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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 10:49 
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I agree with everything you said, Charles, and I'd add the following-
Quote:
no reason to hangar a 152,

I don't know about that...the sun eats airplanes.

Quote:
mogas is viable most 4 cylinder engines, etc.

Totally agree, BUT the majority of A&P's still hate MOGAs & many people, even here, will make noise about how it's not a good fuel to use; etc. That scares young pilots, who are trying to do everything "right". Poor young Pilot takes his plane in for a mag issue; A&P tells him, "you're running mogas in this, aren't you?" Pilot says, "yes, it's saving me money, and it runs great". A&P says: "well, don't blame me if you have engine problems, and I really don't like to work on anything that isn't being fueled correctly".
End of MOGAS for that young pilot.

Quote:
1) it's easy to share a 2 seat toy between 10 people. I was in a 140 club that had a $600 buyin, $45/month dues and was $40/hr wet. That sort of flying is quite accessible.

Absolutely. Issue I've seen is that there aren't many flying clubs out there any more, COE where I'm at, used to have a half dozen of them, there are none now.

Quote:
The problem is that no one can make money, let alone a living, getting people into cheap flying. It only works as a grassroots effort where old pilots mentor new pilots into affordable opportunities. The $150/hr 172 rental at the crappy flight school won't do it.

That right there is nail on the head; Charles.

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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 11:02 
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In 1973, when I got my license, I paid $0.37 per gallon for avgas for my Cessna 140. Shortly after I bought it, avgas went to $0.50/gallon. All of the wisdom at the local airport said that aviation was now dead...I quit flying for a while (maybe 2 weeks), said 'screw it', then went back to flying. Still at it.


I do think the regs have increased, and the heyday of the late 70s has gone away...but a lot of that was fueled by the guys who were in their 40s and 50s who had the GI bill, which paid for a lot of flight training, and a lot of guys had been exposed to aviation during WWII....which made it a desirable "target" for their recreational dollars and time. Even if they hadn't flown, it remained a "desire"....


In the early 70s, as a teenager, I had no video games, the TV at home was B&W (and my parents didn't let us watch it if the sun was out), and the options at home for fun (read work) weren't near as much fun as going to the airport and "working" at a job there. Flight was the biggest thrill I'd ever had. I think the combination of "screens", and the demise of the square hay baler have led to less impetus for youth to want to pursue the "work" of flying.


Face it...it took study, determination, effort to get a license. Many (most?) teens, young adults, haven't experienced the reward of aspiring to something, and then reaching that goal.

The airport fence hasn't helped....time was you could show up, express interest, and the old geezer would talk you to death about flying. Now, you have to get past the receptionist, the gate, and then the geezer worries that you are really from the TSA or FAA, really just trying to find out that he's done an illegal repair..... (tongue in cheek....)


stan

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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 11:09 
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I agree Charles.

The idea of a AA1A, 152, 172, etc is to learn to fly and then immediately move up to a Saratoga or something like that so you can actually go somewhere. Sure, I could fly my AA1A to FL, but it would have 4 fuel stops and the weather would have to be pretty decent. A 30 knot headwind would not work, nor would significant IFR without an autopilot. It is a great tool to learn in or to fly around for fun, but it is hardly a traveling machine. So, the next step up to seriously go somewhere with a decent chance of dispatch reliability is a nice 182, Cherokee 6, Saratoga, V35, A36, etc. You are looking at $75k+ for anything I would want to fly in and that does not get you the toys the new generations want. Fuel burn and maintenance goes up as well. This is the real problem I see going forward. Even if an average guy does get his license he is pretty much stuck in the AA1A or renting a 152 for a couple of hours per month. Just not enough budget remaining.

Aircraft clubs have helped in this regard somewhat, but when 6 guys are in a club it is pretty hard to schedule a trip to FL for the winter in your club plane. It is like renting a car - you have restrictions and GA is about eliminating those restrictions; otherwise, you might as well drive.


Todd,

I'm not sure your last statement is correct. I don't think the majority of the GA pilots you think are gone forever ever really used airplanes for personal transportation. They used them for flying enjoyment. That option is still very much available as Tom pointed out. I've been in a flying club for 5 years. It costs $30 per hour to rent a 172 and $40 per hour to rent a partial glass panel 182 plus gas. That's less than $100 per hour wet for either plane.

We have 3 airplanes and 45 members. The planes only fly 600 hours per year total. Anybody that wants to schedule the kinds of trips you're talking about can. Most don't. Most fly locally, for enjoyment, as they always have.

Flying may not be as cheap as it used to be. Hardly anything is. But if you really want to fly, even on a limited budget, you can. I see it all the time.

Yes, the 60's and 70's were a unique period in aviation. Probably the 50's too. Before that there weren't that many planes or pilots. After that there have been less. Times change and along with them the things that people want to spend their disposable income on.

The archetypical blue collar pilot you talk about wasn't flying the kinds of planes we love to discuss here: Bonanza's, Barons, etc. They always cost too much for those guys. It's only been the last decade where these planes have become affordable to the masses- even with gas prices at $5-6 (inflation adjusted historical norms). The truth is the blue collar masses who aren't pilots today aren't pilots because they'd rather entertain themselves some other way than flying. What's wrong with that?


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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 11:12 
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All excellent points Stan M.

For me,

Flying was expensive in the mid 80's when I sold my car to get my license.

Flying was expensive in the mid 90's when I bought my first airplane, a Cherokee 140.

Flying was expensive in the mid 00's when I spent a bunch of money renting faster airplanes and obtained most of my ratings.

Flying is expensive today to feed my Baron and 1/2 of my Decathlon.

My next move in aircraft will likely be expensive as well.

The point? Nothing has changed. It is still just a matter of what you want to do with your money and time.

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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 11:15 
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Username Protected wrote:
One thing that could help save GA is the fact that there are less pilots every year and the airlines will struggle to replace pilots. Airline travel could get much more expensive while having pilots with less experience as well.

I truly think to save GA we have to exempt all planes under 12,500 and not used for commercial purposes from the ridiculous requirements they must meet. Let Hyundai build a airplane as they see fit. Probably could get a 350HP plane with de-ice and a parachute for $250k new. If the wings fall off then nobody else will buy one. Problem solved.

It amazes me to no end that of some of the ridiculously old stuff that is "REMAN" when a new designed part of the shelf would be safer and 1/10th the cost, but since it is not certified it cannot be used. This needs to end. We need modern airplanes and people need to start taking risk. Big warning when you buy a plane:

"This aircraft is not safe and should not be flown by anyone. You will most likely die quickly if you attempt to fly this plane."

And every time you fly it this audio warning before the door will open:

"By entering this aircraft you agree that it is a POS and will kill you. If you are stupid enough to get in then don't be crying to an attorney when you end up in a wheelchair and with 3rd degree burns on your face."

There - those warnings good enough? Can we build an airplane now that people can afford?



I 100% agree this is the only thing that will save GA. We must get government out of it. Let people take some personal responsibility and the free market will take care of it .


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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 11:21 
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Username Protected wrote:
All excellent points Stan M.

For me,

Flying was expensive in the mid 80's when I sold my car to get my license.

Flying was expensive in the mid 90's when I bought my first airplane, a Cherokee 140.

Flying was expensive in the mid 00's when I spent a bunch of money renting faster airplanes and obtained most of my ratings.

Flying is expensive today to feed my Baron and 1/2 of my Decathlon.

My next move in aircraft will likely be expensive as well.

The point? Nothing has changed. It is still just a matter of what you want to do with your money and time.




Tom things have changed, the masses no longer think like you and I and have no interest in flying. They are distracted by other opportunities.


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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 11:28 
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Aircraft: 1954 Bonanza E35
Matt, I appreciated your post:
Quote:
Chris I do agree with you that if your only making $10 an hour flying is too expensive. But who on this board is making $10 per hour?

Nobody here is making $10.00 an hour, but I guess my point was that what it takes to own & fly a plane is about $10.00 an hour, 40 hours a week, after taxes.
So; to the average new pilot, IF he or she makes $25.00 an hour, it'll take about half of that to be able to fly their own plane, and that's not realistic for anyone, if flying took half my income there's no way I'd be able to do it.
$25.00 an hour, that's a thousand a week. $4,000 a month.
Remove taxes, and you get about $3,000 a month. (maybe).
Then, half of THAT is what it costs to fly, IF nothing goes wrong?
Ouch.

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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 11:31 
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I wish you guys would quit posting about how much it costs to own and fly an airplane.

My wife reads these forums sometimes. :bat: So far she has been convinced that our Bonanza is a magic carpet that costs less to own than her Suburban. :D

Rex

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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 11:34 
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Stan Musick:

Quote:
Face it...it took study, determination, effort to get a license. Many (most?) teens, young adults, haven't experienced the reward of aspiring to something, and then reaching that goal.


I remember all the studying to achieve my PPL/Comm/MEL...in just five months...182 flight hours in ten different aircraft. Oh, how much fun was that? Also, there was great satisfaction as each rating was acquired.

I remember the heyday of piston general aviation. I was flying 250~300 hours per year on business in the late '70s. I was flying in TX, OK, and LA mostly, with occasional trips to TN and GA. Every airport was a beehive of activity, especially on weekends. On a pretty day it seemed every plane at my small-town airport would get flown. Flight school aircraft were booked solid weeks in advance. At my present airport, with approx. 140 based planes, there is just not a lot of activity on a pretty Saturday.

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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 11:38 
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After reading this entire thread I'm feeling a bit sick at my stomach, I just sent a 1973 Bo in for $50k panel upgrade and just replaced the 70's look interior with leather, from carpet to headliner $$$
I felt and still do "on top of the world" after getting my instrument rating which I wanted for over 16 years.......you guys are bumming me out :whiteflag: ......I guess I'm closing my eyes to what may be reality, hope all you boys are wrong. I figure I have another 10-15 good flying years left in me....hell I still shoot approaches in my sleep I love it sooooo much.
I don't make a lot of money and raised 4 girls, not every penny I saved is going into this love but many penny's are. If I end up with zero at the end of my flying days....so be it !!

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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 11:43 
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Username Protected wrote:
After reading this entire thread I'm feeling a bit sick at my stomach, I just sent a 1973 Bo in for $50k panel upgrade and just replaced the 70's look interior with leather, from carpet to headliner $$$
I felt and still do "on top of the world" after getting my instrument rating which I wanted for over 16 years.......you guys are bumming me out :whiteflag: ......I guess I'm closing my eyes to what may be reality, hope all you boys are wrong. I figure I have another 10-15 good flying years left in me....hell I still shoot approaches in my sleep I love it sooooo much.
I don't make a lot of money and raised 4 girls, not every penny I saved is going into this love but many penny's are. If I end up with zero at the end of my flying days....so be it !!

Don't worry. BT isn't ALL a bunch of old codgers fantasizing about yesteryear. Everyone else is just tired of arguing with them.


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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 11:52 
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Those of you who are now in your 60s and seventies lived through a remarkable and unusual time period. After the end of WW2, the US had under 5% of the world's population and 60% of the world's wealth, measured in GNP terms, and owned huge war debts. You (and I say "you" because I grew up in England under very different circumstances) had limitless spaces, great wealth, huge numbers of qualified pilots, and abundant and cheap oil. You also had large scale government infrastructure and defense spending that kept the economy humming.

So a lot of people could suddenly afford to fly (and buy houses and large cars), unlike 10 or 20 years earlier. In Europe, we were rebuilding the infrastructure, and paying off those war debts (the last payment from the UK was made in the late 90s, I think). We used to watch American movies and TV shows in amazement. My parent's generation, if they could afford it, emigrated. My parents were some of the last, and we moved to the Land Of Plenty when I was 18.

My point is that the GA boom coincided with a period when Americans were immensely wealthy and privileged, even those who didn't think they were because they never went anywhere, except on a package tour of Europe by bus, staying in nice hotels and surrounded by other Americans. There's a reason why the 50's are remembered fondly by the Ozzie and Harriette gang.

It's not that way now. The US still has about 25% of the world's wealth, and about 5% of the world's population, although still very well of compared to the rest of the world. In real terms we are about 65% less wealthy than those gilded times. One result - flying has become, as other have mentioned, an activity reserved for the very well off. Most on this board are in the top 5% of what is still a very wealthy place. We can afford it. But the next 25% can no longer do so. And that's the way it was before WW2 changed the equation.

I wish it was still the 50/60/70's in GA too. But it isn't. "You've been living in a dream world, Neo"

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Last edited on 14 Oct 2014, 11:56, edited 4 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 11:53 
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Username Protected wrote:
In fact, the dumbing down of America is exactly why GA is declining. Too many idiots embracing Family Guy, the Simpsons, Honey Boo Boo, and P. Diddy shows. Worthless entertainment for shallow minds IMO. You have to have somewhat of a brain to fly a plane, being an ignorant entertainer is quite easy.


Yea, back in my day, we watched much more fulfilling things like Three Stooges, Our Gang, Buck Rogers, Flash Gordon and Superman. Funny how much you sound like my Dad did to me back then :D

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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 11:55 
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I think all of us are just lucky; at some point we'll all be talking about the flights we made; the love we had for it, the freedom that we enjoyed as a result. I fully think that the regulations won't go away; and that the costs will continue to soar, as we have what is perceived as a very dangerous activity combined with less people paying for it.

But, sadly, at least to me; what we do; our activity OF flying, is getting smaller, as a whole. At my airport, there's the older Guys who tinker a lot, (but fly very little) the rich guys who have the REALLY nice planes, (Challenger/Citation/Lear) and that's about it. The flying school (1 instructor) has (one) plane, up until last year it sat most of the time.

Folks, the only way to resurrect GA is to (impossibly in todays' climate) make it affordable again. Of COURSE, if we actually did that, there would be more accidents, as a simple result of there being more planes flying.
THEN, you know what the non-flying public would say, (in Court, after any accident)?
They'd say; "well, they made it less expensive, so now it's less safe, look, there's more accidents now as a direct result of making it cheaper to do, we can prove it statistically".

The problem in aviation, Folks, is the same one we have throughout society; we have extreme issues with safety "enforcement", as we're all so "concerned" about each other's "well being".

We're this way, so much now, that we literally tie each other's hands behind our backs, and then look at each other and say, (stupidly), "see, at least he's safe now".

Myself, I'm an outlaw. I don't wear seatbelts in my car & I ENJOY that (but I do in the plane). It's my personal way of protesting collective laws. Do I know that statistically a seatbelt may save me? Sure. But much like a biker who enjoys the wind in his hair without a helmet on (we have no helmet laws in Idaho) I enjoy not "buckling up for safety" & yes, it's illegal. :clap:

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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 11:55 
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Some good perspectives here.

That said I bought a twin for a heck of a deal; because i needed it.

people are still going to need GA.Its just going to be different. The future of regional airlines could look grim. People still need to get around. A little more Ebola, a little more TSA...need GA for more than just regional s. To me its all about economics: what do we need and what will we pay for. And no disregard, but Im not talking about the rich that can disregard economics to some extent.

i can tell you one thing: we dont need a bunch of empty expensive airports hanging around. Times change? You bet. Theres coming a time where everything better fill a need because if you havent noticed, our guvment is over the top out of control. the bright side: when the FAA and all the rest tank, we can really build planes for the masses.

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