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 Post subject: Re: Flying the 421 today.
PostPosted: 11 Jun 2014, 19:44 
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$10 says I'm still flying my Baron in 10 years, probably on 100ll. :thumbup:

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 Post subject: Re: Flying the 421 today.
PostPosted: 11 Jun 2014, 19:52 
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Ten years from now the GA fleet will be a lot smaller and the majority will still be old legacy planes. The price difference between new and old will be huge. Jet A will also go up to ten dollars a gallon and a replacement for 100LL will be in use. The Dukes will go first and the 421's will last longer because they are more cost effective transportation. LSA's and home built planes will have a larger market share. A large diesel powered GA fleet won't happen in the next ten years, look what happened to the VLJ boom and bust pipe dream. There will not be enough new wealthy young pilots to create the demand required for large scale production IMHO. Others can disagree this a WAG. Jerry


Actually I think ten years from now most new aircraft will burn Jet-A. Gas consumption will be trending downward and this will likely signal the death knell for most of the GA fleet.

Tim



Tim the key word is new aircraft. How many and what percentage of the fleet. New jet A GA planes will have a very small share of the market because of cost. Legacy planes will still be with us.

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 Post subject: Re: Flying the 421 today.
PostPosted: 11 Jun 2014, 20:16 
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Username Protected wrote:
Tim the key word is new aircraft. How many and what percentage of the fleet. New jet A GA planes will have a very small share of the market because of cost. Legacy planes will still be with us.


I agree, my point was if new aircraft burn Jet-A that will be the death knell for the legacy fleet. It will not die today, it will not be tomorrow but it will come. Think about this fact, 20% of the fleet burns 80% of the avgas. The average age of the planes in the 20% is less then ten years (if I recall correctly). When you run that math out, within twenty years there is the potential for 80% of the existing avgas sales to no longer exist, since those planes will be burning Jet-A instead. What will that do to support for gas for the legacy fleet?

Tim


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 Post subject: Re: Flying the 421 today.
PostPosted: 11 Jun 2014, 20:29 
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Username Protected wrote:
Tim the key word is new aircraft. How many and what percentage of the fleet. New jet A GA planes will have a very small share of the market because of cost. Legacy planes will still be with us.


I agree, my point was if new aircraft burn Jet-A that will be the death knell for the legacy fleet. It will not die today, it will not be tomorrow but it will come. Think about this fact, 20% of the fleet burns 80% of the avgas. The average age of the planes in the 20% is less then ten years (if I recall correctly). When you run that math out, within twenty years there is the potential for 80% of the existing avgas sales to no longer exist, since those planes will be burning Jet-A instead. What will that do to support for gas for the legacy fleet?

Tim



20 years from now the legacy fleet will very small or not exist at all. The question is what will replace those planes. Maybe some jet A planes, but how many? Will the airlines cover small airports? Will there be new and better modes of transportation? At this point it's just a WAG.

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 Post subject: Re: Flying the 421 today.
PostPosted: 11 Jun 2014, 20:31 
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Tim,

I agree 100%. What would be a GA REVOLUTION is a $100k 375HP turbine. It could be done and that engine could be used in everything from a SR22 to a Meridian in the singles and might even have a market for the legacy twins. The engine would be light enough to use in the smaller planes and be fuel/torque limited to each airplane. This makes a lot more sense than putting diesel engines on a Baron, Bonanza, etc. One engine for 100s of different airframes makes sense to me. Get the FAA out of the way and let people start converting. Disallow ANY product liability on the engine manufacturers behalf and let the market roll. How many G36 Bonanzas would sell for $700k with a 375 HP turbine NEW from Beech?

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 Post subject: Re: Flying the 421 today.
PostPosted: 11 Jun 2014, 20:36 
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Tim,

I agree 100%. What would be a GA REVOLUTION is a $100k 375HP turbine. It could be done and that engine could be used in everything from a SR22 to a Meridian in the singles and might even have a market for the legacy twins. The engine would be light enough to use in the smaller planes and be fuel/torque limited to each airplane. This makes a lot more sense than putting diesel engines on a Baron, Bonanza, etc. One engine for 100s of different airframes makes sense to me. Get the FAA out of the way and let people start converting. Disallow ANY product liability on the engine manufacturers behalf and let the market roll. How many G36 Bonanzas would sell for $700k with a 375 HP turbine NEW from Beech?


A turbine is too inefficient, planes would need to be redesigned to carry a lot more fuel. A small turbine has close to twice the fuel flow for the same HP as a compression ignition (aka diesel) engine.
EPS, SMA, Diamond, Lycoming and Continental all have diesel engines targeted in the 300-400HP range. The ones released have list prices in the ~$100K to ~$150K; which is a 20-50% premium over existing avgas engines. Likely works for new planes, not many legacy planes.

Tim


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 Post subject: Re: Flying the 421 today.
PostPosted: 11 Jun 2014, 20:48 
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Username Protected wrote:
Tim,

I agree 100%. What would be a GA REVOLUTION is a $100k 375HP turbine. It could be done and that engine could be used in everything from a SR22 to a Meridian in the singles and might even have a market for the legacy twins. The engine would be light enough to use in the smaller planes and be fuel/torque limited to each airplane. This makes a lot more sense than putting diesel engines on a Baron, Bonanza, etc. One engine for 100s of different airframes makes sense to me. Get the FAA out of the way and let people start converting. Disallow ANY product liability on the engine manufacturers behalf and let the market roll. How many G36 Bonanzas would sell for $700k with a 375 HP turbine NEW from Beech?


A turbine is too inefficient, planes would need to be redesigned to carry a lot more fuel. A small turbine has close to twice the fuel flow for the same HP as a compression ignition (aka diesel) engine.

EPS, SMA, Diamond, Lycoming and Continental all have diesel engines targeted in the 300-400HP range. The ones released have list prices in the ~$100K to ~$150K; which is a 20-50% premium over existing avgas engines. Likely works for new planes, not many legacy planes.

Tim



Tim what are the odds of the government getting out of the way and where are all the new RICH buyers going to come from? In ten years our pilot base will get smaller and the number of rich new pilots will be less. Just because beech could make a new 375 hp jet A bonanza for 700,000 dollars does not mean there would suddenly be a huge demand.

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 Post subject: Re: Flying the 421 today.
PostPosted: 11 Jun 2014, 21:06 
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Tim,

I turbine with a BSFC of .55 or so would work in just about anything. Tip tanks can be added to Bonanzas and many others. You would probably be using less HP from Aerodynamic drag and cooling alone to get the same airspeed. You also could pull back the power and still make more power than a NA engine at altitudes in the 12-20k range where the TAS advantage is there.

I also like the diesel idea, but you have to deal with the ability for the engine to re-start at altitude and the cooling (and weight) issues with a diesel. Build an SR22 with 20 more gallons of useable fuel and you still would weight less with the turbine and the extra fuel than you would with a turbo recip or diesel.

The savings in TBO and having a reliable turbine engine would be the icing on the cake.

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 Post subject: Re: Flying the 421 today.
PostPosted: 11 Jun 2014, 21:11 
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Username Protected wrote:
Tim what are the odds of the government getting out of the way and where are all the new RICH buyers going to come from? In ten years our pilot base will get smaller and the number of rich new pilots will be less. Just because beech could make a new 375 hp jet A bonanza for 700,000 dollars does not mean there would suddenly be a huge demand.


I think the odds are pretty good. I think most of the new diesel engines will be certified abroad and then via reciprocity will become available in the USA. Lycoming diesel research is in Italy, SMA is France, Continental is mostly Germany, Diamond is Austria... Only EPS and Deltahawk seem to really be USA based. Basically, everyone is going to avoid the FAA. :D

In terms of new rich buyers, same place they have been coming from. When you look at the number of new pilots and number of new aircraft sold they match pretty well on twenty to thirty year airplane replacement rate; roughly about 1/3 of the current fleet size we have now.

I do not think it will be a sudden new surge in demand, just that all new planes will switch from avgas to Jet-A.

Tim


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 Post subject: Re: Flying the 421 today.
PostPosted: 11 Jun 2014, 21:24 
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Now that we have ventured way off topic...


If a trend develops where regs for certified aircraft are relaxed - ie access to cheaper glass panels, autopilots etc...perhaps a 150-200HP diesel could be manufactured for the legacy fleet as a retrofit under relaxed regs....perhaps we just move our old planes into the experimental category....

I an optimist. At some point I either own scrap or have to rebuild or repower the old girl. I don't think the $700K single diesel market will ever exist....those planes will be $900-1.1M and then we will be debating king airs and used pilatuses and tbm's

Peace,
Don


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 Post subject: Re: Flying the 421 today.
PostPosted: 11 Jun 2014, 21:49 
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Username Protected wrote:
Tim what are the odds of the government getting out of the way and where are all the new RICH buyers going to come from? In ten years our pilot base will get smaller and the number of rich new pilots will be less. Just because beech could make a new 375 hp jet A bonanza for 700,000 dollars does not mean there would suddenly be a huge demand.


I think the odds are pretty good. I think most of the new diesel engines will be certified abroad and then via reciprocity will become available in the USA. Lycoming diesel research is in Italy, SMA is France, Continental is mostly Germany, Diamond is Austria... Only EPS and Deltahawk seem to really be USA based. Basically, everyone is going to avoid the FAA. :D

In terms of new rich buyers, same place they have been coming from. When you look at the number of new pilots and number of new aircraft sold they match pretty well on twenty to thirty year airplane replacement rate; roughly about 1/3 of the current fleet size we have now.

I do not think it will be a sudden new surge in demand, just that all new planes will switch from avgas to Jet-A.

Tim



Tim our current fleet size is 200,000 active planes. 30 new Jet A planes a year is only 300 in ten years. That's less than a one percent increase. You and Todd both have interesting ideas, but I do not see enough new buyers in the future to make it happen. Unless the cost comes way down below 500,000 dollars there will not be enough demand. Remember the hype over the very light jet 10 years ago. Great idea but no buyers at the projected sale price.

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 Post subject: Re: Flying the 421 today.
PostPosted: 11 Jun 2014, 22:09 
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I haven't read this entire thread, only the first two pages, but I just can't help but ask. Todd, what was the purpose of this post? The topic has been beaten to death about the 421 vs Duke over the last several months. :deadhorse: The topic is actually what got y'all suspended for a little while, so I just gotta ask, what is the purpose?

As for the two airplanes go, I looked at pretty much everything during my search and picked the 421 and have loved every second of it.


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 Post subject: Re: Flying the 421 today.
PostPosted: 11 Jun 2014, 22:13 
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I don't know Stewart. If you don't like the topic then you don't have to read it. I am glad you like your 421. It is a nice plane with a big cabin. It's performance does not impress me. A lot of Cessna Cheerleaders on this site bragging about their 421s and making claims of 220 knots cruise on 40 GPH and superior climb rates over the Duke. I have flown both and none of it is true. Just stating the facts.

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 Post subject: Re: Flying the 421 today.
PostPosted: 11 Jun 2014, 22:20 
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Username Protected wrote:
I haven't read this entire thread, only the first two pages, but I just can't help but ask. Todd, what was the purpose of this post? The topic has been beaten to death about the 421 vs Duke over the last several months. :deadhorse: The topic is actually what got y'all suspended for a little while, so I just gotta ask, what is the purpose?

As for the two airplanes go, I looked at pretty much everything during my search and picked the 421 and have loved every second of it.


:coffee:
This is the new single vs twin debate. :D

Tim


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 Post subject: Re: Flying the 421 today.
PostPosted: 11 Jun 2014, 23:11 
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I don't know what the outcome will be in 10 years but I need the nose baggage compartment in a Baron. I would prefer pressurization or a single turbine for reliability but not without increasing my baggage capability currently in the Bo. I do love flying the Bo.

Based on 200-250 hours per year in Florida, the 58 NA Baron is the way for me.

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