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 Post subject: Re: Conforming cirrus jet doesn't suck
PostPosted: 27 Jul 2016, 09:49 
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Username Protected wrote:

Assuming you want to fly at least 30k miles per year, please find me a turboprop or jet that costs less than 70k per year to operate (all in cash costs). I searched high and low and the solitaire was as close as I could find.



My Meridian/M500 costs $200/hr in direct operating costs. At a block speed of 237, flying 30,000 nm takes 127 hours. We fly about 3 times that per year and have for the last 3 years, so my numbers have a pretty good sample size. We actually have just shy of 30K nm on our M500 since May. So 30K nm is about $25,000. Even if I throw in fixed costs, still just a little over 50K for 30K nm. The Meridian is the least expensive factory new certified Turbine out there to fly. Only thing less expensive that I know of is a Jetprop, but that is not a factory aircraft. ;) As Ken says, DOC's matter every time you fly the plane. Here is a cut of my spreadsheet for 127 hours.

Attachment:
DOC.jpg


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 Post subject: Re: Conforming cirrus jet doesn't suck
PostPosted: 27 Jul 2016, 10:01 
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Username Protected wrote:
Do you agree with that?

Yes. I certainly chose a larger more comfortable plane over one with more top end speed. The Eclipse is too small and too much money for what you get. Again, I go back to buying a used Mustang if I want a low cost, short range jet with a G1000.


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 Post subject: Re: Conforming cirrus jet doesn't suck
PostPosted: 27 Jul 2016, 10:03 
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Username Protected wrote:
That said, if you only ever flew around yourself and one or two others, the speed of the eclipse would be awesome. I am sure the 14% less time in the air decreases your costs somewhat too.

Using these numbers is speculation at best. The Eclipse is not always at 41K'. How much is Eclipse burning when ATC holds you low?

$2100 in yearly fuel cost is a rounding error at best.


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 Post subject: Re: Conforming cirrus jet doesn't suck
PostPosted: 27 Jul 2016, 10:10 
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Username Protected wrote:
Do you agree with that?

Yes. I certainly chose a larger more comfortable plane over one with more top end speed. The Eclipse is too small and too much money for what you get. Again, I go back to buying a used Mustang if I want a low cost, short range jet with a G1000.


A lot to be said for a large cabin, especially one as large as a PC12. For the average pilot moving up from a piston single that pressurized climate controlled cabin in the Eclipse can be quite inviting. Especially if configured with 4 seats. So for a personal time machine it is sized pretty nicely. I am a little surprised that Eclipse has not sold better than it has, I attribute it to the avionics, which well, are what they are. Now with Garmin in the panel, they are probably going to do much better. The plane flies pretty nicely, and is a very practical. My wife did not love the cabin compared to the PA46, and I did not love the avionics. If either of those would have been more positive I would probably be flying an Eclipse right now. Now with the Garmin coming in the Canada, and the chance to fly a 550 with no depreciation waiting for it.... Interesting. I think they sell quite a few 550's under this program.
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 Post subject: Re: Conforming cirrus jet doesn't suck
PostPosted: 27 Jul 2016, 10:37 
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Username Protected wrote:

Assuming you want to fly at least 30k miles per year, please find me a turboprop or jet that costs less than 70k per year to operate (all in cash costs). I searched high and low and the solitaire was as close as I could find.



My Meridian/M500 costs $200/hr in direct operating costs. At a block speed of 237, flying 30,000 nm takes 127 hours. We fly about 3 times that per year and have for the last 3 years, so my numbers have a pretty good sample size. We actually have just shy of 30K nm on our M500 since May. So 30K nm is about $25,000. Even if I throw in fixed costs, still just a little over 50K for 30K nm. The Meridian is the least expensive factory new certified Turbine out there to fly. Only thing less expensive that I know of is a Jetprop, but that is not a factory aircraft. ;) As Ken says, DOC's matter every time you fly the plane. Here is a cut of my spreadsheet for 127 hours.

Attachment:
DOC.jpg


So that is a factory new airplane, which means it cost you minimum 1.5mm more than me. Your annual depreciation plus note payments plus inability to write off the entire amount in a year (cheap used planes and section 179 work well together) makes your annual costs much higher than mine. The real numbers that matter are how many dollars so you spend from the moment you buy the plane till the moment you part ways with it divided by miles flown.

no question though that pa46 is efficient plane. My earlier post should have included a requirement on mission. I needed to be able to go 1000nm in IFR 95% of the time without a fuel stop. That wrote off all the pa46 turbine variants.

Interestingly enough, when I look at 5 years of ownership, the mu2 was cheaper for me than a cheap used Meredian, mainly bc of tax advantages, interest I would have had to pay, higher insurance, bigger hanger, etc.

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 Post subject: Re: Conforming cirrus jet doesn't suck
PostPosted: 27 Jul 2016, 15:56 
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[quote="Charles Ivester] Now with the Garmin coming in the Canada, and the chance to fly a 550 with no depreciation waiting for it.... Interesting. I think they sell quite a few 550's under this program.[/quote]

Charles,
The chance to fly the 550 with no depreciation is intriguing. And they offer free maintenance for 5 years. And they have also discounted the 550 a half a million dollars!
They have also made the offer to sell SE's at $2 million instead of $2.3 million if you'd rather have a refurb plane instead of new. That comes with a 3 year maintenance plan. They had 3 of those available a week ago.

They have 17 550's to sell under the program and as I understand their pitch that will keep their factory busy until the Canada is certified and built. They have 17 airframes under construction now in the factory. They said the deal was good through the end of OSH. I think will be interesting is to see how many they actually sell by the end of OSH.

Since they are practically giving 550's and SE's away why is their display so thinly populated? I saw Gordon's photo of the booth on COPA which he was spinning in a positive light but it looked practically deserted except for Eclipse employees.

On Eclipse Jet Pilots forum they are running a poll on the Canada. Of 23 respondents 4 existing Eclipse owners said they were buying and 1 non Eclipse owner was. Four others said they were thinking about it. That's not very good. I heard before OSH that they had 11 Canada's sold and someone told me a few days ago that their salesman had sold 4 in one day. That sounds better.

I wonder if they will announce at the end of OSH how well they did. My guess is survival is a cash flow exercise and they need to sell all of the 550's to do it. The 550 will never be $3.2 million again and the SE will never be $2.3 million again. They couldn't sell them at those prices before in any meaningful quantity and with the program they have going never will again.

The Canada has game changing range if you need personal transportation. I hope they make it.


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 Post subject: Re: Conforming cirrus jet doesn't suck
PostPosted: 27 Jul 2016, 17:02 
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Username Protected wrote:

So that is a factory new airplane, which means it cost you minimum 1.5mm more than me. Your annual depreciation plus note payments plus inability to write off the entire amount in a year (cheap used planes and section 179 work well together) makes your annual costs much higher than mine. The real numbers that matter are how many dollars so you spend from the moment you buy the plane till the moment you part ways with it divided by miles flown.


Depreciation is a big unknown. Depends on a lot of factors. I had a very well running Mirage, that would run LOP at over 200 KTAS on 15.6 gph. I had someone offer me cash retail 2 years into the plane. It was a Gem. I did Salt Lake to Atlanta non-stop in that plane with standard tanks, and with no alternate IFR reserves. I turned him down because I would just buy another Mirage at the time, and might have to really work on it, to get it to run as well LOP. I can't disclose what I sold my last Meridian for, just say that my biggest concern now is recapture. True depreciation is never really known until the plane is sold. Plus the tax advantages are pretty complex, and depends on what you do with that money. As far as true depreciation, you may never sell it, it could even total loss one day as an insurance claim, could find someone that just has to have that aircraft and offers a ridiculous amount of money. So I don't out too much into that side of things. DOC's, however, they are real and that money never comes back.

No doubt the MU2 is an interesting combination of speed, utility and efficiency. A little bit of a handful to fly though. I don't think on my bad days that I am that good of a pilot. ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Conforming cirrus jet doesn't suck
PostPosted: 27 Jul 2016, 18:41 
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Username Protected wrote:

ken - I flew cre to sln yesterday. I used 1823lbs on the totalizer with some big deviations. My fltplan.com profile said direct would have have been 1689lbs and that would have been spot on had I been direct.

Using an eclipse profile, it said that would burn 1569lbs.

Don't put too much credence in using a random "Eclipse profile" on fltplan.com--most of them way overstate the fuel burn. I ran it with today's headwinds using my personal profile and got 1247 lbs fuel burn. Time enroute was 3:06. That makes your actual fuel burn 46% more than the Eclipse. It would be just 35% more than the Eclipse if we took your direct number of 1689 pounds.

35% more or 46% more; either way, it's real fuel and real money. And yes indeed, burning 35% more fuel matters. At least to me ;) .

What did you say your direct operating costs per mile over the last, say, 5 years have been for your plane?

Ken


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 Post subject: Re: Conforming cirrus jet doesn't suck
PostPosted: 27 Jul 2016, 18:54 
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Wow Ken, if your numbers are correct, the eclipse should do much better range than book, right? What's your max VFR range with your profile?


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 Post subject: Re: Conforming cirrus jet doesn't suck
PostPosted: 27 Jul 2016, 19:48 
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Username Protected wrote:
Wow Ken, if your numbers are correct, the eclipse should do much better range than book, right? What's your max VFR range with your profile?

The book is correct, and my profile is based on book numbers. The current production Eclipse (500/550/SE) does about 1300 nm with VFR reserves:

Image

The new "Canada" Eclipse does over 1400 nm with NBAA IFR reserves, so it should get about 1600 nm with VFR reserves.

Ken


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 Post subject: Re: Conforming cirrus jet doesn't suck
PostPosted: 28 Jul 2016, 18:43 
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Ken,

Today the Canada doesn't do anything. It's a paper airplane and doesn't exist. Even as a prototype.

Today the Canada is vapor ware. The comments Alan Klapmeier made are very concerning about it ever getting built. Pitched as 18 months he now says 2-3 years and there is "no timetable". No contract for the engines. Going to make Garmin compete with IS&S for business on a low volume, complicated airframe. Right.

There is nothing except One's graphs to back up the range claims they are making.

To be a game changer and better than everything else the product has to exist. Right now it's just a dream.


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 Post subject: Re: Conforming cirrus jet doesn't suck
PostPosted: 28 Jul 2016, 19:50 
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Username Protected wrote:
Ken,

Today the Canada doesn't do anything. It's a paper airplane and doesn't exist.

OK, so stick to the numbers I posted for the plane that's been flying over a decade. They're pretty good numbers.

As to the "Canada," I don't share your pessimism. I don't think it's that complex of a project. If they don't get nailed on the wing stub design (which they could work around even if they do get nailed on it), there's no showstopper in it--the plane carries more fuel, uses bigger engines, and has a different panel. Do you know how many existing aircraft designs have gone through exactly that set of improvements?

Ken


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 Post subject: Re: Conforming cirrus jet doesn't suck
PostPosted: 28 Jul 2016, 20:11 
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10 years! I can't believe it's been that long. I'm glad to see you enjoying your airplane. I always was amazed at the performance and how easy it was to fly. :thumbup:


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 Post subject: Re: Conforming cirrus jet doesn't suck
PostPosted: 28 Jul 2016, 23:20 
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Username Protected wrote:
Ken,

Today the Canada doesn't do anything. It's a paper airplane and doesn't exist.

OK, so stick to the numbers I posted for the plane that's been flying over a decade. They're pretty good numbers.

As to the "Canada," I don't share your pessimism. I don't think it's that complex of a project. If they don't get nailed on the wing stub design (which they could work around even if they do get nailed on it), there's no showstopper in it--the plane carries more fuel, uses bigger engines, and has a different panel. Do you know how many existing aircraft designs have gone through exactly that set of improvements?

Ken


Ken,

Please don't misunderstand - I hope they are successful and that this isn't just a different version of what happened in Eclipse's earlier history.

But there are lots of highly speculative comparisons being made regarding the Canada's capabilities that may, or may not, actually pan out. The ONE claim of 1400 NM range is completely unsubstantiated and you've raised it to 1600 NM! I'm not pessimistic but I'm not drinking Koolaid either.

The comments Alan Klapmeier made regarding the avionics just reek of impracticality. Why would Garmin invest millions of dollars to develop the G3000 for potentially a few dozen airframes when the manufacturer won't even make a firm commitment to them (as you know Klapmeier said One wS leaving IS&S in the mix). That's ridiculous on its face.

I think the airplane that's been flying for 10 years is fine but that's not what we are talking about.

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 Post subject: Re: Conforming cirrus jet doesn't suck
PostPosted: 28 Jul 2016, 23:42 
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If you really want an entry jet with G3000 now, buy a M2.
You will get Cessna support and history with the 525 CJ airframe for around $4m.

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