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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 May 2016, 06:53 
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Jason,

I would think that all those numbers are pretty accurate…maybe not to the last digit..

but think of it this way, all those turbine powered airplanes, no matter who maintains them, they need a hot section at times, need an engine overhaul, props are overhauled..so the aircraft manufacturer, but naturally also the engine manufacturers know pretty well at what airframe times and/or cycles certain parts for the airplane, engine or other components or SB kits were bought..when and why..

and they keep very good track of that, and all that goes into pretty sophisticated data bases..

has to, because the OEMs have to get feed back, not the least, to keep their production certificates intact in front of the authorities..it is required..

so, I'd assume those numbers are pretty watertight..

Gerd

I don't doubt the cumulative flight hours are accurate.

What I doubt is the 350 is so much safer than the 200 when it has 1/4th the cumulative flight hours. "Cumulative flight hours" is no way to look at this. Each flight has dangerous phases and not dangerous phases. IMO "cycles"(flights) would be the only way to draw an accurate conclusion. There are loads more 200's flying every day than 350's. There's a hell of a lot more opportunity every day for a 200 to have a crash than a 350.

An airplane flying has a much higher chance of crashing than one sitting in a hangar.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 May 2016, 07:04 
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Username Protected wrote:
What I doubt is the 350 is so much safer than the 200 when it has 1/4th the cumulative flight hours. "Cumulative flight hours" is no way to look at this. Each flight has dangerous phases and not dangerous phases. IMO "cycles"(flights) would be the only way to draw an accurate conclusion. There are loads more 200's flying every day than 350's. There's a hell of a lot more opportunity every day for a 200 to have a crash than a 350.


certainly, am sure a lot of very different factors play a role..

The King Air 350 though really seems to stand out with a beautiful safety record up to now ( and not just compared to other turboprops, but generally compared to all turbines.)..is it because the 350 from the start was very well balanced airframe / engine combination?..probably…is it the way they are operated?..probably..

last but not least, and there the 350 could be compared to the PC 12 maybe ( which also stands out as a very safe airplane..)..you have a relatively young "fleet age"..


Last edited on 03 May 2016, 08:37, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 May 2016, 07:08 
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Username Protected wrote:
last but not least, and there the 350 could be compared to the PC 12 maybe ( which also stand out as a very safe airplane..)..you have a relatively young "fleet age"..

Fleets with the highest hours probably have the most accurate information attached to them.

It's 7am right now and according the Flightaware there are 17 PC12's flying and 1 KA350. Those numbers will hold throughout the day.

Right now, the PC12 is 17 times more likely to have a crash. There are 17X more of them flying.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 May 2016, 07:15 
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well. good question, Jason…

but a spotlight on Flightaware may not tell the whole story..

if you look at first service entry of both types (350 & PC-12) eary 90's and the numbers produced since then…those number are pretty close together..

I took delivery of a 350i ( FL-955) end of 2014…so do not know how many had been delivered since then..maybe they are at FL-1050'sh somewhere..and PC-12s..well maybe some 1350 or so delivered since then..so they are pretty close together..maybe even in regards to total fleet hours..but still an overall very young fleet..


Last edited on 03 May 2016, 07:22, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 May 2016, 07:20 
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Username Protected wrote:
well. good question, Jason…

but a spotlight on Flightaware may not tell the whole story..

if you look at first service entry of both types (350 & PC-12) eary 90's and the numbers produced since then…those number are pretty close together..

I took delivery of a 350i ( FL-955) end of 2014…so do not know how many had been deliverd since then..maybe they are at FL-1050'sh somewhere..and PC-12s..well maybe some 1350 or so delieverd since then..so they are pretty close together..maybe even in regards to total fleet hours..but still an overall very young fleet..

Which plane is more likely to crash?

The plane on a 4 hour flight?

The plane doing 4-1 hours flights?

At any given moment during the day there are loads more PC12 flights than KA350 flights. It would be cool if Flightaware kept track of "total number of flights by type in a year". If the PC12 fleet has 17X the number of flights in a year compared to the KA350 fleet but has 2X the fatalities does that make the KA350 safer? NO

All I'm saying is I wouldn't make a buying decision based on the data posted on the previous page. That data tells 10% of the story.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 May 2016, 07:29 
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Username Protected wrote:
All I'm saying is I wouldn't make a buying decision based on the data posted on the previous page. That data tells 10% of the story.


interesting point…just as a side note..

If I remember well, Jason you will know better, but didn't Pilatus have a sales & marketing brochure ( it's sweet to be single..) where if I remember well they used pretty much the exact same figures as presented before in that thread..to differentiate between fact and fiction in regards to the single versus twin debate..( and I do not want to go into that…)?

BUT they pulled that brochure from their web-site..

I guess for purely psychological reasons..as legit it may be to use statistics in sales & marketing for planes..I do not think it is such a swell idea..because you are going "negative" doing that…and that is a touchy subject in aircraft advertising..


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 May 2016, 07:32 
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Username Protected wrote:
All I'm saying is I wouldn't make a buying decision based on the data posted on the previous page. That data tells 10% of the story.


interesting point…just as a side note..

If I remember well, Jason you will know better, but didn't Pilatus have a sales & marketing brochure ( it's sweet to be single..) where if I remember well they used pretty much the exact same figures as presented before in that thread..to differentiate between fact and fiction in regards to the single versus twin debate..( and I do not want to go into that…)?

BUT they pulled that brochure from their web-site..

I guess for purely psychological reasons..as legit it may be to use statistics in sales & marketing for planes..I do not think it is such a swell idea..because you are going "negative" doing that…and that is a touchy subject in aircraft advertising..

Everyone (especially politicians) will use any statistics released to their benefit. I just don't like statistics because they never tell the whole story.

Pilatus still markets the fact that they are a single. They haven't pulled anything. Are you implying Pilatus is trying to hide the fact that it's a single?

Back to the data on the previous page........ I'd also love to know how many of those KA350 fatalities had 2 pilots on board vs. 1.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 May 2016, 07:36 
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Username Protected wrote:
Pilatus still markets the fact that they are a single. They haven't pulled anything. Are you implying Pilatus is trying to hide the fact that it's a single?


well did not know that…

no, am not implying that at all…

I think Pilatus has answered these questions for their product and their customers..( excellent machine by the way..)

just say, and agree with you, those statistics do not tell the whole story..especially if you compare fleets that are close to 30 - 50 years "old" with newer models…

or let me just say, while we are very far OT now on that thread..

let's take the King Air 90 & 200 models..just because Jim Allmon was just stating some important facts in the Beech Turbine section..

do we know statistics in between older 90's and 200's that still have their original engines after the umpteenth overhaul on them versus the upgraded ( Blackhawk) birds..?

no, but I'd assume the upgraded birds will look a lot better..why?..well the most important component of the birds, the engines were replaced with NEW ones..means latest SB status, all new parts with the latest engine manufactuerer#s mods in them..…not thousands of thermal cycles on them..better performance ( performance also equals safety..)

so, yes I would agree to make sense of those statistics is a lot more involved than what they portray at first sight..


Last edited on 03 May 2016, 08:38, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 May 2016, 07:49 
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Flying an airplane that's trying to kill you doesn't make you a better pilot. Extra training to overcome a design flaw doesn't make you a better pilot.


I disagree. It called Darwinism. May the strong survive.

Tim (could not resist that one)


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 May 2016, 07:56 
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Flying an airplane that's trying to kill you doesn't make you a better pilot. Extra training to overcome a design flaw doesn't make you a better pilot.


I disagree. It called Darwinism. May the strong survive.

Tim (could not resist that one)

Which is Darwinism?

Choosing to put yourself in a dangerous airplane with a terrible safety record?

Choosing to put yourself in a safe airplane with an outstanding safety record?

Flying right now (8am) according to Flightaware:

23 PC12
0 MU2

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 May 2016, 08:40 
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They sold because they knew their airplane was about to take a dump and they'd never get rid of it long term.

Didn't happen. MU2s held their value due to enough new buyers during that time.

Whatever value the SFAR was going to have was already priced in by the time they sold.

The new training was a positive for some buyers.

Quote:
How many MU2's flights are there every day?

Approximately 70 on average.

Quote:
Flying an airplane that's trying to kill you doesn't make you a better pilot. Extra training to overcome a design flaw doesn't make you a better pilot.

As has been posted many times before, the MU2 has been reviewed very intently by the FAA and has no design flaw. Please search for those threads.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 May 2016, 08:47 
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Username Protected wrote:
It's 7am right now and according the Flightaware there are 17 PC12's flying and 1 KA350. Those numbers will hold throughout the day.

I think you've proven KA350 operators prefer privacy much more than PC12 operators.

Quote:
Right now, the PC12 is 17 times more likely to have a crash.

Accident RATE normalizes for exposure.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 May 2016, 09:02 
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Username Protected wrote:
I disagree. It called Darwinism. May the strong survive.

Tim (could not resist that one)

Which is Darwinism?

Choosing to put yourself in a dangerous airplane with a terrible safety record?

Choosing to put yourself in a safe airplane with an outstanding safety record?

Flying right now (8am) according to Flightaware:

23 PC12
0 MU2


Any of the above. :cheers:

Tim

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 May 2016, 10:23 
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[
As has been posted many times before, the MU2 has been reviewed very intently by the FAA and has no design flaw. Please search for those threads.

Mike C.

Then why the SFAR?


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 May 2016, 10:25 
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Username Protected wrote:
Quote:
Right now, the PC12 is 17 times more likely to have a crash.

Accident RATE normalizes for exposure.

Mike C.

"Exposure" is the term in question right now. Define it.

What has more "exposure"? A plane on a 4 hour flight or a plane doing 4-1 hour flights?


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