Chip can probably speak better to this, but you may be without a plane for many many months, and I haven't been able to put a price on that....it's miserable and extremely costly to use the alternatives, and the insurance you'll be quoted on that new airplane you're stepping up to.....that'll be surprise #2

The direct answer is No.

Whether you look at 2yr / 10 yr spread, or if you were were even alive and aware of aircraft prices in the last twenty years,….or currently understand little to zero about current financial markets, quantitative tightening ahead, rising rates, and aging aircraft issues, whether we find utility or romance in them or not,…the answer is No, and no at this time.

Consider demographic changes as well as financial market conditions and there’s more to discuss as well. This is 2008 but also a broader and more fractured contraction that everyone is not keen on examining right now.

The used Turbines have peaked, and prices will come down with more planes on the market.

When will there be more (turbine) planes on the market? I keep waiting. I have clients waiting…

When will there be more (turbine) planes on the market? I keep waiting. I have clients waiting…

One million over market for mine would still be a deal to a buyer as they would have a bird 100 knots faster than a Pilatus at about one million less.

I WILL be available after 2 pm today Chip

There are several issues taking place which will impact the supply side of the market.

The OEMs are building new aircraft if they can obtain the parts and labor. Regardless, the factories are churning out new aircraft - and some current owners will step up to newer aircraft - in spite of the backlog.

Those aircraft that HAD to be purchase for cash at those insane prices are (yes, with no prebuy or mechanical inspection), according on one attorney at least, now may be finding their way back into the marketplace. It seems that the "deal at any price" just wasn't true if the desire was to put these on a Part 135 - and possibly Part 91. This leads to the final point.

Due to supply chain issues, some of these aircraft remain disassembled waiting on parts to arrive. They have been waiting for months and may be waiting for months more it appears.

All of this aside, the PAAO doesn't see values at the crazy state the market was in earlier this year. Values are expected to be returning to a more normal state but each year/make/model will be different, of course.

Good luck.

I'm not seeing any change in availability on the piston side, if one goes by the trades. If anything, inventory has tightened even more.

One explanation may be that more deals are being done outside the trades, via broker to broker or person to person, but I have no evidence this is the case.

Best,
Rich

In this market, it will be difficult to find the opportunities in the trades. I am not disparaging any reader or taking shots at those folks who are working hard every day for their clients. I will say that to find a suitable aircraft it takes both a purchasing process and something that is dressed in overalls and looks like "work".

If advertised, the good ones are gone before you can blink.

Good luck.

I hope so, I really do, but "hope deferred makes the heart sick" and so far the waiting strategy hasn't paid off.

In December 2021 I was sure the Pilatus market couldn't get any crazier, one out of three Pilatus clients paid the price and bought at the top of the market, only it wasn't the top... not even close. We missed opportunities, ones that didn't seem even marginal at the time, that now seem like steals. The last two years have been a lot of hard work, extra effort and disappointment for my team. We'll see what happens, but without a major economic disruption I don't see higher inventory or lower prices.

At this point I'd be happy if prices for CJ - CJ4, Phenom 100 / 300, Challenger 300 / 604 / 605 and PC-12's would just drop to something that makes sense.

I still think covid has created a persistent new normal with private aviation demand.

People who paid $5000 for first class tickets ny to fl because $25,000 was stupid are now willing (and wanting) to pay it regularly. Doesn’t take much extra demand to drive up prices for a semi-fixed resource.

This is the last year of bonus depreciation (until we get a new president in 2024, and then it'll come back - but that's a different thread.)

It's making the availability very low and the prices quite high right now. I'm getting a surprising number of blind/cold inquiries for my unlisted plane.

Nobody has offered me "stupid" money yet, but I'm still hoping there's someone out there before Dec 31.

Demand will drop on Jan 1.

Here's when it ends:

TCJA
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) allows bonus depreciation for Qualified property:

100% bonus depreciation, when placed in service between 9/28/2017 and 12/31/2022.
80%, when placed in service between 1/1/2023 and 12/31/2023.
60%, when placed in service between 1/1/2024 and 12/31/2024.
40%, when placed in service between 1/1/2025 and 12/31/2025.
20%, when placed in service between 1/1/2026 and 12/31/2026.

But then, there will be another one...

Yep, I should have been more specific - only 100% ends this year. But the way things are going in the turbine market, you'd think it drops to zero next year.

I don’t think Turbine prices are crazy at all. With million dollar Cirrus and new Bonanza prices, 1.8 million Barons and 800k 182s, a $800k used Citation is a smoking good deal. What we’re seeing here is real inflation coupled with real demand. In my experience, 99% of people are paying cash for these machines So I do not believe we’re in some sort of debt financed asset bubble.

So, I would get used to it this is the real normal just as the new real normal is six dollar milk and eggs. So if you think there’s going to be some giant crash next year, I think you’re going to be very disappointed as prices are still going to go up on nice condition Turbine machines .

Mike