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03 Dec 2025, 05:43 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale
PostPosted: 27 Dec 2017, 12:02 
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It amazes me how many airplanes listed on Controller that really aren’t legitimately for sale.

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 Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale
PostPosted: 27 Dec 2017, 14:16 
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Username Protected wrote:

controller and the other platforms are plagued with stale listings, or owners listing the plane and not really attempting or wanting to sell them, that doesn't necessarily translate into inflated list prices though, based on my experience- though i've admittedly been looking primarily at king air and conquests

Of course that happens but.....

That doesn't negate how many companies are delivering mini-jets right now. Hondajet, EclipseJet, Cirrus SF50, Cessna M2, Cessna Mustang, Embraer Phenom 100.... all essentially the exact same airplane that have completely tanked in value after new because they just don't have much utility. A great buy on the used market though.

I'm trying to get my friend to buy a Phenom 100 as I think it's a great buy... He's spending 2X to get a TBM instead because the Phenom doesn't meet his needs. I'd make the fuel stop but he won't have it. It's just going to get worse for the mini-jet market,


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 Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale
PostPosted: 27 Dec 2017, 14:47 
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I agree opex is another factor but...... I have friends in a fractional SR22 program paying $500 an hour plus overnights etc.

The difference in opex is closing fast. Avgas is expensive stuff. Piston engines on new SR22s are expensive to keep running.

The SF50 is perfectly positioned



$500 an hour for an SR22 seems like a whole lot to me. - Does that include hangar, taxes, insurance, interest and principle payments, engine reserves and so on? If that's the total investment, that's not too bad. If there was a big buy in, then $500/hr and charges on top that's kinda nuts.

My all in costs - everything at 140 hours per year, work out to around that much. But that includes things like interest and principle pay down, taxes, insurance, maintenance, databases, and hourly variable costs like fuel, oil, engine reserves.

I can't imagine a jet of any type costing less, especially at my relatively low utilization.


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 Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale
PostPosted: 27 Dec 2017, 14:50 
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Username Protected wrote:
[
I can't imagine a jet of any type costing less, especially at my relatively low utilization.

I never said the jet would cost less. A jet will cost more but IMO money much better spent than $1MM plus $500 an hour to fly around in a piston plane at 185 knots.


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 Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale
PostPosted: 28 Dec 2017, 18:34 
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Sellers don't come off asking prices?

I count well over 100 mini-jets listed for sale on Controller that all do pretty much the exact same thing.

I'm just telling you what I would do if I were in the market for a super expensive piston airplane.


i'd say 10%, not 30-40% of list (where list is equivalent to the market average/mean price for that TTAF

if you are negotiating that much off the list of things you may consider part time brokerage


You are correct... I see some high asking prices, but not 30% high!

There are a lot of light jets on the market, many of those listings are stale... what isn't apparent is how many of these little jets sell every day... it's mind boggling!

The perception created by Controller is a false one, an astounding number of those airplanes are not really for sale. The brokers use them as a calling cards to get buyer to call them so they can work a deal on an off market airplane. The airplanes on Controller may be recently sold but they keep the ad up or it may be a customer of the broker that lets him keep the airplane advertised. In many cases a broker takes a listing, knowing it wont sell for what the owner wants, but again he gets the calls and has a listing to make his website look good.

The reality is the light jet market is hot, and with the way things are looking it will get even hotter.

There isn't a glut... not yet anyway. Be interesting to see what happens.
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 Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale
PostPosted: 28 Dec 2017, 19:16 
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There isn't a glut... not yet anyway. Be interesting to see what happens.

Disregard what's on Controller....

There's not a more common type being built than the mini jet. They're pumping them out and I rarely see them on a ramp.


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 Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale
PostPosted: 28 Dec 2017, 20:03 
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That's probably true, I would assume most folks fly their light jet 100 -150 hours a year. Most trips less than an hour. The rest of the time they are tucked away in a hangar somewhere.

If you were to guess... how many turboprops in the world? And then... how may jets?

*hint- you think there's a lot more turboprops than there actually is... because they are so often parked outside!

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 Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale
PostPosted: 29 Dec 2017, 09:34 
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*hint- you think there's a lot more turboprops than there actually is... because they are so often parked outside!

Ha. What a load of bs. I see tons of jets on ramps. I flew 350+ hours this year. I see very very few Phenom 100, Mustang, Eclipse, M2, CJ1, Hondajet etc.


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 Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale
PostPosted: 29 Dec 2017, 09:36 
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Username Protected wrote:
That's probably true, I would assume most folks fly their light jet 100 -150 hours a year. Most trips less than an hour. The rest of the time they are tucked away in a hangar somewhere.

Does a HondaJet bother climbing above 17K' on a 1 hour trip? I don't.


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 Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale
PostPosted: 29 Dec 2017, 12:39 
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Username Protected wrote:
That's probably true, I would assume most folks fly their light jet 100 -150 hours a year. Most trips less than an hour. The rest of the time they are tucked away in a hangar somewhere.

Does a HondaJet bother climbing above 17K' on a 1 hour trip? I don't.


Why 17K? In the M600, on this 216 nm flight which turns out to be 1 hour, I would still climb into the flight levels, since there is zero risk of a mid-air, often smoother air, and almost always above weather. Burn a little less fuel, and spend exactly the same time on the trip. Here is 17,000 versus 26,000. That is for 1 hour, which is around the break even for a flight level climb. I would usually climb into the flight levels even for 45 minute flight, unless I was ducking brutal headwinds or wanted to flight see. For short flights, I usually I will use the rule of thirds. I will climb for up to a third cruise for a third and descend for a third. Seems to usually optimize efficiency in a SETP (speed/fuel burn)

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 Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale
PostPosted: 29 Dec 2017, 14:16 
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Your post assumes direct ATC routing.my rationale for staying below 18k is to avoid atc.

I fly Atlanta to Miami faster VFR than IFR.


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 Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale
PostPosted: 29 Dec 2017, 14:42 
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That makes sense. IFR routing through busy airspace can be complex. Threw me off with the 17K and nod 17.5, but I get it. thx

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 Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale
PostPosted: 29 Dec 2017, 15:07 
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Username Protected wrote:
That makes sense. IFR routing through busy airspace can be complex. Threw me off with the 17K and nod 17.5, but I get it. thx

I even have a route to NYC that keeps me under 18K'. 1 waypoint West of the DC TFR and I'm calling tower at TEB. Saves me 30-40 minutes over going IFR.

Routings in the Rockies this week have been crazy IFR because of the holiday traffic. So I just fly VFR.

When I fly my parents 250NM to their house I don't bother talking to ATC because they're gonna fly me everywhere and keep me low. I can't imagine having a HondaJet and picking up my IFR on the ground every flight. They can sit at the hold short line waiting for release while I take off on the short runway and pick up my clearance downstream. There's always a line of jets waiting for IFR release on VMC days./


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 Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale
PostPosted: 29 Dec 2017, 16:42 
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Why don't the jets depart VFR and pickup THEIR clearance in the air?

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 Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale
PostPosted: 29 Dec 2017, 17:09 
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Username Protected wrote:
Why don't the jets depart VFR and pickup THEIR clearance in the air?

Matt


Jets burn mightily below 18k

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