: Re: It's coming and it will definitely help GA
PostPosted: 16 Aug 2018, 18:04 
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I just saw this in the news.

http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2018/08/16/ ... costs.html


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 Post subject: Re: It's coming and it will definitely help GA
PostPosted: 17 Aug 2018, 23:43 
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I like the idea of electric propulsion, cars, airplanes etc. But holy cow, did a first grader write this article? Is this a spoof of Fox, or are they really this stupid?

Greg


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 Post subject: Re: It's coming and it will definitely help GA
PostPosted: 18 Aug 2018, 09:15 
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Such a strange tail section.....don't those kind of wing thingys fall off???? ;)

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 Post subject: Re: It's coming and it will definitely help GA
PostPosted: 12 Apr 2019, 15:36 
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Well, roughly 300 pre-orders for the SunFlyer 2.

If they hit delivery targets, it has the potential to really shake up flight training costs. If they SunFlyer 4 actually happens, with GA being such a small market in size it could really shake things up fast.

Tim


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 Post subject: Re: It's coming and it will definitely help GA
PostPosted: 12 Apr 2019, 18:29 
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Well, roughly 300 pre-orders for the SunFlyer 2.

If they hit delivery targets, it has the potential to really shake up flight training costs. If the SunFlyer 4 actually happens, with GA being such a small market in size it could really shake things up fast.

Tim


I actually have a deposit on both: an eFlyer 2 and eFlyer 4 (they changed the name recently). For flights around 350nm or less, the eFlyer 4 performance is comparable to an SR20. And it has a chute too :-) 850lbs payload in the cabin is nothing to sneeze at.

For my mission, Portland to Palo Alto or Mammoth Lakes, I'll need to make a stop, but the trip cost will be a small fraction of what I am spending now. I truly believe that at $5/hour for electricity (about $20/hour DOC) I will be flying a lot more just for fun. And it will be "turbine smooth" and quiet. Electricity costs for the eFlyer 4 are projected to be comparable, per mile, to an electric car (about 50kw to go 160nm).

When higher-capacity batteries become available, it will be a straightforward swap with significantly improved range or speed.

I do think this is going to be a game-changer and great for general aviation. It may be the first and only airplane I buy new.

Bruce


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 Post subject: Re: It's coming and it will definitely help GA
PostPosted: 12 Apr 2019, 22:52 
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When higher-capacity batteries become available, it will be a straightforward swap with significantly improved range or speed.
That would be nice but it seems unlikely. Several electric or hybrid cars (Prius, Tesla, Volt, Leaf, et al) are on their second- or third-generation battery tech and, to my knowledge, "a straightforward swap" of batteries has never been offered. To get the new-tech batteries, their offered upgrade path is to buy a new car, while the trade-in value of your old one cratered when the new model came out.


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 Post subject: Re: It's coming and it will definitely help GA
PostPosted: 13 Apr 2019, 07:28 
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That would be nice but it seems unlikely. Several electric or hybrid cars (Prius, Tesla, Volt, Leaf, et al) are on their second- or third-generation battery tech and, to my knowledge, "a straightforward swap" of batteries has never been offered. To get the new-tech batteries, their offered upgrade path is to buy a new car, while the trade-in value of your old one cratered when the new model came out.


I recall reading that Pipistrel built two versions of their electric trainer. One version had easy-swap battery packs. A format like that seems well suited to take advantage of improving battery tech.

What I don't know is if there is any sort of commonality, similarity, or standardization on thes batteries being used.

It seems like these high power packs require integrated temperature sensing and a smart charging system. I don't know if that acts as an impediment to changing battery tech.

Regardless, comparing what is happeing with cars produced in the 100s of 1000s units to how someone will manage an electric airplane over the next 20 years is a tenuous comparison at best.

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 Post subject: Re: It's coming and it will definitely help GA
PostPosted: 13 Apr 2019, 18:17 
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When higher-capacity batteries become available, it will be a straightforward swap with significantly improved range or speed.
That would be nice but it seems unlikely. Several electric or hybrid cars (Prius, Tesla, Volt, Leaf, et al) are on their second- or third-generation battery tech and, to my knowledge, "a straightforward swap" of batteries has never been offered. To get the new-tech batteries, their offered upgrade path is to buy a new car, while the trade-in value of your old one cratered when the new model came out.


The auto industry is much more commoditized, that's for sure. I believe that the current 250Wh/kg batteries are likely to get to 400Wh/kg within the next few years. I suspect some enterprising person will make it possible to upgrade the eFlyers (of course, depending on the size of the fleet and economic return).

In any case, if the numbers are anywhere close to the ones stated, I will be pretty happy with the eFlyer 4 for quite some time.

Bruce

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 Post subject: Re: It's coming and it will definitely help GA
PostPosted: 14 Apr 2019, 08:14 
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The auto industry is much more commoditized, that's for sure. I believe that the current 250Wh/kg batteries are likely to get to 400Wh/kg within the next few years. I suspect some enterprising person will make it possible to upgrade the eFlyers (of course, depending on the size of the fleet and economic return).

In any case, if the numbers are anywhere close to the ones stated, I will be pretty happy with the eFlyer 4 for quite some time.

Bruce


Problem for me is 350 miles is my day trip range. For weekends, I often go 500-700 miles; which already puts my at the practical edge of the SR22 I fly now. If there were even close to a 600 mile no wind range I would put in a deposit and accept the the shorter distances.

Tim


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 Post subject: Re: It's coming and it will definitely help GA
PostPosted: 14 Apr 2019, 10:28 
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Mike C.

Thanks for the math reminder, it has been twenty plus years since I had to deal with trig. :D
Still, just eye balling it, something seems off. :shrug;

Tim



The math is not off. Just eyeball it a different way. :thumbup:

Take an IO550 36 bonanza. It has a service ceiling of 18000 feet. At that that altitude the engine is making...you guessed it....50 percent power.

Same with my IO540 powered 182.

If you see a normally aspirated plane that has a service ceiling less than 18000 feet it because it is too heavy, lacks a sufficient engine, or has a poorly designed wing.


Pick just about any GA plane and you will find it needs 45-55 percent hp to fly level. You can nickel and dime this stuff all you want and you will end up in the same ballpark with the same team.

What happened to the graphite batteries?

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 Post subject: Re: It's coming and it will definitely help GA
PostPosted: 14 Apr 2019, 12:42 
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Electric aircraft would be great if we could just find an extension cord long enough.

No question, but other than that, it'll never work, and if it does, the word "barely" is apt.



This thread is a perfect example of how short sighted humans can be. This thread started a little over 48 months ago and many said electric aircraft “will never work” and battery’s will never have enough power.
Now four years later we have electric aircraft with 300 mile range and we are right on the cusp of new battery Nanotechnologies that are promising a 40% increase in power and will charge fully in 15 minutes or less, some even say less than 2 minutes.
And many believe we will have 4 seat aircraft with Bonanza performance in the next 20 years.
I bet it’s sooner, as long as the “we can’t do it” people aren’t in charge.

Greg


Last edited on 14 Apr 2019, 12:48, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: It's coming and it will definitely help GA
PostPosted: 14 Apr 2019, 12:47 
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I actually have a deposit on both: an eFlyer 2 and eFlyer 4 (they changed the name recently). For flights around 350nm or less, the eFlyer 4 performance is comparable to an SR20. And it has a chute too :-) 850lbs payload in the cabin is nothing to sneeze at.

For my mission, Portland to Palo Alto or Mammoth Lakes, I'll need to make a stop, but the trip cost will be a small fraction of what I am spending now. I truly believe that at $5/hour for electricity (about $20/hour DOC) I will be flying a lot more just for fun. And it will be "turbine smooth" and quiet. Electricity costs for the eFlyer 4 are projected to be comparable, per mile, to an electric car (about 50kw to go 160nm).

When higher-capacity batteries become available, it will be a straightforward swap with significantly improved range or speed.

I do think this is going to be a game-changer and great for general aviation. It may be the first and only airplane I buy new.

Bruce


Good on you, Bruce! Nice to see people put their money where their conviction lies!

Like you, I can't wait for electric flight to hit mainstream. I'm sick of the costs, the ornery maintenance, the lack of innovation, the unreliability of piston and even turbine power. At the same time, I'm mainly into flying to go places and have it replace airline travel and driving for me, which means I'll probably have to wait the longest to have that performance. Student aircraft that can fly around for 1hr is already possible and a reality - the real challenge is doing 1000nm.

I'm hoping the recent advances in Free-Piston Linear Generators might make hybrid bridging a solution until power storage gets better.

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 Post subject: Re: It's coming and it will definitely help GA
PostPosted: 14 Apr 2019, 12:58 
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This is definitely going to be great for aviation if it can lower the hourly cost of training.
A friend with a great job and a supportive doctor for a wife and almost no debt, just quit his flying lessons yesterday after three hours because he just couldn’t justify the $10k plus he estimated it was going to cost to get his private pilot license.
Flying some ratted out, smelly Piper for $213/hr with instructor is rediculous. A big part of that cost is that maintenance hog POS power plant hanging out front.
If they are even close to the estimated $20/hr operating cost for the eflyer2, that’s effing huge.
I write this as I’m excitedly looking forward to going to the hangar to change and find a place to dispose of 5 gallons of toxic waste oil from the 120 and Bonanza, and remove clean and replace 20 @$#&##$ spark plugs to prep for a annual inspection which mostly revolves around that 1920s technology power plant.

Greg


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 Post subject: Re: It's coming and it will definitely help GA
PostPosted: 14 Apr 2019, 13:52 
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This is definitely going to be great for aviation if it can lower the hourly cost of training.
A friend with a great job and a supportive doctor for a wife and almost no debt, just quit his flying lessons yesterday after three hours because he just couldn’t justify the $10k plus he estimated it was going to cost to get his private pilot license.
Flying some ratted out, smelly Piper for $213/hr with instructor is rediculous. A big part of that cost is that maintenance hog POS power plant hanging out front.
If they are even close to the estimated $20/hr operating cost for the eflyer2, that’s effing huge.
I write this as I’m excitedly looking forward to going to the hangar to change and find a place to dispose of 5 gallons of toxic waste oil from the 120 and Bonanza, and remove clean and replace 20 @$#&##$ spark plugs to prep for a annual inspection which mostly revolves around that 1920s technology power plant.

Greg


Just like electric cars, they’ll be sold by capitalists who will make up the financial difference of OpX with the sales price. Regarding toxic waste, what type of power plant supplies your airport with energy? Have you looked into battery manufacturing?

I’m a supporter of electric transportation, but I think we need to consider the realities. Hopefully the tech will eventually increase performance. Then we’ll have something that sells vs a limited airframe that creates fodder for eliminating certain fuels.


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