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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 09 Jan 2019, 13:03 
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Username Protected wrote:

I don't let PAX use the word "jet" around me.. It's "ducted turbofan" or "Non ducted turbofan".


That's good! :D


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 09 Jan 2019, 13:08 
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The upgrades are awesome, but I still haven’t heard anybody address the price increase (if there is one). To me, position holders should only pay the marginal % difference as what was contracted for at yesterday’s price vs the new price with the enhancements. For example, if it is an 8% increase, that 8% should be applied to the early positions contract value. That seems fair. I may not have articulated clearly...


Last edited on 09 Jan 2019, 14:05, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 09 Jan 2019, 13:13 
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Username Protected wrote:
The upgrades are awesome, but I still haven’t heard anybody address the price increase (if there is one). To me, position holders should only may the marginal % difference if contracted for At yesterday’s price vs the new price with the enhancements. For example, if it is an 8% increase, that 8% should be applied to the early positions contract value. That seems fair. I may not have articulated clearly...


That is how it is done. Problem is all the options. People want them, and the options are effectively more expensive for position holders.

Tim


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 09 Jan 2019, 13:20 
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Username Protected wrote:
You have no idea what the profit or loss on each airframe shipped may be.

It doesn't take a genius to figure this stuff out.

Started at $1.39M. This is the price most of the position holders have.

A few years ago, went to $1.96M.

Now price is $2.38M base, $2.75M loaded.

Time to make a G2 and raise the price. Nearly all the changes are $0 extra per aircraft, only material thing is the autothrottle, which costs maybe $0.02M to add the servo (and AT was planned from the start, this isn't a "new" feature, but finally delivering on an old promise).

Pretty sure they aren't making money at $1.39M if it now costs more than double that now.

Mike C.


The fact that demand is outstripping production and they have raised prices is not proof, in any way, that Cirrus is not profitable on initial aircraft.

They are raising their prices and improving the airplane and from what the COPA boards say the actual buyers are not put off at all.

Fundamentally the problem with your argument is you are treating your biased opinion (they MUST be losing money because that’s the ONLY motivation for a price increase) as fact and continuing to ride the circular logic merry - go - round.
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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 09 Jan 2019, 13:21 
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easy to tune out folks or stuff that may not appeal :)


Dude, what are you trying to say?

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 09 Jan 2019, 13:32 
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Well those are some substantial improvements, Cirrus doesn't sit still for long. The SF50 is now almost as fast as a Mustang, and goes about as far. Hmmmm. Quite appealing for the turbine step up crowd. Right now for currently produced light turbines, as I see it:

range/payload M500<SF50<M600<=TBM 930<PC12

Speed: M500<M600<=PC12NG<SF50<TBM

High hot and short capability: SF50<TBM<M600<M500<PC12NG.

Price: M500<SF50<M600<TBM<PC12

Technology: PC12<M500<SF50=M600

Still no clear winner, is going to be cost and mission dependent, and the value of toys. Love the innovation though.


Is the M500 really better than the M600 on hot and high performance?

Tim


Tiny bit if you are talking gross weight performance. In the real world, the M600 almost never flies at gross weight with 2400 lb useful load just don't need that much fuel, whereas the M500 spends more time at GW. A light M600 handily outperforms an M500. Lightly loaded the M600 has a higher HP to weight ratio than an Extra 300 :D
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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 09 Jan 2019, 13:37 
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Username Protected wrote:
easy to tune out folks or stuff that may not appeal :)

Oh, the irony.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 09 Jan 2019, 13:43 
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4 wk transition to jet pilot
https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all ... -jet-pilot

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 09 Jan 2019, 13:46 
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The next step is more power and a "I'm landing unless you stop me" button.


A pre-requisite of that functionality was the auto-throttle. Next up, brake by wire.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 09 Jan 2019, 14:27 
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Does this mean that I can get a used G1 at a bargain basement price? Where’s the ramp appeal in that? :D


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 09 Jan 2019, 15:55 
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With options and interest, the G1 was effectively around 1.8M.

G2 base price, no "options", is $2.38M as reported by AIN. Suggests similarly equipped, around $2.6M or so. There will be some CPI applied, though the year is reset to recent.

AIN also said full options is $2.75M.

From AVweb, Dec 2008:

The base price for the jet, now at about $1 million, is sure to change by the time it reaches the market, which will be sometime after 2011 or 2012, but Klapmeier said he hopes to keep the price in that general ballpark.

It must be a big ball park.

At pushing $3M, it's getting harder to see the supposed economic advantages of being a single engine airplane.

Quote:
Basically no one is buying the basic plane as priced in the contract.

$1.39M + CPI + no options should equal the contract price.

Quote:
The G2 effectively raises the price for early position holders to 2M via new options.

Would be interesting to see how that works out, though I doubt position holders will be forthcoming with the details.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 09 Jan 2019, 16:00 
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Would be interesting to see how that works out, though I doubt position holders will be forthcoming with the details.

Mike C.

That means they like their new airplanes.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 09 Jan 2019, 16:06 
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Username Protected wrote:
The fact that demand is outstripping production

Demand is from 12 years ago. Demand today? Hmmm.

Clear the order book, bring the SF50 G2 to market today at $2.38 to 2.75M. Would demand outstrip production of ~80 aircraft/year?

Highly doubt that. Eclipse couldn't sell more than a handful of EA550s at $3M.

Quote:
and they have raised prices is not proof, in any way, that Cirrus is not profitable on initial aircraft.

Yeah, and the moon landing didn't happen either.

It's a great strategy for Cirrus. Instead of selling a bunch of airplanes below cost, bump the price up nearly a $1M, make the long suffering depositors pay that. The order book growth had basically stopped, so the extra $1M cost isn't going to hurt new sales, there aren't many of those anyway, so turn to the one source of revenue you got, the depositors.

Now Cirrus will make maybe 300-400 SF50, the order book will shrink a bit, but the planes will now be profitable. When the order book comes to the end, the line will slow down, and then, maybe, they will build a twin. It will probably be a pretty nice airplane when they do it.

Cirrus is doing what they need to do to survive. Building SF50s below cost is a death sentence, ask Eclipse about that.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 09 Jan 2019, 16:09 
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Username Protected wrote:

Waited 5003 days to get it, 28 days to learn to fly it, and it is already obsolete.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 09 Jan 2019, 16:12 
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Username Protected wrote:
Does this mean that I can get a used G1 at a bargain basement price? Where’s the ramp appeal in that? :D

Hint: they look exactly the same on the ramp.

Wonder if Cirrus will issue an SB to give older SNs the FL310 ceiling? They wouldn't do that right away, of course, got to protect the G2 advantages.

Mike C.

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