BeechTalk - BT

Username Protected · **Posted:** 18 Dec 2016, 21:31

Brent,

Whether Cessna 182's or G550's I have seen enough to know that new airplanes are no more reliable than well maintained older airplanes.

If the TBM that crashed was an early 700 model surely it would be due to it's age.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 18 Dec 2016, 21:32

I will second Andy's comments in that the "new new" Eclipse is behaving. They really aren't selling airplanes and have run out of planes to upgrades so I have no idea how they will survive financially but they are behaving.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 18 Dec 2016, 22:13

Username Protected wrote:

I will second Andy's comments in that the "new new" Eclipse is behaving. They really aren't selling airplanes and have run out of planes to upgrades so I have no idea how they will survive financially but they are behaving.

They're selling one or two and are making a little juice on the maintenance. Alan K is a good GA guy, he has a passion for it unrivaled by most. I would have no issue getting an Eclipse........they're great airplanes. The Canada is a very, very good airplane.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 18 Dec 2016, 23:46

Username Protected wrote:

How are you making 6% on your money? Please tell!

Equities, MLPs and private reits. Closer to double that really but I have a long term view... you can afford a TBM but can't figure out how to make 6%?

Username Protected · **Posted:** 19 Dec 2016, 00:24

Yes this was one of the first TBM 900 with a new pressurization controller in the late 850s and they had issues with sensors. Hardware as been updated since on the late 850s and early 900.
There was also training issues as the pilot was new in the 900.
The TBM is very reliable as most are well maintained.

Username Protected wrote:

less unscheduled maintenance, and less downtime during inspections.

At first glance one would assume so. I am convinced it is not so. Note the brand new TBM that had a pressurization problem and killed its pilots.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 19 Dec 2016, 00:30

Wasn't the pilot of that TBM 900 crash the president of the TBM owners & pilots association? It would seem that he would have had a ton of time in the TBM. I sure wouldn't chalk it up to training issue.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 19 Dec 2016, 00:41

Username Protected wrote:

How are you making 6% on your money? Please tell!

Equities, MLPs and private reits. Closer to double that really but I have a long term view... you can afford a TBM but can't figure out how to make 6%?

Username Protected · **Posted:** 19 Dec 2016, 00:50

The stock market has returned nearly 10% over the last 30 years per this:

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/05 ... t-returns/

Username Protected · **Posted:** 19 Dec 2016, 08:47

Username Protected wrote:

Private REITS have historically lost their hind leg when things go south.

I can afford a PC12 and I'm in MIchael's camp.........show me that over 25 years, not a bull market for the past 8.......and I'm asking in a humble way here too.

The only way to lose more money in a downturn than stocks or a REIT is by having substantial capital in a plane.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 19 Dec 2016, 20:27

Username Protected wrote:

How are you making 6% on your money? Please tell!

Equities, MLPs and private reits. Closer to double that really but I have a long term view... you can afford a TBM but can't figure out how to make 6%?

Username Protected · **Posted:** 19 Dec 2016, 21:06

I don't know... 6% isn't that difficult. It's just a matter of paying attention.

I'm no financial whiz but there are obvious opportunities. Anybody else buy heavily into energy when the rig count was hitting the bottom? If not, you missed an opportunity to make 15% in a year.

Just pay attention. That's all it takes. Also having cash to buy stuff when it's down.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 19 Dec 2016, 21:07

Username Protected wrote:

Private REITS have historically lost their hind leg when things go south.

I can afford a PC12 and I'm in MIchael's camp.........show me that over 25 years, not a bull market for the past 8.......and I'm asking in a humble way here too.

The only way to lose more money in a downturn than stocks or a REIT is by having substantial capital in a plane.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 19 Dec 2016, 21:35

Username Protected wrote:

and I agree with Michael T, been in the market's almost 25 years, with money managers, private money managers, vanguard, you name it.........5% year over year is a good number.

I'm seeing different data.

Take any of Vanguard's stock funds that have been open 20 years or more:
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... nd-returns

All but one is 8.9% or better CAGR.

Of the funds with the bad fortune of timing to open in 2000 or 2001, 75% (9 of 12) are 5.75% or greater returns for life-of-fund.

Windsor is 11.31% over a 58 year period.
US Growth is 10.14% over a 57 year period.

There is some survivorship bias in those figures, as underperforming funds would be liquidated or merged with other funds, but even with that, the figures are strong.

I don't think it's hard to get 6% CAGR (nominal) over a long planning horizon. I really looked for references to suggest a lower figure and couldn't find any.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 20 Dec 2016, 02:00

5% or 6%, whatever... it's still 100k a year at least to tie up 2m, and that's before Mx, insurance, hangar and fuel... Even if it's a "just" a 1m Meridian, that's 50k /yr before depreciation and the rest. It's hard to justify unless you really need to fly a lot, have a business write off or else you got so much cash that it just doesn't matter. I'm working on the latter. See the Penman, Be the Penman!!

Username Protected · **Posted:** 20 Dec 2016, 02:05

Username Protected wrote:

5% or 6%, whatever... it's still 100k a year at least to tie up 2m, and that's before Mx, insurance, hangar and fuel... Even if it's a "just" a 1m Meridian, that's 50k /yr before depreciation and the rest. It's hard to justify unless you really need to fly a lot, have a business write off or else you got so much cash that it just doesn't matter.

:-)

when you getting that Meridian? I know you're cooking up another great startup!!

I got an airplane and way too many kids, which means I'm broke, especially with all this damn winter sports equipment

Buying a TBM