I looked at some random piston models, I chose these simply because I had some experience selling them back in the day.

Twin Comanche - 2
E55 Baron - 5
Cherokee 6 - 12
Cessna 182R - 10
Cessna 182Q - 20

Those don't seem like high inventory numbers to me, am I wrong?

Plus, I assume, that just like the turbine market, many have damage history, are overpriced or have some other weakness that has caused them to linger unsold on Controller for months.

With all respect, Chip. Random single samples are not indicative of trends. Here are some trends to consider:



You started this thread in 2021. Since that time... Inventory has tripled for '36 Bonanzas, and more than doubled for Jets. So, it's obvious there's no crisis looming. I know your rebuttal will be that many of those aircraft have "issues". Any aircraft is going to have issues.

I wouldn't say I have a rebuttal, and I wouldn't say overall inventory levels are critically low right now, obviously they were when I started this thread, your chart shows that.

But, I don't see an abundance of desirable aircraft for sale in any popular turbine category.

One market we always seem to be in, is the Phenom 300 market.

Phenom 300 - 21 for sale.

Phenom 300E - 8 for sale.

That's out of a fleet of 859 aircraft!

Out of the 28 aircraft that are for sale, 13 are not based in the US.

Out of the 28 that are for sale, 11 are not on the factory ESP engine program.

Out of the 14 US based aircraft, only 8 are on ESP.

So, with the basic requirements of a US airplane, on a factory engine program, you have just 8 airplanes to choose from, and that's a price range from $7M - $14.750M!

That's less than 1% of the fleet... that is a critically low inventory number.

We haven't updated our research in a couple of weeks, so I doubt all of those 8 airplanes are even still available.

Just a glimpse into my world. It use to takes us a couple of weeks to have 3-5 great airplanes for a client to choose from... now we may search for months to find ONE.

BTW, in our 10 year history we have NEVER acquired a Phenom 300/300E that was listed for sale on Controller, every one of them we have found off market.

And once again I'm down a rabbit hole on the "GA is dying" thing. The FAA maintains sets of stats for active airmen ("one who holds both an airmen certificate and a valid medical certificate"), year over year. There are spreadsheets going back to 1999 here: https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviat ... statistics

Each sheet is just a snapshot so I manually entered the key stats for 2012 through 2024 into a Google Sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

(ETA: Table 4 in each sheet does cover trailing 10 year trends but it's easier to graph if I remove the noise)

tl;dr Student certs have gone to the moon, from 120,000 in 2012 to 345,000 at the end of 2024. Private and Commercial dipped a little but have both somewhat recovered. ATPs are steadily increasing, except for a slight dip in 2020-21 which I assume is COVID related. Instructor certs have been steadily increasing, too.

Here's something of a somewhat different vein, albeit I think related.

I have a second hanger I've rented in Western TN for around 10 years for a $150. I just got notice they are raising the rate - at the behest of the TNDOT - to $260 per month. Now, I am not particularly perturbed as I am accustomed to big city prices and even at that price, I think the hangar is still an excellent deal. Nevertheless, that is still a pretty big percentage hike and it is going on throughout TN airportds. Indeed, I suspect in high growth areas around Nashville they are seeing substantial increases. I've attached the link to the state material they provided when notifying me of the lease.
Anyhow, cut to the chase, the state notes that this initiative is largely driven by the shortage of hangers and commonality of waitlists (some quite long) across TN airports. So here is my question, is the shortage of hangers in many areas of the country really a shortage or is it merely an indication that most hangars are being leased below market rates? Presumably, if the rates were market there should not be waitlists – correct? Tying this back to the thread, if hangars are all heavily subsidized what does that say about the future of GA when the market rate for hangar could easily be more per month than the payment for the housed aircraft. Out of curiosity, does anyone know of a high demand place where hangars are easy to get because the airport charges high – presumably market – rates?

Here's the link


https://www.tn.gov/tdot/aeronautics/aer ... urces.html

Just some simple math to figure out. It varies per bank, local area and airport situation but insert best cost guess to see.

A set of wood framed 10 T hangars with taxiway. Sliding wood frame doors and no electric.
Partial floors with pads poured in center and gravel on the sides of each bay.

Would that be about 300K-350K in today's market to build minimum if you really worked to do it on the cheap? If the site needed very minimal prep and you already owned the land.

Payments per month on a mortgage for 300-350K 100% occupancy at all times.

Rental expected per bay and for 10 bays. 100% occupancy.

Insurance, taxes. Snow plowing, mowing, maintenance.

What price per month per bay covers expenses with no profit?

Remember if building T hangars with matching State grant at least in PA they want 50% local share and all construction to be fair labor wage rate with preference to underprivileged business owners lowest bidder. What would that do to the cost above?

Without any state or federal money it up to private investors with land leases if they don't own the airport.

Now figure it with Paved ramps, electric bifold doors and steel framed T hangars with electric and full floors. 600-750K?? Site drainage needed for larger non permeable surfaces.
seal coating of asphalt and remarking budget. Maintenance of doors.

Does $800 a month per bay break even? Could a rural airport fill them at that rate?
I always wonder when I do see new T hangars going up how it was done and will turn a profit?

Charlie I studied that exact scenario for a project in Florida. Building there is more expensive than Tunkhannock due to codes, permits, and wages. Even with near zero ground lease I would have needed $1500/mo for the smallest and $2000 for one that would fit a Malibu (43 ft wing span so 50ft door). It’s not just the building. You have to build a ramp, drainage, environmental study, engineering, the list goes on and on. Those who have a $500/mo hangar enjoy it while you can.

Hah, I love reading about those hangar costs in the rest of the US. I just moved in to a new construction hangar in KHWD, Hayward, CA. 50 x 50 ft box, $3000/month! And I’m happy to have it!

The problem is these federal and state funded hangar and fuel farm projects should be for profit private enterprise. At a non airline service airport through the fence development should be encouraged, just like a gas station or storage place off a highway, if the airport is not making money off the hangars and fuel farm. Even those given to them with partial or full grants.

Instead they siphon off money from funds that could be used for buying land off the runway ends to protect the approaches from development and removing obstructions. or simply providing runway and taxiway maintenance. Those items do not directly make a profit and so loans for their improvements are harder to justify. That would be appropriate use of government funds. Especially if the airport does not charge enough to even maintain the fuel farm or hangars they have. The county or municipality budget has to make up the shortfall and as their budget tightens it gets harder.

Once the approaches are blocked by obstructions or developed right off the runway end the airport is eventually doomed.
We are in a race against the development and failing!

It is all an illusion... We were led into a false sense of security after 50 years of using "Free" concrete and steel hangar infrastructure built in WWII. Then the government funded replacements were needed. Not as nice or big but asphalt and wood frame worked in a lot of cases. Now a lot of those are needing repair or replacement...

At $3000 per month, I’d be selling!

As mentioned. Part of the hangar shortage is related to structures subsidized or not that are so far below market it is ridiculous. Price out a garage to park an RV or a boat in, or a 2000 ft. Storage building on prime real estate, or any other metric.

Hangars are going for less than tiny 10X 20 storage units in some places. So people are using hangars for non-aviation uses, to store RV’s, boats, toys, grandmas furniture from 1970 etc. I own my hangar, but just the utilities, maintenance on the building, land lease, insurance, property taxes is more than many pay in some areas for a leased hangar. Try to build a hangar to modern code these days, can be looking at hundreds of thousands.

I am happy to have a hangar, but if the city takes mine for airport expansion or some other cause, will be really hard to get another one.

Hard to own a nice plane without a good hangar. A lot less fun as well.

It’s August 31, 2025 and all indications are, that at least in the turbine world, activity has increased significantly.

Bonus Depreciation. It is a great time to be investing in capital assets - not just airplanes.

Bonus Depreciation. It is a great time to be investing in capital assets - not just airplanes.