Sometimes, I feel that way reading BT...

“The sun that shines today is the sun that shone when thy father was born, and
will still be shining when thy last grandchild shall pass into the darkness.”

― George S. Clason, The Richest Man in Babylon

Warren Buffet and many other intelligent investors make a fortune buying at the bottom. Can you remember a better time in your lifetime to buy a piston twin at the current valuations? I couldn't be on a more polar opposite position at this point. I truly believe there's no better time to ever own a piston twin.

Transition and training? Piece of cake.

Cost of money? Nothing.

Performance? You got it.

Redundancy? You bet.

If you haven't run the #'s lately, you need to do it now.. Cost of ownership of a piston twin smokes the cost of an equivalent FIKI piston single.

Really, truly look at it. It took me two years to get over it but it's wonderful once you get there.

Sometimes, I feel that way reading BT...

Im just playing devil's advocate here, but if that were true everyone would be buying twins

No argument there. A true FIKI single that is any good at all starts at roughly $150k and still will not have the useful load.

These debates leave me as speechless as the Sergeant in the movie "No Time For Sergeants" when Andy Griffith, the Sergeant, and the Captain are inspecting the latrine. Griffith starts talking to the Captain and saying everything the Sarge wants to keep secret. The Sergeant can only stand there and babble in protest.

I love airplanes, aviation, GA, flying, and, most of all, my privilege of being able to do so. I'm not mad at GA, just counting the numbers, the declining numbers of pilots in an increasing population, and the steadily decreasing number of aircraft on the registry. It's all there on the FAA site and hell no I'm not going to go look them up for you cause I ain't your damn secretary.

I'll fly as long as I can and enjoy every minute of it. That doesn't change the fact that general aviation, as we have known it, is a thing of the past.

Jgreen

GA is not dying. GA is in a transition. The airlines will continue to desert the rural, small and medium cities. GA will be the only alternative.

Once the "New Normal" becomes history, I believe we'll start seeing GA sales pick up. Its been a long 6 years.

Im just playing devil's advocate here, but if that were true everyone would be buying twins

For Aerostars the prices have actually gone up a little from when I was buying mine about 1,5-2 years ago. I corroborate this with the broker I bought mine from (who only does Aerostars) - when I was looking he had 10+ 601P's and 700's for sale that hadn't moved for ages. Now, he's got like 3, none of them a 601P. And he says they're calling him like crazy every day.

So I'm not so sure the twin market has gone down overall over the last year at all. In fact, I think it might have gone up slightly as the economy has improved. Certain types or models might have gone down, that's probably true.

If someone asks me if GA is dying I will tell them yes. If they ask me if GA is dead I will tell them no. Flying in the 60's and 70's was very different than flying today. You could go just about anywhere at anytime without ever talking on the radio and more planes were in the air than today. Gas was 50 cents a gallon and there were factory FBO's and service centers about every 100 nm. In 1979 about 16,000 new GA planes were manufactured and sold in "ONE" year. If you started flying in the last 15 years then you have no clue what it was like to fly in the best years of GA.
A GA plane today is not part of your investment portfolio or net worth. It is something to be used up and worn out flying to great destinations with family and friends. There is still 100LL available and the freedom to fly our "cheap worthless" planes when ever we want to. Tomorrow I will fly my worthless 1962 A55 President two Baron that has been to Europe, South America, Central America, Alaska and all of the lower 48 states. I just installed a G500 with ALT and VS preselect with a FD. I must have raised the value 5,000 dollars. I am getting ready next spring to build 45 new large Jet A hangars at a SoCal airport and invest millions of dollars in GA.
Jet A general aviation will continue to grow, but it will not keep Piston 100LL GA from getting smaller.
Now is a great time to buy a cheap twin or single and fly it as much as you can to fun destinations. Just do not expect to get any cash back when you are finished with it.

Are you selling your new plane already?

The problem with piston twin prices is that supply >>> demand. But demand is not zero, and the low prices have the potentially good outcome of culling the old and weak. There will be some collateral damage and innocent airframes killed along the way. But, their bones will contribute to the circle of life and eventually balance will be restored. Kumbaya aside, I do think that given another 5 years or so, a lot of airframes will get scrapped and prices will rise enough so that investments like, paint or even overhauled engines, will make sense. It'll be smaller but viable.

Good thing I didn't see these types of negative comments in BT 2013 when I purchased my 1975 Beech Baron E55 with silver crown radio stack. Today the E55 has new stack with GTN 750 with an Aspen EFD 1000 with PMA8000BT and now working to add another Aspen 1000 MFD. In my humble opinion Aviation is alive and well!

I agree with Todd that the primary impediment to new pilot starts is cost and overregulation. There are plenty of people who would love to fly. In fact, I've been getting into simulators lately and discovered that the sim communities dwarf the actual pilot community. The x-plane.org forum alone has over 300k members! Nearly all of them would LOVE to fly, but most of are trying to figure out how to afford a new $200 video card. Flying is just not in the cards for them. One guy created a 3D model of Auburn airport and I promised to take him flying and he is over the moon.