28 May 2025, 13:10 [ UTC - 5; DST ]
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Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX Posted: 02 Feb 2021, 21:47 |
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Joined: 06/25/10 Posts: 13148 Post Likes: +21059 Company: Summerland Key Airport Location: FD51
Aircraft: P35, GC1B
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Username Protected wrote: Yikes. Big boom. Glad they didn't take out the other booster sitting there! Shrapnel from the explosion may have damaged the other booster. Musk’s Twitter feed is also uncharacteristically quiet ...
Parking it that close was... really dumb.
_________________ Being right too soon is socially unacceptable. — Heinlein
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Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX Posted: 02 Feb 2021, 21:58 |
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Joined: 03/23/08 Posts: 7357 Post Likes: +4086 Company: AssuredPartners Aerospace Phx. Location: KDVT, 46U
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Username Protected wrote: Parking it that close was... really dumb.
Note they drove their good crane a Loooong way away. Maybe 10 isn't all that precious.
_________________ Tom Johnson-Az/Wy AssuredPartners Aerospace Insurance Tj.Johnson@AssuredPartners.com C: 602-628-2701
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Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX Posted: 02 Feb 2021, 22:11 |
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Joined: 03/07/16 Posts: 888 Post Likes: +439 Location: KBJI
Aircraft: Whatever I can rent
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Username Protected wrote: Bring binoculars...  And ear protection. 
Also your drone, you can get much better shots up close.
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Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX Posted: 03 Feb 2021, 09:20 |
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Joined: 04/26/13 Posts: 21663 Post Likes: +22220 Location: Columbus , IN (KBAK)
Aircraft: 1968 Baron D55
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Username Protected wrote: Over the last 15+ years I've watched a lot of college engineering student groups do liquid rockets that the FAR site.
LOX has reasonable thermodynamics ie it does not get too fluffy if ia bit warm. Based on some availible prize $ there was a big push in the last 5 years to do methane.
This increased the thermodynamic propellant conditioning problems by at least 4X. Let Methane get even a little bit warm and it looses a lot of density.
Spacex is trying to run Methanes down a long pipe from a header tank up at the top/front of the rocket. (The tanks are upfront for CG reasons) %#$@ going to be really hard to keep the methane cold and dense at the bottom of a long pipe.
IMHO they will need either active cryogenic cooling or active circulation AND excess tankage to make this happen.
The multiple short hot fire tests that ran last week or two killed two raptor.... I believe these were header tank start tests....
I'll make a wild speculation.... Spacex will build a fixture to hold a SNx on its side so they can test the landing restart under the expected acceleration orientation....without risking the vehicle... Actually the Methane (fuel) header tank is in the center of the vehicle, surrounded by the main propellant and oxidizer tanks. The single (shared) pipe that delivers fuel to the motors runs through the center of the LOx tank where it stays nice and cold. There is no difference in distance. The header tank at the top is the oxidizer header. Attachment: EU5wwatXYAA4ali_Rafael_Adamy-scaled.jpg Methane is indeed picky about igniting. Spark ignited NG fueled engines operate in a very narrow mixture range. I would imagine that exothermic motors are similarly picky, however the Merlins have been lighting and relighting very reliably for a long time, so in my mind the problem is most likely related to fuel delivery. It's interesting that they got a better light off on SN8. It looked too as though the one Raptor that lit was burning well, with a good flame. The other simply wouldn't light. I agree that unless there's some clearly understood reason for this failure, they may need to test horizontally, but I don't see them doing it with a Starship. It would be much quicker and more practical to do it with a test rig that's built for the purpose. My guess is that they either already know what went wrong or have a pretty good idea. The worst case would be if there's no way to correct the issue without disassembling SN10.
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_________________ My last name rhymes with 'geese'.
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Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX Posted: 03 Feb 2021, 09:31 |
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Joined: 07/19/10 Posts: 3166 Post Likes: +1539 Company: Keller Williams Realty Location: Madison, WI (91C)
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Username Protected wrote: The worst case would be if there's no way to correct the issue without disassembling SN10. They can always take SN11 or 12 or whatever is right now in the pipeline. Me thinks they rolled out SN10 partially to show off their capabilities in rapid assembly, but also to free the space in assembly building for next one in line. I'm wondering though if that speed isn't hindering progress - it's going to be hard to modify SN10 if test data show need for it.
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Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX Posted: 03 Feb 2021, 09:38 |
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Joined: 04/26/13 Posts: 21663 Post Likes: +22220 Location: Columbus , IN (KBAK)
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Username Protected wrote: The worst case would be if there's no way to correct the issue without disassembling SN10. They can always take SN11 or 12 or whatever is right now in the pipeline. Me thinks they rolled out SN10 partially to show off their capabilities in rapid assembly, but also to free the space in assembly building for next one in line. I'm wondering though if that speed isn't hindering progress - it's going to be hard to modify SN10 if test data show need for it. They skipped over, I think four, serial numbers and are working on SN15 right now, which suggests that they learned enough with this version to move right to the next generation. If it's an integral design problem with the fuel system they'll have to make the change in one of these later builds. in that case they might launch SN10 anyway with fingers crossed but no expectations; it's already built, what else are they going to do with it?
_________________ My last name rhymes with 'geese'.
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Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX Posted: 03 Feb 2021, 09:54 |
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Joined: 07/19/10 Posts: 3166 Post Likes: +1539 Company: Keller Williams Realty Location: Madison, WI (91C)
Aircraft: 1967 Bonanza V35
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Username Protected wrote: They skipped over, I think four, serial numbers and are working on SN15 right now, which suggests that they learned enough with this version to move right to the next generation. If it's an integral design problem with the fuel system they'll have to make the change in one of these later builds. in that case they might launch SN10 anyway with fingers crossed but no expectations; it's already built, what else are they going to do with it? Yeah, they can always use it to further test other areas of flight (20km? longer hovering?) and hope tweaks in software would let it land. On the other hand if the probability of crash is 1 they might want to at least save the raptors and other internal hardware even if the shell is toast... or add a chute and test that as an emergency backup - do the flip at 5000ft and pull the red handle.
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Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX Posted: 03 Feb 2021, 11:04 |
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Joined: 04/26/13 Posts: 21663 Post Likes: +22220 Location: Columbus , IN (KBAK)
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Username Protected wrote: They skipped over, I think four, serial numbers and are working on SN15 right now, which suggests that they learned enough with this version to move right to the next generation. If it's an integral design problem with the fuel system they'll have to make the change in one of these later builds. in that case they might launch SN10 anyway with fingers crossed but no expectations; it's already built, what else are they going to do with it? Yeah, they can always use it to further test other areas of flight (20km? longer hovering?) and hope tweaks in software would let it land. On the other hand if the probability of crash is 1 they might want to at least save the raptors and other internal hardware even if the shell is toast... or add a chute and test that as an emergency backup - do the flip at 5000ft and pull the red handle. Yeah, I don't get the impression that it's a software issue. I think their software is probably spot-on, it's been mechanical/physical issues both times.
We aren't going to be seeing any parachutes because they don't further the goal. The goal is not to save the prototype, it's to land propulsively. I agree with the point about saving the Raptors and scrapping the rest if there's something that they can't fix in the build. That's most likely if it's that level of problem.
In the longer range view I think that they need to develop a backup plan that will allow more than the minimum number of engines required to be started, and then once landing is assured, switch off all but the number that they need. The way it is there is no redundancy and that won't work for manned missions.
_________________ My last name rhymes with 'geese'.
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Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX Posted: 03 Feb 2021, 17:44 |
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Joined: 12/07/17 Posts: 6976 Post Likes: +5869 Company: Malco Power Design Location: KLVJ
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Username Protected wrote: This thread reminds me that on the internet, everyone is an expert. I’m not an expert but my common sense does wonder why they don’t start all three briefly and then shut one down again if they all start or keep the two that start if only two fire up. It may be the case that this is just testing and in the full up build they’ll have enough mass left on landing that the difference between too much thrust and not enough thrust is within the throttle range of both n engines they plan to start and n-1 or n-2 engines in case one or two don’t come back to life.
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Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX Posted: 03 Feb 2021, 18:05 |
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Joined: 11/08/12 Posts: 7345 Post Likes: +4825 Location: Live in San Carlos, CA - based Hayward, CA KHWD
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Username Protected wrote: I’m not an expert but my common sense does wonder why they don’t start all three briefly and then shut one down again if they all start or keep the two that start if only two fire up.
It may be the case that this is just testing and in the full up build they’ll have enough mass left on landing that the difference between too much thrust and not enough thrust is within the throttle range of both n engines they plan to start and n-1 or n-2 engines in case one or two don’t come back to life. I also am not an expert, but if I were considering a space tourism adventure I would not want to be in a landing vehicle where the required engines did not ALL light off RELIABLY. Every time!  I would be a lot less interested if they have to try to light 3 engines to get one to light reliably...
_________________ -Jon C.
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Post subject: Re: Bravo SpaceX Posted: 03 Feb 2021, 18:24 |
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Joined: 12/07/17 Posts: 6976 Post Likes: +5869 Company: Malco Power Design Location: KLVJ
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Username Protected wrote: I’m not an expert but my common sense does wonder why they don’t start all three briefly and then shut one down again if they all start or keep the two that start if only two fire up.
It may be the case that this is just testing and in the full up build they’ll have enough mass left on landing that the difference between too much thrust and not enough thrust is within the throttle range of both n engines they plan to start and n-1 or n-2 engines in case one or two don’t come back to life. I also am not an expert, but if I were considering a space tourism adventure I would not want to be in a landing vehicle where the required engines did not ALL light off RELIABLY. Every time!  I would be a lot less interested if they have to try to light 3 engines to get one to light reliably...
I’d want both.
I’d want them to be able to say something like “99.9999% of the time (999,999 times out of 1 million attempts) they all light fine, but in case they don’t we don’t need all of them anyway.”
There’s no such thing as a mechanical device that works as expected EVERY time. Reliability engineering is about planning for and mitigating the consequences of failures that will eventually happen.
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