Exactly. A jet designed to serve a piston mission sold to piston pilots.

But it could have easily been basically the same plane where it could have served a jet mission. Just add second engine.

It is as if Cirrus built a car to sell to bicyclists and it was nearly as limited as a bicycle.

Mike C.

They did get their bones pretty far into the forest, well past the corpses of so many others. Have to give them a hand for that.

But is it yet a "success"? Hard to define. I think the challenge now is producing them at a profit. Clearly they have not achieved that yet given only 11 deliveries.

Surprisingly, the SF50 was certified more than a year ago, Oct 31, 2016. Seems production isn't quite as swift as they hoped for.

Mike C.

Actually, according to GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) a sale is not a sale (i.e. it is not recognized on company books) until the product is delivered. Customer deposits are liability, not revenue.

I agree that it yet remains to be seen what the long-term success of the product is going to be. Mustang looked like a great success at first, and now it's dead. But for the moment, the rumors of Cirrus death appear to have been greatly exaggerated.

BTW, #24 is already flying, so they are certainly chugging along.

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N993 ... /KDLH/KDLH

I learned something today. All these years I thought the Sabre was a "real jet". Including that day in 1960 when I used its parachute.

After almost 500 were made. That makes it one of the most produced light jets in history when it comes to the entire line being the same configuration.

Cessna made their money back, ~1.5B in Mustang revenue.

Mike C.

The parachute lowered the plane to the ground?

Or did you mean that YOU used YOUR parachute, and the plane had NONE?

Mike C.

Several hundred Eclipse deposit holders signed contracts, paid money when they signed, and got no airplane and no money back. When you pay a deposit and sign a contract, you have a sale. When they get the airplane, you have a delivery.
Mike C.

I'm betting that if the FAA website is showing these registrations, knowing there is usually a 60-90 day lag that Cirrus is closing in on 40+ units...



Peace,
Don

The FAA registry web page is far more current than you think.

The most recent registration is 0018, registered on Oct 31, just 3 days ago.

Registration dates for customer delivered serial numbers:

0006: 1/12/2017
0007: 1/13/2017
0008: 1/11/2017
0009: 5/8/2017
0011: 7/21/2017
0012: 8/3/2017
0013: 8/1/2017
0014: foreign registered, date unknown
0015: 9/6/2017
0016: 8/31/2017
0018: 10/31/2017
0019: 10/19/2017

12 delivered so far. Rate seems to be about 2 per month presently.

Serials 0010, 0017, 0020-0024, have been seen on Flightaware, 7 airplanes.

Mike C.

Reminder, SF50 Production certificate was in May, 2017
Basically five months. I would expect it to be one or two a month. If you go back to the initial predictions, it was two a month for six months, then one a week. That is how they got the rough estimate 40 in the first year.

Tim

Let's not be too hard on Mike on what's called a sale. That term is used different ways in different businesses by different folks. Yes, the accountants using GAAP have one method, but the sales folks may call it a sale well before that and actually may get paid before it's delivered. In the new home building business it's the same. The accounting folks don't book everything until a closing occurs, but the sales folks call it a sale when a contract is signed and may get paid commissions before a closing actually occurs. They also have cancellations that have to adjust sales, but the term is clearly used by different folks in different manners. No one is wrong. Those of us that are business owners know we don't make money until a closing occurs and there is a profit, but the bars and restaurants are full of marketing folks celebrating when contracts are signed.

I learned something today. All these years I thought the Sabre was a "real jet". Including that day in 1960 when I used its parachute.

Cessna had over 500 deposits for the Mustang in 2006. They never hit 500 before they decommissioned the production line. If Cirrus follows Cessna lead, like the Mustang, the SF50 will never sell all the deposits, what 600 sales? That is because the sale of used SF50's and more capable turboprops at a heavy discount will parasite sales of new aircraft. I think Cirrus is smart and unlike Cessna, they kill 2 birds with one stone. They will kill the deposit holders by saying you can get this discounted (at a loss for Cirrus) SF50 with your deposit, or you can forget about that useless deposit and buy the non-discounted SF51 or SF60 that has more range, payload, speed, massage chairs and bling (?RVSM) for a just a little more at 2.99 mil. The deposit holders go away, because like star belly sneeches nobody wants an obsolete starless SF50 anymore, and Cirrus now can actually sell the plane for what it takes to pay back R&D, make a profit, and continue support. I may have to give up my day job and work for Cirrus. Doubt Klapmeier needs my help though.

How did that logic work out for Eclipse?

Since Ciholas used Eclipse as his analogy I'd say "case closed".