By that logic, you'd prefer a 1 cylinder engine, a wing with 1 spar, no second alternator or vac pump, and no backup instruments.


Made up numbers are nice, they don't require any effort and they always support your position perfectly.

But, unfortunately, when you look at the data, it just doesn't support your assertion.

I went to the NTSB database and looked at the last 20 SE fatal accidents. Only 1 was a training flight (Zenair in McAllen, TX).

If 80% of SE fatal accidents were training flights, then the odds there would only be 1 training flight fatality in the last 20 is about 1 in a trillion (literally, 1 in 1,192,092,895,508).

Busted.

In looking at the last 50 fatals overall for all aircraft types, only 1 airplane was a piston twin, a P337 and the accident had nothing to do with having a second engine (VFR into IMC). There were three SE turboprops (Lancair Evolution in the Pacific, Meridian in NY, TBM in WI), but no twin engine turboprops.

Where are all these twins which should be falling out of the sky?


The twin is being asked to do more challenging missions, such as IFR, mountains, night, icing. If you don't normalize for that, you haven't truly measured single versus twin safety, all you did was measure mostly the pilot and mission risks, not the machine.

Mike C.

I don't care who you are, but that's funny right there! LOL!

This

This is B.S. too. Go look at Flightaware and show me what GA aircraft are most common and flying the most..... It's not propeller twins. Not even close.

Why is this not the context you address the Cirrus? You frame it with a positive slant on the twin, but negative on the Cirrus.

Flying right now according to Flightaware. Where are all the prop twins?

73 C172 Cessna Skyhawk
60 SR22 Cirrus SR-22
44 C182 Cessna Skylane
38 P28A Piper PA-28 Cherokee
37 BE36 Beechcraft Bonanza (36)
36 PC12 Pilatus PC-12
32 C208 Cessna Caravan
27 PA32 Piper Saratoga
25 C56X Cessna Citation Excel

Wow! Another seemingly simple topic that morphed into a single vs twin debate. Now we have the usual suspects slinging the same tired info back and forth. You guys need to hug it out.
Kevin

Glad you recognize the fallacy of your argument. It appears that you do, as least in some cases, prefer more points of failure in exchange for less consequence of those failures. That is the basic premise of a twin.


For those who weren't asleep in stats and prob class, they know that was a sufficient test of your theory with 99.999999999% confidence. 80% of fatal accidents in SE planes are not training, simple as that.


In the last 50 fatals, 7 are V tail Bonanzas alone. Almost all of the 50 latest fatal accidents are SE planes, only a handful of twins, jets, helicopters, gliders in there.


Nobody claimed twins were more common.

Mike C.

The most important statement of this discussion:





This

Buy what she wants*

*so long as it's bigger, faster, cooler and better equipped

Yeah that Evo crash was a strange one. The fighter pilots said the pilot was slumped over so the question remains, did he have a heart attack, stroke, lack of oxygen? Not sure, but it's definitely unfortunate.

Dennis,

You got the best advice on the very first response to this thread:



I would take much of the Twin vs Single debate with a grain of salt along with some of the statistics being quoted. The "I went to the NTSB database" arguments are misleading and meaningless. If we want to analyze statistics, there are very good studies and books on the subject, and pilot error/bad decisions are the biggest killer.

The fact is, mechanical failures (in a single or a twin) are the least of our worries when it comes to fatal accidents. The guy sitting behind the controls has been, throughout the years, the weakest link, so staying current, training and being prudent will go farther at keeping us safe than having one or two engines.

Here are the top 12 producers of fatal accidents from the research of Paul Craig on "The Killing Zone":

Continued VFR flight into IFR conditions
Maneuvering flight
Takeoff and climb
Approach and landing
Runway incursion
Midair collision
Fuel mismanagement or contamination
Pilot health and physiology
Night flying
Encounters with ice
Instrument flight
Transitioning to advanced aircraft

In fact, maneuvering flight in single engine aircraft is and has been the biggest producer of fatalities - the come fly over my house, buzz-jobs, unauthorized aerobatics, and watch this type.

A really nice way of saying grow some balls

Really, your Ovation IMO is a darn safe airplane and looks to fit your mission perfectly. Maintained correctly, engine monitor, proficient pilot, redundant systems too I think. Hard to beat

http://www.mooneypilots.com/mapalog/M20 ... _eval.html

SWMBO told me that the important feature for he is a potty with a door. She then added that AC might be good too.

Have you considered a DC3?