By that logic this entire thread is stupid and childish. The whole thread is predictions (mostly made by you that haven't come true at all). What difference does a bet make?

The Jet production schedule is mentioned in this video

[youtube]https://youtu.be/-PdTNmPoY94[/youtube]

His wager is the equivalent of "I bet one day the sun won't rise". It always remains possible, so he can never lose. Only an idiot would accept it as stated.

Mike C.

I bet you by Dec 31, 2019 this thread will go over 500 pages.

It pollutes the thread with school yard banter, not enlightenment.

Mike C.

That video was from early in the year, Feb, and they claimed ~50 planes a year at that time.

They still seem to be doing about that rate now. About 4.8 planes a month in the last 6 months per the registry. At this rate, those with high number deposits are looking at a LONG wait.

On controller.com, highest position advertised is #361. Claims to be a 2022 delivery. Assuming that is delivered in mid year, and they get ~75 delivered by end of this year, represents a rate of 80 planes/year. Sounds like they have already told the depositors that they aren't going to hit 125/year and expect to only ramp up to about 80/year.

This puts delivering the 500th SF50 at around Jan 2025, 6 years from now. Ouch.

Mike C.

You could also start a "Go Fund Me" account to fund the bet. Im sure there are enough people with $10 each.

Winner take all. What you're looking for is bragging rights to your opinion, right?

That video was from early in the year, Feb, and they claimed ~50 planes a year at that time.

They still seem to be doing about that rate now. About 4.8 planes a month in the last 6 months per the registry. At this rate, those with high number deposits are looking at a LONG wait.

On controller.com, highest position advertised is #361. Claims to be a 2022 delivery. Assuming that is delivered in mid year, and they get ~75 delivered by end of this year, represents a rate of 80 planes/year. Sounds like they have already told the depositors that they aren't going to hit 125/year and expect to only ramp up to about 80/year.

This puts delivering the 500th SF50 at around Jan 2025, 6 years from now. Ouch.

Mike C.

That video was from early in the year, Feb, and they claimed ~50 planes a year at that time.

They still seem to be doing about that rate now. About 4.8 planes a month in the last 6 months per the registry. At this rate, those with high number deposits are looking at a LONG wait.

The biggest new threat to Cirrus is the Chinese regression to communism. They had a never ending demand opening up as businesses and capitalism were taking root. A tough aspect of business in China is the travel between business centers. I could see thousands of SF50s criss-crossing the country if it were allowed to develop with sensible regulation.

I do think the SF50 is an attractive back step for many current jet owners who would otherwise have to downsize to a turbo prop. If Cirrus can get some recognizable folks to make it “cool” to fly in an “environmentally friendly small jet”, it may attract some egos pulling their horns in.

I agree. I believe Cirrus is deliberately slow paying production because to make it faster costs money and only gets them to the end of the order book faster. If they are losing money on each one (likely at this stage), then going slower makes it easier to absorb those losses by offset from SR profits.

This explains the #361 in 2022. That represents a production rate 64% of the 125/year objective. It seems doubtful they will hit 100 per year based on the evidence so far.


Basically, this is saying the order book is going to shrink. Those that want to move up will do so, those at the end will drop off.

Mike C.

There is a growing tension in China between the working class masses and the 1% upper crust. The fact such a divide exists is counter to the base ideals of communism. China is the most capitalistic communist country I know. I have relatives in the Heilongjiang province, and they are definitely 1% types, run their own businesses, drive > $100K western cars, live in duplex houses (closest thing to a single family that exists in the cities), travel abroad, etc.

If these folks are suddenly enabled to fly their private jets around the country, this divide will increase and political pressure could start to build, if it hasn't already. There have been some pretty high profile crack downs on the 1% types, notably Fan Bingbing recently. The central government wants to send a message that the 1% have to stay in line.

So I think individual GA in China will be frowned upon for quite some time. However, corporate GA *may* be allowed at some point. Right now, the air is owned by the military, so GA is throttled by that fact alone.

There is a lot going on in China, mostly without a great deal of awareness among people in the US. It is entirely conceivable that in 20 years time, the hub of tech innovation in the world is Shenzhen, and not Silicon Valley.

Mike C.

Anyone who has flown a real jet would find the SF50 limiting so I suspect this will be a tiny minority of owners.

I've yet to hear of an SF owner who wasn't stepping out of an SR. I'm sure that exists, but seems very rare at the moment.

Mike C.

Anyone who has flown a real jet would find the SF50 limiting so I suspect this will be a tiny minority of owners.

I've yet to hear of an SF owner who wasn't stepping out of an SR. I'm sure that exists, but seems very rare at the moment.

Mike C.