I'd be surprised if there were many inexpensive turbine owners that want to dump it and go back to the airlines. That group seems to know rough costs going in rather than assuming because a Citation II is cheap to buy it'll be cheap to own, and I know of no one who buys a turboprop or jet and says they prefer going to the airlines. Maybe there are people who are forced to for financial reasons.

How about fuel sales?

I'd be surprised if there were many inexpensive turbine owners that want to dump it and go back to the airlines. That group seems to know rough costs going in rather than assuming because a Citation II is cheap to buy it'll be cheap to own, and I know of no one who buys a turboprop or jet and says they prefer going to the airlines. Maybe there are people who are forced to for financial reasons.

I can only speak from my perspective. We have multiple clients that have either upgraded their aircraft or added a turbine aircraft to avoid the airlines.

I've heard the tales of buyers who bought large jets and had no idea of the cost involved, heck there was even a broker roundtable claiming this was rampant and buyer's remorse would set in, these airplanes will be dumped soon. I'm waiting... my clients are waiting. Someone start dumping!

A good example is a West Coast based client, we bought them a nice King Air 300 a few years ago, they use it for all of their West of the Rockies trips and then used the airlines if they traveled to Colorado or Texas. Covid happened... so we bought them a Learjet 45XR last fall. They are well aware of the cost involved and will not be getting rid of either airplane. There is no scenario where someone use to flying on a Lear 45 is going back to the airlines unless they have no choice.

Sure, you'll have some folks that will decide the financial sacrifice isn't worth it or that they fly too little to make it economical, but most of those people will go back to charter, not back to the airlines.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... 000001&f=m

June 2021 was 511,600 gallons per day.

Assume 15 GPH average usage.

34,000 hours per day, 12,500,000 hours per year.

That does not count any of the autogas flyers.

COVID never really hit affected it based on the chart.

Mike C.

March through October 2020 was down from same period in 2019, but most of the hit was in April.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... 000001&f=m

June 2021 was 511,600 gallons per day.

Assume 15 GPH average usage.

34,000 hours per day, 12,500,000 hours per year.

That does not count any of the autogas flyers.

COVID never really hit affected it based on the chart.

Mike C.

Aviation gasoline = avgas

Click the link!

Very interesting data … at least respecting the avgas segment of the market. Thanks for posting!!

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... 000001&f=m

June 2021 was 511,600 gallons per day.

Assume 15 GPH average usage.

34,000 hours per day, 12,500,000 hours per year.

That does not count any of the autogas flyers.

COVID never really hit affected it based on the chart.

Mike C.

Remember aviation is booming? Or not?

What happened between 2012 and 2013? Or maybe a better question, why were 11 and 12 so strong?

Some of the posts on this thread amaze me. I'm not in the airplane or aviation business in any way. On the other hand, aviation affects the "bottom line" of my life in a small way. I own airplanes, and I am, at least, tepidly in the market for another. Someone referred to me in the last few days here on BT as "frugal". I am, and I'm going to stay that way.

My query, I repeat, is driven by the economics of owning, buying, and selling an airplane. Only a fool or a very irresponsible person would buy into a market frenzy without investigating the future of the market sans other pertinent issues like a business need.

So, yes, I want to know exactly how broad this buying surge is affecting the market. I'm not interested in" logic stretched thin" anecdotal evidence or BS opinions. This is not religion. We aren't looking into dark closets and speculating on what is or is not there, at least I'm not.

For this seller's market to really mean anything to most members here on BT, it has to encompass most of the market in types of aircraft, AND, there has to be a significant uptick in usage to underwrite and sustain the market. So far, THERE HAS NOT BEEN ONE MINUTIA OF HARD EVIDENCE OF SIGNIFICANCE.

The surge of buying in markets across the board, building materials, boats, side by sides, recreational vehicles etc., etc,. etc,. has been the product of one thing: government handouts. Personally, I think this buying frenzy in airplanes has more in common with the motivation for pontoon boats than for any real NEED of an airplane.

I'm going to keep looking and asking questions and ignoring most of the posts on this thread unless I'm looking for the futures on fertilizer.

Jg

FOR THE RECORD. The PPP loans were mostly based on numbers of employees. Since I have few employees now, what I received was small. Then, almost out of the blue, in the last couple of months a new bit of very narrowly focused legislation was passed that encompassed one of my interests. I feel like a welfare *********.

It will have not one scintilla of effect on how I approach any market.

Jg

I think less about govt handouts and more about people simply being unable to spend on a broader diversity of economic activities, particularly travel and services. Restaurants, hotels, theaters, ball games, and big vacations have been things that have been a source of savings for many over the past year and a half. So they are spending it on hard goods.