BeechTalk - BT

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 Dec 2018, 18:37

Success MIGHT be all the women and most of the whiskey

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 Dec 2018, 18:47

Username Protected wrote:

The $1.39M price isn't locked; it's subject to compounded CPI increases calculated at time of delivery

From 2013 to now, 5 years, CPI-W works out to 6.9% in total. Not as big a factor as you might think in recent times.

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and is the "base price" of the jet without options which are typically $400,000,

I've heard the "options" are not optional, so a bit of a misleading term.

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or maintenance service contracts at $209,900.

That shouldn't be counted in a purchase price.

Using your approach, the current contract price for an SF-50 is north of $3.0M by the time you include CPI, options, and contracts.

Mike C.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 Dec 2018, 18:49

Username Protected wrote:

Success MIGHT be all the women and most of the whiskey

Unfortunately this only goes to 2nd quarter 2018. Is 3rd quarter available yet?
https://gama.aero/wp-content/uploads/me ... portQ2.pdf

218 Deliveries through 2nd quarter
SF50 25 units
M2 16 units
Hondajet 17 units
Phenom one hundred 6 units
Eclipse 0 units

So as of 2nd quarter...... SF50 is winning in mini jet deliveries.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 Dec 2018, 18:53

[quote="Mike Ciholas"] The chute simply does not provide the protection and safety benefits PEOPLE THINK IT DOES

Mike C.[/quote

the “people think it does” iz the part that matters.

Perception is reality

I looked in an SF50 on the ramp at Raleigh recently.

My perception is that IF you were one of the passengers in this tiny jet you would feel like you were in a much larger jet. I would say the SF50 is a large....short jet.

All planes are compromises....

I would gladly compromise my love of two engines and go single engine SF50

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 Dec 2018, 18:59

Here's the through 3rd quarter 2018 GAMA report.... found it:
https://gama.aero/wp-content/uploads/20 ... rtQ3-1.pdf

SF50 41 units
M2 22 units
Phenom one hundred 8 units
Hondajet 21 units
Eclipse 0 units

SF50 is far more successful than the other mini jets in 2018 and has been around the least amount of time.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 Dec 2018, 19:25

Username Protected wrote:

If Cirrus delivers the fifth SF-50 to a customer (to avoid any shenanigans with fake early deliveries, an industry tradition) by Jan 1st, 2018, 3+ years from now and more than 10 years after the program was started, then I will never post again on this forum. If they fail to, you will never post again on this forum.

Have we got a deal? :-)

If you start arguing that 3 years isn't enough time, then you are basically saying the SF-50 really is vaporware right now.

Mike C.

And all JC had to do was say, "Deal!"

I went back and read the first 10 or so pages just for fun. The last 100 say the same thing, so I wanted to see how it all started.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 Dec 2018, 19:28

Username Protected wrote:

And all JC had to do was say, "Deal!"

It's one of my biggest life regrets but at the time of that post Cirrus still didn't have certification. I knew they would get it and that the SF50 would sell huge but the bet MC proposed had too much "when" in it. Government moves slow. There was no way to know.

The post still proves how bizarre the predictions in this thread are. It's a great "life data point" for me.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 Dec 2018, 19:31

Username Protected wrote:

And all JC had to do was say, "Deal!"

It's one of my biggest life regrets but at the time of that post Cirrus still didn't have certification. I knew they would get it and that the SF50 would sell huge but the bet MC proposed had too much "when" in it. Government moves slow. There was no way to know.

The post still proves how bizarre the predictions in this thread are. It's a great "life data point" for me.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 Dec 2018, 20:02

Username Protected wrote:

Mike's arguments can all be true and the SF50 can still be viable, appealing and successful. There seems to be some prevailing idea on both sides of this argument that both can't be true or that the sales disprove the engineering or vice versa.

Cirrus set to design a slow jet, that wasn't terribly efficient with limited range that was also easy to fly and relatively cheap. Thus far they have succeeded and it appears the project will be successful.

I'm sold on the SF50, and my plans to buy one are now only about $2M short. The plane would do everything I'd want it to do, which is exponentially better than what I'm doing with the plane I have now.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 Dec 2018, 20:03

Username Protected wrote:

Here's the through 3rd quarter
Hondajet 21 units

I fly over the Honda jet factory a couple of times a week. We have steadily watched them park more planes on the ramp over the last few months. Last week I counted 18 that look ready for delivery, up from 2 or 3 in the spring.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 Dec 2018, 20:27

“I would think it unfortunate if either JC or Mike C. were to never post on this forum again”

Agree. I enjoy both. What gets old is when others attack the person as part of their argument. I have seen that several times in the last few days.

I have been reading MC’s literature on and off for 10+ years. Some of the Eclipse chronicles between him and one Ken Meyer were classic reads.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 Dec 2018, 21:02

Username Protected wrote:

I fly over the Honda jet factory a couple of times a week. We have steadily watched them park more planes on the ramp over the last few months. Last week I counted 18 that look ready for delivery, up from 2 or 3 in the spring.

I'm surprised they've delivered 21 this year. That's a pretty good number. I just don't see them parked on ramps very often.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 Dec 2018, 21:18

Username Protected wrote:

In terms of operation, the Cirrus jet doesn't appear to make sense.

Cirrus business plan has never been to make sense. They're selling emotion. This is a JET. It's like selling something that will make your penis 3" longer. Pull up all the studies you want showing size doesn't matter ... it'll still sell.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 Dec 2018, 21:53

Username Protected wrote:

I fly over the Honda jet factory a couple of times a week. We have steadily watched them park more planes on the ramp over the last few months. Last week I counted 18 that look ready for delivery, up from 2 or 3 in the spring.

Are you sure those aren't the ones flown back for warranty repair? :hide:

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 Dec 2018, 22:29

Username Protected wrote:

Here's the through 3rd quarter 2018 GAMA report.... found it:
https://gama.aero/wp-content/uploads/20 ... rtQ3-1.pdf

SF50 41 units
M2 22 units
Phenom one hundred 8 units
Hondajet 21 units
Eclipse 0 units

SF50 is far more successful than the other mini jets in 2018 and has been around the least amount of time.

total SF50's 41 units
total of the others 51 units
pretty impressive failure. I wish all my failures were that good.

Cirrus SF50