Seems like it is:

I've come to believe this is a ruse to create publicity.

There's no practical value in humans being on Mars. The effort to get there and not die is so extreme there's nothing left you can do of any value.

Mike C.

I've come to believe this is a ruse to create publicity.

There's no practical value in humans being on Mars. The effort to get there and not die is so extreme there's nothing left you can do of any value.

Mike C.

If that's the idea, it's become a theological issue. I'm not interested in funding whatever is the official US government eschatology.

Not sure I understand your point. Maybe its because I'm not a smart man, I had to look up a word to try to understand, still didn't get me there.

The point of interstellar travel is the same reason that we own airplanes, the same reason we went to the moon, the same reason Columbus and the Vikings crossed the ocean.

We do these these because deep down we as humans have the desire and drive to explorer, to learn to grow.

SLS will most likely fail because the US government is stuck in analysis paralysis, because we pick crews based on genitalia and color rather than skills, because we wont allow engineers and scientists to take chances allowing themselves and the program to grow and succeed.

Very excited to see Elon take a shot at Mars, succeed or fail, it will be a hell of an inspirational ride!

If humans on Earth die, the humans on Mars do, too. Mars will be totaly dependent on the supplies from Earth.


Analyze what that means.

Note that are essentially NO organic molecules on Mars. Basically zero. Now consider all the things that require organic molecules.

Are we going to have a silicon fab line on Mars? If not, society there has to survive without any microelectronics.

The amount of infrastructure that would be required to build a modern self sustaining population on Mars would bankrupt the Earth.

Using Mars as a life boat for the Earth is tremendously impractical. We would be better building an underground compound on Earth to protect a few thousand people for a few decades if that's the real threat.

Mike C.

For space exploration / colonization my favorite argument has always been:

Either we are, or are not the only technological race in the universe. If we are, then it would be a shame that all the vastness of the universe was never seen by anything that could appreciate it. If we are not alone, then history shows that when the guys on the ships meet the guys on the shore, it usually ends badly for the guys on the shore. Lets be the guys on the ships.

If humans on Earth die, the humans on Mars do, too. Mars will be totaly dependent on the supplies from Earth.


Analyze what that means.

Note that are essentially NO organic molecules on Mars. Basically zero. Now consider all the things that require organic molecules.

Are we going to have a silicon fab line on Mars? If not, society there has to survive without any microelectronics.

The amount of infrastructure that would be required to build a modern self sustaining population on Mars would bankrupt the Earth.

Using Mars as a life boat for the Earth is tremendously impractical. We would be better building an underground compound on Earth to protect a few thousand people for a few decades if that's the real threat.

Mike C.

You are all missing the point.

The exclusive purpose of SpaceX is to put Elon on Mars and keep him there (alive if possible). If there is any other tangential activity it is only because it serves that purpose. What NASA wants or how Artemis benefits, or anything else, is only included because it furthers SpaceX’ one and only goal.

Is it theological? Maybe. If so it is and has always been Elon’s theology. He has stated clearly the reason he wants to establish a permanent civilization on Mars. That’s the purpose of Starship, that’s the prime directive of SpaceX. Everything else that they do is in some way supportive of that goal. Starship was not made to go to the moon, but that activity provides funding for development of the spacecraft that will take Elon to Mars. Starlink wasn’t made because the broadband at Elon’s house sucks, it’s to generate revenue to fund the development of the spacecraft that will take Elon to Mars.

This isn’t about NASA or us, it’s about the vision, crazy or not, of one man who has the money to maybe make his dream of living on another planet a reality.

You might want to run that by Ferdinand Magellan just for grins.

I don’t disagree with the “be on the boats” idea, but when you go poking around in unexplored corners you never know what you might find.

It didn't end well for Magellan. OTOH, it did OK for his culture, relative the cultures on the Islands.

The guys on the ships control the contact. When things go wrong they loose the ship as opposed to the home culture.

Agree, though that its risky.


You might want to run that by Ferdinand Magellan just for grins.

I don’t disagree with the “be on the boats” idea, but when you go poking around in unexplored corners you never know what you might find.

That is not true.

The settlers could survive without Europe. Indeed, America was almost immediately a net exporter of material to Europe, not the other way around. The new world provided new foods that have become the staple of the world like corn and potatoes. Mars won't do that, there's nothing there we need.


CO2 is not an organic molecule.

"Organic molecules are molecules that are made of carbon and hydrogen, and can include other elements. Organic molecules must contain carbon atoms covalently bonded to hydrogen atoms (C-H bonds)."

On Earth, organic molecules obviously form life, but they also serve so many non obvious purposes like fuel, plastic, solvents, lubricants, medicines, etc.

Also, Mars atmosphere is less than 1% as dense as Earth, so even a 95% CO2 level is basically nothing.

Mike C.

Assuming there are no intelligent life forms in our solar system, you are talking about interstellar travel. That is so far out of reach as to be impossible even in our wildest dreams. It will take new and as yet unimaginable physics to accomplish that.

If you could travel at the speed of light, it would still take 5 years to reach the nearest star and the interstellar dust you would encounter at that speed would incinerate your spaceship along the way.

The universe seems to be constructed to keep civilizations apart. That may be a very good thing.

Mike C.

The molecules to make organics are present. The infrastructure to convert CO2->CO and run a Fischer-Tropsch would be tough, but you could eventually make self-sustaining hydrocarbon chains on Mars assuming ample supplies from Earth are provided to create a chemical plant. There's hydrogen in the upper atmosphere and underground as H2O.

I can't imagine the time and cost commitment required to seed an industrial revolution on another planet, but it'll be quite the feat. We're not going to see it in our lifetimes, but if it ever is going to happen then a handful of crazies have to make a dangerous journey and make it a little less dangerous for the next one. Future generations will [hopefully] read of these frontiersmen like Shackleton and become part of an explorer's lore (he probably didn't take out that Antarctica ad).

Great wealth will fund illogical explorers to go to Mars because it's what some people just yearn for. It's because it's next. And over a few generations, some civilization is bound to follow and we'll do what we do best: figure it out.

Yes, but wouldn't the more logical step be to learn how to live autonomously, or nearly so, on the moon first? Your boat ride is shorter, your resources and help are closer. Once you've cut your teeth so to speak on the moon, it's another big, but much smaller step to take that knowledge and apply it to living on Mars.

Visiting Mars, Exploring Mars, those are still options in the short term while we play house on the moon, but going, looking around, and coming home is very different from trying to live there with or without a lifeline to Earth. Given the politics involved in a major space program I wouldn't want to bet my survival on the continued support of anyone, public or private.