12 Nov 2025, 08:56 [ UTC - 5; DST ]
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Post subject: Re: Best t-prop or jet for $1.3m? Posted: 10 Dec 2017, 12:16 |
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Joined: 11/08/12 Posts: 7671 Post Likes: +5047 Location: Live in San Carlos, CA - based Hayward, CA KHWD
Aircraft: Piaggio Avanti
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Username Protected wrote: The plane is a major lifestyle upgrade. It's worth it.
By your definition of "cost of capital", why does anyone buy anything? They could be making 5% on that money. It’s a good point. For me it is all relative. It is worth what I have into it. It is not worth 6x more than I have into it just to get new plane smell. You argue the PC12 is the ultimate in utility value, which is fair enough, but others argue that we get the same utility for significantly less investment. Good thing we have choices.
_________________ -Jon C.
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Post subject: Re: Best t-prop or jet for $1.3m? Posted: 10 Dec 2017, 12:24 |
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Joined: 01/29/08 Posts: 26338 Post Likes: +13085 Location: Walterboro, SC. KRBW
Aircraft: PC12NG
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Username Protected wrote: It’s a good point. For me it is all relative. It is worth what I have into it. It is not worth 6x more than I have into it just to get new plane smell. You argue the PC12 is the ultimate in utility value, which is fair enough, but others argue that we get the same utility for significantly less investment.
Good thing we have choices. I make the same rationalization for why I didn't buy a new PC12 this year. Mine is 10 years old and need some cosmetic upfits. I'm an active investor and I can make 5% after taxes pretty easily. I get the argument. But I have no desire to go through life not being a pilot. So I ignore capital cost when comparing airplanes. However,..... If "single pilot" is number 1 on your list as it is mine I see no reason to ever spend more than $5MM on an airplane. Any that cost more than $5MM will soon trade at $5MM or below. I'm trying to never spend more on a plane than what my PC12 is worth now.
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Post subject: Re: Best t-prop or jet for $1.3m? Posted: 10 Dec 2017, 12:26 |
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Joined: 09/02/09 Posts: 8726 Post Likes: +9456 Company: OAA Location: Oklahoma City - PWA/Calistoga KSTS
Aircraft: UMF3, UBF 2, P180 II
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Username Protected wrote: Because I know of no investment with a guaranteed return of even 5% with no risk of the loss of capital I can't just "assume" that it exists.
But let's say it does..... you're suggesting a life of flying commercial and traveling a fraction of the time I currently spend traveling in exchange for a 5% return on my capital? The plane is a major lifestyle upgrade. It's worth it.
By your definition of "cost of capital", why does anyone buy anything? They could be making 5% on that money.
Sorry guys..... I'm not in. Jason, One thing does not negate the other. I am 100% with you about the value of flying as a "major lifestyle upgrade". But it does come with a cost. Similarly, it costs more to fly first class on the airlines than in coach. You do make another point here that I think is valuable to also consider in the cost equation and that is the value of your time. I hadn't really thought about this much until Mark Hangen pointed it out in his jet analysis a couple of years ago. If one, or others in one's organization, are productively employed (one is not a trust baby for example) then the cost of that time should be factored into the total cost. As an example if someone making $1 million per year (or say $500 per hour) can reduce travel time by 2 hours per trip times 25 trips per year then that balances the capital expense we're discussing. "Lifestyle upgrade" is then a bonus which comes for free.
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Post subject: Re: Best t-prop or jet for $1.3m? Posted: 10 Dec 2017, 12:36 |
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Joined: 01/29/08 Posts: 26338 Post Likes: +13085 Location: Walterboro, SC. KRBW
Aircraft: PC12NG
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Username Protected wrote: You do make another point here that I think is valuable to also consider in the cost equation and that is the value of your time. I hadn't really thought about this much until Mark Hangen pointed it out in his jet analysis a couple of years ago. If one, or others in one's organization, are productively employed (one is not a trust baby for example) then the cost of that time should be factored into the total cost. As an example if someone making $1 million per year (or say $500 per hour) can reduce travel time by 2 hours per trip times 25 trips per year then that balances the capital expense we're discussing. "Lifestyle upgrade" is then a bonus which comes for free. Cost of time is something I do consider which is why I never got into working on my airplane and doing my own annuals etc. But I just don't enjoy working on airplanes. Some guys do and I get that. "Saving 2 hours per trip" is a big big IF. Mine and Penmans PC12 argument for a long time has been about "time savings". How much time is one saving owning a jet over a PC12. Phenom 300 has a 2.5 week type rating and much longer recurrent training than PC12. What happens if I can't land at EGE in the jet because of runway conditions and I have to land in Denver and drive up? There's "more to go wrong" when owning the jet. It needs more. It has more factors that are influenced by Murphy's Law than the Pilatus has. So I'm not sold that owning the jet will actually "save me time". I think it will actually "cost me time". But it's still bad ass and a box I need to check in life.
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Post subject: Re: Best t-prop or jet for $1.3m? Posted: 10 Dec 2017, 12:42 |
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Joined: 12/29/10 Posts: 2813 Post Likes: +2726 Location: Dallas, TX (KADS & KJWY)
Aircraft: T28B,7GCBC,E90
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Username Protected wrote: For a low utilization owner/pilot, these costs overwhelm the operating costs. Well said Jon, and I think this is a reason the lower end of the airplane ownership world tends to be where the owner/operators reside. While I'm not looking to upgrade in the immediate future, capital cost will be a major part of my decision. Each $500k of acquisition cost equates to $25k/year of either loan interest or lost opportunity cost (plus a higher risk of the asset not holding its value). However, the equation works both ways: If a $1mm plane is $25k a year less to operate than a $500k plane (with everything else being equal, which it never is), then the two planes are essentially the same cost to acquire. Robert
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Post subject: Re: Best t-prop or jet for $1.3m? Posted: 10 Dec 2017, 13:00 |
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Joined: 09/02/09 Posts: 8726 Post Likes: +9456 Company: OAA Location: Oklahoma City - PWA/Calistoga KSTS
Aircraft: UMF3, UBF 2, P180 II
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Username Protected wrote: You do make another point here that I think is valuable to also consider in the cost equation and that is the value of your time. I hadn't really thought about this much until Mark Hangen pointed it out in his jet analysis a couple of years ago. If one, or others in one's organization, are productively employed (one is not a trust baby for example) then the cost of that time should be factored into the total cost. As an example if someone making $1 million per year (or say $500 per hour) can reduce travel time by 2 hours per trip times 25 trips per year then that balances the capital expense we're discussing. "Lifestyle upgrade" is then a bonus which comes for free. Cost of time is something I do consider which is why I never got into working on my airplane and doing my own annuals etc. But I just don't enjoy working on airplanes. Some guys do and I get that. "Saving 2 hours per trip" is a big big IF. Mine and Penmans PC12 argument for a long time has been about "time savings". How much time is one saving owning a jet over a PC12. Phenom 300 has a 2.5 week type rating and much longer recurrent training than PC12. What happens if I can't land at EGE in the jet because of runway conditions and I have to land in Denver and drive up? There's "more to go wrong" when owning the jet. It needs more. It has more factors that are influenced by Murphy's Law than the Pilatus has. So I'm not sold that owning the jet will actually "save me time". I think it will actually "cost me time". But it's still bad ass and a box I need to check in life.
All of the assumptions one makes in determining cost and utility have a lot of room for error and fudge factoring. I think the most businesslike approach though is to at least include all the variables and make one's best efforts at getting them right. When you do some planes become less and some more expensive to own and those results aren't always intuitively obvious. Penman and I may be the only ones who believe this but I think it's true. In fact, my analysis a couple of years ago squares up with both of your contentions regarding the PC12 as the market leader in value for the money flying as it still costs less than practically every other option in part because it's depreciation is so low even though its capital cost is relatively high.
I also agree with your "save time" argument. Especially for the owner/operator. We all spend enormous amounts of time outside of actually flying, on flying, that we never take into account. I can't make a jet make sense for me in any way: money, time or anything else (except maybe safety). I'm going to do it anyway...
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Post subject: Re: Best t-prop or jet for $1.3m? Posted: 10 Dec 2017, 13:30 |
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Joined: 12/14/08 Posts: 42 Post Likes: +23
Aircraft: PIlatus PC-12/47
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Username Protected wrote: I'm trying to never spend more on a plane than what my PC12 is worth now. So, Jason, at what price and with which plane(s) would you make a switch?
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Post subject: Re: Best t-prop or jet for $1.3m? Posted: 10 Dec 2017, 15:03 |
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Joined: 08/04/08 Posts: 1799 Post Likes: +1404 Location: MYF, San Diego, CA
Aircraft: A36
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Username Protected wrote: Because I know of no investment with a guaranteed return of even 5% with no risk of the loss of capital I can't just "assume" that it exists.
But let's say it does..... you're suggesting a life of flying commercial and traveling a fraction of the time I currently spend traveling in exchange for a 5% return on my capital? The plane is a major lifestyle upgrade. It's worth it.
By your definition of "cost of capital", why does anyone buy anything? They could be making 5% on that money.
Sorry guys..... I'm not in. I don’t understand why you won’t count the cost of capital although you will count the cost of fuel. Personally, I want to estimate ALL the costs, including expected depreciation. If I choose to fly with that knowledge then I know flying is worth at least that sum. Like you, Jason, I don’t have to justify my expenditure to anyone, so there is no need for me to bury my head in the sand. Ashley
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Post subject: Re: Best t-prop or jet for $1.3m? Posted: 10 Dec 2017, 15:11 |
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Joined: 01/16/11 Posts: 11068 Post Likes: +7097 Location: Somewhere Over the Rainbow
Aircraft: PC12NG, G3Tat
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Username Protected wrote: Penman's hot section cost is a mystery to me.... I just did it through EPPS. Went as planned but it sure wasn't $7k.
Yup, Greg was surprised too. Don't think for a moment there is no reciprocity between EPPS and Vector, whom I am assuming you used. Your engine is slightly different than mine, but if you paid more than 30k with everything gone to hell then I'd be a trifle upset. I also am on EPPS during my annual..........generators replaced by Pilatus are 5,550 each. If you send them to get serviced, $2800 a piece.........but you have to ask for them to be sent out to serviced..........takes more understanding and involvement........most probably costs me more time than it's worth, but I do it anyways. Quote: Take this comparison with a (big) grain of salt. I reviewed that PDF, man that's aggressive marketing on Cessna's part...........Take off distance at 10,500 DA is 2k lower than what they are using at 5,000ft. They're claiming cheaper by the hour maintenance, surely they jest.................
_________________ ---Rusty Shoe Keeper---
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Post subject: Re: Best t-prop or jet for $1.3m? Posted: 10 Dec 2017, 15:25 |
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Joined: 01/29/08 Posts: 26338 Post Likes: +13085 Location: Walterboro, SC. KRBW
Aircraft: PC12NG
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Username Protected wrote: I'm trying to never spend more on a plane than what my PC12 is worth now. So, Jason, at what price and with which plane(s) would you make a switch? CJ3/CJ4 or Phenom 300
CJ3 is there price wise for me to make the swap but I'd really rather get the Phenom. If I buy the CJ3 the Phenom is still out there.. If I just go get the Phenom there's nothing to move up to. I'm done.
There is of course the PC24 but I think I'm years away from one being at $5MM.
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Post subject: Re: Best t-prop or jet for $1.3m? Posted: 10 Dec 2017, 15:26 |
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Joined: 01/29/08 Posts: 26338 Post Likes: +13085 Location: Walterboro, SC. KRBW
Aircraft: PC12NG
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Username Protected wrote: I don’t understand why you won’t count the cost of capital although you will count the cost of fuel. Personally, I want to estimate ALL the costs, including expected depreciation. If I choose to fly with that knowledge then I know flying is worth at least that sum. Like you, Jason, I don’t have to justify my expenditure to anyone, so there is no need for me to bury my head in the sand.
Ashley I can't be any more clear than I've already been. Counting the cost of capital means "getting rid of the airplane all together" is an option and it's not. Never. No way. Regardless.... cost of capital is the same for PC12 and CJ3 so it doesn't matter. Depreciation on the hand is wildly different between the 2.
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Post subject: Re: Best t-prop or jet for $1.3m? Posted: 10 Dec 2017, 16:27 |
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Joined: 01/29/08 Posts: 26338 Post Likes: +13085 Location: Walterboro, SC. KRBW
Aircraft: PC12NG
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Username Protected wrote: Jason, how much could you get for your PC12 tomorrow if you turned around and sold it? Somewhere between 3.1 and 3.2
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Post subject: Re: Best t-prop or jet for $1.3m? Posted: 10 Dec 2017, 16:32 |
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Joined: 12/17/13 Posts: 6652 Post Likes: +5963 Location: Hollywood, Los Angeles, CA
Aircraft: Aerostar Superstar 2
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Username Protected wrote: Jason, how much could you get for your PC12 tomorrow if you turned around and sold it? Somewhere between 3.1 and 3.2
That's impressive for a 10 year old bird. Perhaps we've reached "peak-PC12 used values" as competitors come online and age of fleet increases. Do you think they'll start to depreciate more in the coming years? Is it coming up on the best time to sell them?
_________________ Without love, where would you be now?
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