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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus is so far out in front.......
PostPosted: 19 May 2013, 23:08 
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I fly, maintain and manage a PC12 in my free time and I like it. People get paid to do this? Really? It's easy. I wouldn't pay anyone to do this.

I see youtube videos of PC12s flying with 2 uniformed corporate pilots and I'm like "really? These guys must be bored to death"


Hey I resemble that remark :bat:
I fly a corporate PC12, an SR22, and an R66.

You're right my job is easy and without an XM radio it would be very boring. But I tell guys like you all the time we don't get paid to fly. We get paid to live with a cell phone. We get paid to miss birthdays and anniversaries. Many could not do what we do..

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus is so far out in front.......
PostPosted: 19 May 2013, 23:20 
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If you're still in Business after 4 years of the "New Normal" of selling anything you had better be serious. I had the same situation from Piper. They called me to see if I wanted to demo a new bird. It was very nice.

I've owned a Beechcraft since 1992 (actually from a corporate standpoint since 1984) and I have never been called by Beech to inquire if I wanted a new airplane. In 2009, I may very well could have been talked into a new airplane especially with the accelerated depreciation but I had no one to talk me into anything other than looking on Controller/TAP/BT for airplanes.

If your bar for success is 13 planes a year then I guess you don't have to work so hard.

OTOH, if you don't have a superior product then you've got a hard sell. That is what the Piper salesman found out. His company also represented Pilatus so I told him to sell me a nice used one. Its been two months and I still haven't heard back from him.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus is so far out in front.......
PostPosted: 19 May 2013, 23:20 
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Joined: 08/30/08
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Username Protected wrote:
I fly, maintain and manage a PC12 in my free time and I like it. People get paid to do this? Really? It's easy. I wouldn't pay anyone to do this.

I see youtube videos of PC12s flying with 2 uniformed corporate pilots and I'm like "really? These guys must be bored to death"


Hey I resemble that remark :bat:
I fly a corporate PC12, an SR22, and an R66.

You're right my job is easy and without an XM radio it would be very boring. But I tell guys like you all the time we don't get paid to fly. We get paid to live with a cell phone. We get paid to miss birthdays and anniversaries. Many could not do what we do..


Great answer. Needless to say you are far more likely to handle an emergency better than non-pros, as was mentioned before.
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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus is so far out in front.......
PostPosted: 19 May 2013, 23:21 
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Username Protected wrote:
Beechcraft has no presence on Beechtalk......'nuff said.

That is not correct, they are here.

Define "here." I know Mark from PS Engineering, Trek from Garmin, Chuck from CMI, Randy from AP Central, Guy from GeeBee, Erik from Western Skyways, and many more, etc....they are "here".
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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus is so far out in front.......
PostPosted: 19 May 2013, 23:21 
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Username Protected wrote:
His company also represented Pilatus so I told him to sell me a nice used one. Its been two months and I still haven't heard back from him.


These are actually hard to come by.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus is so far out in front.......
PostPosted: 19 May 2013, 23:30 
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Joined: 06/28/09
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Username Protected wrote:

I see youtube videos of PC12s flying with 2 uniformed corporate pilots and I'm like "really? These guys must be bored to death"


Sounds fun to me :shrug:

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus is so far out in front.......
PostPosted: 19 May 2013, 23:39 
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Joined: 11/06/10
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Username Protected wrote:
I really hate to bring this thread full circle but...........................
These two airplanes were side by side today when I finished giving an IPC.
Same vintage, both non turbo. Who would pick the one on the right over the one on the left?


If it was a 22 on the right I would pick it (A SR20 I would sell). Otherwise I would pick the Bo and sell it. :oops:
Sure the 22 is a dime a dozen plane but they have the market mass to continue getting newer and nicer toys added before others. e.g. One of the few planes you can get a retrofit Avadyne R9 installed in.... How long has the DFC90 been available for the Cirrus, two or three years and only now available for the Bo?


Tim


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus is so far out in front.......
PostPosted: 20 May 2013, 00:29 
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Location: Redwood City, CA (KPAO)
Aircraft: 1967 Bonanza V35
Username Protected wrote:
David,

I said as much. And there have been multiple posts by insurance specialists that the insurance companies are effectively making guesses about who/how/what to underwrite based previous company loss ratios. Not based on true market data, discounts all for the same way. Based on a gut instinct. There is not enough data to truly make a conclusion.

Probably true, but at the macro level I don't think they do the opposite of what makes sense. In other words, charging more for a retract makes sense. Charging less for an IR pilot makes sense, statistically speaking.

And really the whole insurance thing was not even what I was disputing. You seem to be under the impression that higher time pilots and instrument rated pilots are more likely to get in an accident than lower time and/or VFR-only pilots. I believe you got this impression by grossly misinterpreting some statistics you read, and I was trying to point that out before you spread misinformation all over the interwebs!

Here's a quote from the Cirrus article you linked: "Unfortunately, we do not know the proportion of Cirrus pilots with high or low experience. Therefore, we cannot determine if pilots with low experience have a greater rate of accidents."

See, the author of that article gets it. Unfortunately, that one line was the only thing to prevent people from falling into the huge trap they laid with those graphs showing that more Cirri crashed with high time pilots on board than low time pilots...

Take it from the guy who has loaded over 70k accident reports into a postgres database to run queries on them (me). Per flight hour, higher time pilots are safer. A lot safer.

Quote:
But I can tell you this, most discounts for IR, ATP.... are wrong but I will take full advantage of them. Here is an example for IR:
-- More pilots have a PPL without an IR than with.
-- Logic would have people think because there are more VFR pilots than IFR qualified pilots there would be more accidents with VFR only pilots. If you check the numbers for Cirrus, and the unscientific sample I did. Guess what, they do not match logic.

Actually, logic would not have that at all. It's quite possible that all those VFR-only pilots never even leave the ground. That would make it pretty hard for them to get in an accident! Now, we know they do, in fact, fly... but my point is they might fly far, far less than their IR counterparts. If all you have is the total number of VFR and IFR qualified pilots, you cannot speculate as to which group should get in more accidents, because you don't know which group flies more.
Quote:
-- Insurance companies do not care if you fly one hour or a thousand hours a year when they write the policy. The number of hours flown is immaterial for a specific pilot. The risk is spread across the average number of hours flown by everyone in the pool.

Once you have the points above you can look for any linkages you want between type of flying (e.g. in worse weather, XC, flight hours). The discount for IR does not match actual exposure for the insurance company.


Again, I realize calculating aviation insurance premiums is more of an art than a science, but I'm pretty sure they get the big ticket items like "IR pilots are safer" right.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus is so far out in front.......
PostPosted: 20 May 2013, 00:46 
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Username Protected wrote:
Yeah, flying is easy 95% of the time. I don't get paid for that. I get paid for the 5% of the time when the SHTF and I get everyone back to the ground in one piece.

As an example, Jason flew a TAT bonanza, and the very serious malfunctions that can occur to a TAT system "just weren't on his radar." He played the odds, and his lack of preparation was never tested. :shrug: That doesn't equate to experience or capability to pass said test. So, lets not confuse riding in a high-performance plane while the autopilot flies you around with the experience that makes one qualified to assert that you have to "try to kill yourself in an airplane." Plenty of very capable people (some were friends of mine) have proven just how naive and misguided that statement really is.

Flying is easy when everything works.

P.S. This post is for those lurkers who are tempted by Jason's high post count (and all the praise he receives on this board) to necessarily take his posts as good advice. I figured another perspective should be included. It's not necessarily to start a fight.



Now that's game, set, and match...... WELL PUT


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus is so far out in front.......
PostPosted: 20 May 2013, 01:40 
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Joined: 02/01/13
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I wouldn't say that Cirrus is so far ahead across the board. I took random samples of the last ten years of all accidents recorded by the NTSB that involved Beech Bonanzas and Cirrus. 30 samples from Beech, which included single engine V-Tails and Straight Tails only, and took 30 samples from Cirrus, SR22 & SR20. The results were intriguing.

Statistics show that if a pilot is involved in an accident in a single engine Beech they will survive 73.3% of the time. However, flying a Cirrus the survivor rate is only 56.7%. Another way of saying it, if a pilot flies a Cirrus and encounters an accident the pilot will likely die 43.3% of the time. In a Beech Bonanza, the likelihood of a fatal outcome is only 26.6%.

Cirrus is way ahead actually. That’s a 62.5% increase over Beech that the pilot is more likely to die in an accident in a Cirrus vs Beech Bonanza.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus is so far out in front.......
PostPosted: 20 May 2013, 02:13 
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Location: Palos Verdes, CA (KTOA)
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A good friend of mine, who has been flying for a looong time and is a very capable pilot (not a newby greenhorn blah blah blah, whatever), and is well-heeled too, recently was in the market for a new plane. He has the money and wouldn't consider used.

He bought a Cirrus, not a Bo. When I asked him why, he said he really didn't even consider the Bo, because the new Cirrus had everything he wanted already installed... namely turbo and FIKI. The chute was just a bonus. To get turbo and FIKI done to a new Bo would have "taken too much time and would have invalidated the warranty." He is a busy guy, knew what he wanted, and didn't want to wait or do the sweat equity. Thus, he really only felt he had one option which was Cirrus.

No question we all love our planes, and most of us are very passionate about them. Part of the reason I love mine is because I get to tinker with it and enjoy the process of incrementally improving it. I suspect that these reasons may make me a dying breed unfortunately. He loves his plane because it was turn-key. He didn't and doesn't want to tinker, period. He just wanted to get in a "state-of-the-art" machine and go. And apparently this is what most new airplane buyers want, and Cirrus has figured this out very well.

Until Beech wakes up and realizes that most folks are buying Cirri for all sorts of reasons, none of which Beech is doing very well apparently, then nothing will change for Beech. Hopefully the good that will come of Beech's BK will be to force them to look in the mirror and realize that they need to make planes that people want to buy, not planes that people want to nurture. If they're smart, they're lurking this thread...


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus is so far out in front.......
PostPosted: 20 May 2013, 06:48 
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I tell myself and others that I enjoy making improvements, but in unguarded moments I have to admit that I'd take a turnkey airplane in a heartbeat.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus is so far out in front.......
PostPosted: 20 May 2013, 06:55 
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I tell myself and others that I enjoy making improvements, but in unguarded moments I have to admit that I'd take a turnkey airplane in a heartbeat.

Yeah. I about went stir-crazy for 3.5 weeks while my plane was down for some cylinder overhauls in December...

I don't like standing in lines at airports either. :pullhair:

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus is so far out in front.......
PostPosted: 20 May 2013, 07:21 
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Username Protected wrote:
A good friend of mine, who has been flying for a looong time and is a very capable pilot (not a newby greenhorn blah blah blah, whatever), and is well-heeled too, recently was in the market for a new plane. He has the money and wouldn't consider used.

He bought a Cirrus, not a Bo. When I asked him why, he said he really didn't even consider the Bo, because the new Cirrus had everything he wanted already installed... namely turbo and FIKI. The chute was just a bonus. To get turbo and FIKI done to a new Bo would have "taken too much time and would have invalidated the warranty." He is a busy guy, knew what he wanted, and didn't want to wait or do the sweat equity. Thus, he really only felt he had one option which was Cirrus.

No question we all love our planes, and most of us are very passionate about them. Part of the reason I love mine is because I get to tinker with it and enjoy the process of incrementally improving it. I suspect that these reasons may make me a dying breed unfortunately. He loves his plane because it was turn-key. He didn't and doesn't want to tinker, period. He just wanted to get in a "state-of-the-art" machine and go. And apparently this is what most new airplane buyers want, and Cirrus has figured this out very well.

Until Beech wakes up and realizes that most folks are buying Cirri for all sorts of reasons, none of which Beech is doing very well apparently, then nothing will change for Beech. Hopefully the good that will come of Beech's BK will be to force them to look in the mirror and realize that they need to make planes that people want to buy, not planes that people want to nurture. If they're smart, they're lurking this thread...

Game, Set, Match....


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus is so far out in front.......
PostPosted: 20 May 2013, 07:24 
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Location: KPTW Heritage Field Pottstown, PA
Aircraft: 1978 Baron E55
There is a big consideration that needs to come into play here. Any new person getting into aviation has a chance to own a Beechcraft, due to the vast supply of used airplanes on the market. One could certainly get a used Bo for as little as $30K, and hone their skills for a step-up plane. Doubt they could afford a used Cirrus.

What real incentive does Beechcraft have to improve their piston line? I am wondering what percentage of their total annual revenue comes from selling Bonanzas and Barons? As far I'm concerned this Cirrus vs. Beech argument is like saying Mercedes needs to improve their C-Class, since the Infiniti G37 has more gadgets and is outselling the C-Class.

I'm aware of several folks on here that have moved from a Cirrus to a G36 or Baron. Not sure as many folks are moving the other way except for Alejandro.

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Last edited on 20 May 2013, 07:27, edited 1 time in total.

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