BeechTalk - BT

Username Protected · **Posted:** 22 Jan 2019, 17:35

Username Protected wrote:

Us MU2 drivers are having to work for a living! it was a MONDAY!

I heard that. Might as well tack MLK onto the rest of the holidays that began last Thanksgiving. Have we had 1 full work week yet?

Username Protected · **Posted:** 22 Jan 2019, 17:59

I saw an all red one in Nassau on Sunday and thought to myself hmmm, I could have 10 Citation II DisposaJets with 9 seats at 370kts @ FL430 and go 1300nm or 1 Cirrus Jet that holds less and goes lower and slower. Or, I could have 1 DisposaJet and a lifetime of gas money.

I'll take the DisposaJet and the gas money.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 22 Jan 2019, 19:04

just having a look at what went on before & posting for now what may or may not still be relevant

Posted: 06 Dec 2014, 20:25
viewtopic.php?p=1295252#p1295252

Username Protected wrote:

It was a test to see if he believed what he was saying. I wasn't the one who brought up taking a bet, BTW.

Mike C.

Wait a sec. I didn't care for your wording of the bet.

I will bet you $1K that IF the SF50 makes it to market it will be wildly successful and one of the hottest selling planes out.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 22 Jan 2019, 19:44

Username Protected wrote:

I saw an all red one in Nassau on Sunday and thought to myself hmmm, I could have 10 Citation II DisposaJets with 9 seats at 370kts @ FL430 and go 1300nm or 1 Cirrus Jet that holds less and goes lower and slower. Or, I could have 1 DisposaJet and a lifetime of gas money.

I'll take the DisposaJet and the gas money.

What's a Citation II disposajet?

Username Protected · **Posted:** 22 Jan 2019, 20:40

I can tell you they don’t go 370 @ FL430.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 22 Jan 2019, 22:07

Username Protected wrote:

So...doesn't that contradict your point?

If true, yes it does.

This does not bode well for Cirrus having the clear an order book with losses on each delivery.

Quote:

Sounds like they are getting an even better plane for the original price with the option to upgrade if desired!

So what you are saying is that there are 3 versions of SF50 now? The G1, the G2 without autothrottle for current position holders, and the G2 with autothrottle for new buyers and position holders who pay more.

Is that what the statement meant?

Mike C.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 22 Jan 2019, 22:13

Username Protected wrote:

So...doesn't that contradict your point?

If true, yes it does.

This does not bode well for Cirrus having the clear an order book with losses on each delivery.

Quote:

Sounds like they are getting an even better plane for the original price with the option to upgrade if desired!

So what you are saying is that there are 3 versions of SF50 now? The G1, the G2 without autothrottle for current position holders, and the G2 with autothrottle for new buyers and position holders who pay more.

Is that what the statement meant?

Mike C.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 22 Jan 2019, 22:36

Username Protected wrote:

I can tell you they don’t go 370 @ FL430.

Book best speed for Citation II 550 at FL430, ISA, mid weight, is 343 KTAS.

Hang FJ44s on them, and they'll do 370 KTAS easily at FL430.

But that moves them out of the "disposable" category, though less than a new SF50 by a fair amount.

Mike C.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 23 Jan 2019, 13:23

as far as the 'engine choice' subject goes, some discussion here
viewtopic.php?p=2316560#p2316560

then current promo stuff goes

Username Protected wrote:

Here's another aspect. The FJ33 has ZERO volume applications so far. The SF50, if it gets to market, will be the only type using FJ33 in any numbers. Guess which customer base now gets to be part of Williams field trials?

Recall the PW610F problems with combustor issues that the Eclipse folks suffered through. Shows you that even a highly tested and certified engine can have teething problems when put into actual service. Also, Williams had a pretty bad experience making the FJ22 (the canceled first engine for the EA500, cycle life 1!).

And the FJ33 engine, untested in the field to any significant degree, will be on a SINGLE! Scary!

If I really, really, really wanted an SF50, I'd wait until it has been in the field 2+ years and see what the teething problems are like, then buy one used IF the field history is good. Ask any Eclipse owner about the "early years" of having an entirely new airframe and entirely new engine built by a company entirely new to jets.

Mike C.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 23 Jan 2019, 14:04

viewtopic.php?p=2302166#p2302166

Username Protected wrote:

One FJ33 is cheaper to PRODUCE than two PW610F. But I bet the one FJ33 INVOICES for about the same as two PW610Fs.

The reason is that Williams needs to make back its development money somehow on HALF the units shipped. Also, the economies of production scale are lessened with half as many units. And then there is the residual revenue from engine operation and parts. Williams has half as many units to sell HSI and OH parts for as time goes by. The residual parts money can be worth MORE to Williams than the sales price of the engine outright.

Then lastly, Williams suffers higher liability for a jet engine on a single engine airplane. Every in flight shutdown is a potentially very serious accident whereas a twin jet is a nuisance that actually GENERATES revenue.

Add all that up, and the cost of the FJ33 to Cirrus for an SF50 is equal or more than two PW610Fs.

Mike C.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 23 Jan 2019, 14:48

I find it interesting that there is so much speculation on the G2 with respect to current position holders vs actual facts. Very unlike this forum. Where are the actual buyers or close friends of actual buyers?

Username Protected · **Posted:** 23 Jan 2019, 14:56

Username Protected wrote:

I find it interesting that there is so much speculation on the G2 with respect to current position holders vs actual facts. Very unlike this forum. Where are the actual buyers or close friends of actual buyers?

It has been posted in COPA multiple times; and repeated on here. The base price for early position holders has not changed. Some of the newer features in the G2 are now supplemental options. The big one being auto-throttle.

Otherwise, position holders who get a G2 are getting a plane which surpasses the original contract.

The only real point of contention is profitability; or the lack there of. Mike C. is making the argument that because Cirrus raised the base price from roughly 1.4M to 2.4M that Cirrus is losing money on each plane; and that the 1M price increase was required to break even. That really is his only data point related to pricing....

Tim

Username Protected · **Posted:** 23 Jan 2019, 17:50

So you read it on the internet then?

Username Protected · **Posted:** 23 Jan 2019, 18:03

Who/how many make up the "early" position holders?

Username Protected · **Posted:** 23 Jan 2019, 18:56

Username Protected wrote:

Otherwise, position holders who get a G2 are getting a plane which surpasses the original contract.

How does that work? if I am a 1.3m position holder and I elect for a G2, you're saying my base price is still 1.3 (plus cpi) ? Or is there a 1m add on fee for the G2 features (plus cpi) ?

Cirrus SF50