BeechTalk - BT

Username Protected · **Posted:** 17 Dec 2018, 02:09

Username Protected wrote:

It didn't take 4 weeks. Read the article again.

It does due to the Cirrus process.

Skill assessment.
Avionics training.
Ground school.
Sim training.
Flight training.
Check ride evaluation.
Sign off.
Oral test.
Check ride.

Cirrus adds steps around it beyond the typical type rating course.

I doubt it can be done much less than 4 weeks for an SR pilot. Lots of things to learn that the SR doesn't have such a retractable gear, anti ice, pressurization, turbine starting, yaw damper, and so on.

Jay talks about his training in this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgM_MeJKahg

Mike C.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 17 Dec 2018, 08:21

Username Protected wrote:

No SF50 owner knew what they would have to do when they signed the contract.

Mike C.

Wow

Username Protected · **Posted:** 17 Dec 2018, 09:31

Username Protected wrote:

It is really frustrating that Eclipse frakked it up with their damn innovation religion and Cirrus frakked it up with their damn single engine religion. If either company had listened to the tiniest amount of common sense from the industry, they would have been successes. Sigh.

Mike C.

M2, Hondajet, Phenom 100 are all available on the market. The SF50 is outselling all of them.
What "common sense from the industry" do you mean?

If you want a twin jet.... go buy one for 2X the price. God bless America.

https://gama.aero/wp-content/uploads/20 ... portQ3.pdf

Username Protected · **Posted:** 17 Dec 2018, 09:39

Username Protected wrote:

I think Cirrus will find it hard to sell many more past the 500 initially on the order book. I expect about 100 positions will evaporate, so maybe only 400 get delivered.

Cessna Mustang had 479 built. Considered very successful.
Many jet models never pass 500. You may want to rethink your metric.

Tim

Username Protected · **Posted:** 17 Dec 2018, 09:40

Username Protected wrote:

I think Cirrus will find it hard to sell many more past the 500 initially on the order book. I expect about 100 positions will evaporate, so maybe only 400 get delivered.

Cessna Mustang had 479 built. Considered very successful.
Many jet models never pass 500. You may want to rethink your metric.

Tim

Username Protected · **Posted:** 17 Dec 2018, 10:27

Username Protected wrote:

Cirrus should have 100 delivered by the end of 2018. I think they'll get to 500 quickly. Anyone care to make a wager?

Sure. If by the end of 2019, they have not produced 500.
You give me your PC12 and I give my share in the SR22

Tim

Username Protected · **Posted:** 17 Dec 2018, 10:45

Username Protected wrote:

Sure. If by the end of 2019, they have not produced 500.
You give me your PC12 and I give my share in the SR22

Tim

Ha

I think they'll have 500 out there by 2022 but "time" shouldn't be part of the bet. If Cirrus isn't selling them, they're not gonna bother building them.

There was an SF50 parked on my ramp yesterday with a bunch of people looking at it.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 17 Dec 2018, 11:24

Username Protected wrote:

Cirrus should have 100 delivered by the end of 2018.

There are presently 71 SF50s in the US registry, not registered to Cirrus. There is only 1 foreign registered SF50 (serial #14). So that's 72 delivered to customers so far.

The latest SF50 registry entries are Dec 7, 2018, so the registry is at most 10 days out of date.

Recent delivery history based on registration date:

Jun: 6
Jul: 3
Aug: 5
Sep: 6
Oct: 3
Nov: 6
Dec: 3

Averages just under 5 per month. That's about half where they planned to be at this time.

So you think they can deliver 28 more SF50s in 3 weeks? No chance. Current rate suggests they deliver about 3 more, maybe 5 tops, assuming Cirrus doesn't shut down the factory for the holidays.

At this rate, the claimed 600 count order book will last a decade. Since there are practically no new sales, this is smart because investing in a ramp up costs money, just accelerates the per unit losses, and brings line shutdown closer to the present.

Mike C.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 17 Dec 2018, 11:38

Username Protected wrote:

Tim

Cirrus should have 100 delivered by the end of 2018. I think they'll get to 500 quickly. Anyone care to make a wager?[/quote]

70 delivered to date. (Directly from the source).
Sighting last Saturday in Madison.
I want one so bad.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 17 Dec 2018, 11:47

Username Protected wrote:

Averages just under 5 per month. That's about half where they planned to be at this time.

At this rate, the claimed 600 count order book will last a decade. Since there are practically no new sales, this is smart because investing in a ramp up costs money, just accelerates the per unit losses, and brings line shutdown closer to the present.

Mike C.

Go back and look at the history, Cirrus has been pretty good about adjusting production capacity to meet demand in the SR line. Why would the SF50 be any different?
I would expect a year or so after production was in full swing for Cirrus to start making production changes to decrease manufacturing time and lower costs; which should be in the spring time frame.

You are also completely speculating they are losing money on a per unit basis, and that they have not had additional sales.

Tim

Username Protected · **Posted:** 17 Dec 2018, 11:47

Username Protected wrote:

At this rate, the claimed 600 count order book will last a decade. Since there are practically no new sales, this is smart because investing in a ramp up costs money, just accelerates the per unit losses, and brings line shutdown closer to the present.

Mike C.

I’ll bet you $1000 Cirrus delivers more than 500 SF50s

Username Protected · **Posted:** 17 Dec 2018, 11:58

They’ll deliver more than 500 because it’s a bigger market. They’re breaking through the traditional jet barrier. The SEP driver is the target, just like Luc.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 17 Dec 2018, 12:01

Username Protected wrote:

They’ll deliver more than 500 because it’s a bigger market. They’re breaking through the traditional jet barrier. The SEP driver is the target, just like Luc.

The bet wasn’t for you.

I want mike to put his money where his mouth is.