27 May 2025, 21:31 [ UTC - 5; DST ]
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 05 Apr 2025, 15:26 |
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Joined: 05/23/13 Posts: 7983 Post Likes: +10313 Company: Jet Acquisitions Location: Franklin, TN 615-739-9091 chip@jetacq.com
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Username Protected wrote: Really? Inventory has tripled for Bonanzas. I can find a great '36 for any budget and mission. Don't believe me? Send me your budget, home base, and 3 most frequent missions (location, routing, time of year and pax & cargo), and I will show you 3 very good candidate model '36 Bonanzas.
Surely with nearly 1,400 jets to choose from, you could do the same Chip? The 1400 number doesn't tell the story, when you subtract the phony ads (just called on one yesterday) and the aircraft outside US (the majority of our clients want US based aircraft) and then you subtract the ones that have damage history, known issues, or are not the types of jets we are looking for, the number gets really small. The only jet market that we offer acquisition services for that currently has ample inventory is the Citation M2 market. For instance if I asked you to give me three really good Phenom 300E's to choose from, could you do that?
Using the Phenom 300E as an example, here's how the math works.
335 Phenom 300E have been produced. 6 aircraft are currently listed for sale.
That's just 1.79% of the fleet that are for sale.
Of the SIX aircraft listed on for sale, only ONE would be acceptable to a client wishing to purchase a US based, no damage history aircraft on a factory engine program.
I doubt it is even still available, we haven't called on it because we do not currently represent a Phenom 300E client and we only call brokers, dealers or owners about availability when we do have a client.
The point is if you want a nice 300E, you're going to have to hire a hunter to find it. The only other option is to pay too much or settle for a lesser aircraft.
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 05 Apr 2025, 16:02 |
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Joined: 04/02/16 Posts: 577 Post Likes: +458
Aircraft: D55, C172
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Username Protected wrote: I don't want to be accused of just picking one popular model of aircraft, so here's what the Citation V market currently looks like.
Let's say a buyer wants a US based Citation V, with either a factory engine program or 1000 hours remaining on the engines and less than 10k total time.
17 aircraft are currently listed for sale.
Of the 17 aircraft listed on for sale, only 3 would be acceptable!
Again, of those three I have no idea if they are still available. The point is if you look at the huge number for sale and eliminate the ones that most buyers are not interested in, you'll see the real picture develop. So what do you know about 650’s Chip?
_________________ Embrace The Suck
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 05 Apr 2025, 16:08 |
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Joined: 11/08/12 Posts: 7343 Post Likes: +4824 Location: Live in San Carlos, CA - based Hayward, CA KHWD
Aircraft: Piaggio Avanti
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Username Protected wrote: Let's say a buyer wants a US based Citation V, with either a factory engine program or 1000 hours remaining on the engines and less than 10k total time. False premise. A buyer of a Citation V probably doesn’t want the factory engine program. Run engines to HSI interval, do the HSI, and keep going. This is way more economically rational than engine programs at this point in the airplane’s lifecycle. Quote: Of the 17 aircraft listed on for sale, only 3 would be acceptable! What is your definition of “acceptable”?
_________________ -Jon C.
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 05 Apr 2025, 16:10 |
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Joined: 04/02/16 Posts: 577 Post Likes: +458
Aircraft: D55, C172
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Username Protected wrote: Let's say a buyer wants a US based Citation V, with either a factory engine program or 1000 hours remaining on the engines and less than 10k total time. False premise. A buyer of a Citation V probably doesn’t want the factory engine program. Run engines to HSI interval, do the HSI, and keep going. This is way more economically rational than engine programs at this point in the airplane’s lifecycle. Quote: Of the 17 aircraft listed on for sale, only 3 would be acceptable! What is your definition of “acceptable”?
He lists his arbitrary “acceptable”criteria.
_________________ Embrace The Suck
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 05 Apr 2025, 16:12 |
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Joined: 11/08/12 Posts: 7343 Post Likes: +4824 Location: Live in San Carlos, CA - based Hayward, CA KHWD
Aircraft: Piaggio Avanti
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Username Protected wrote: He lists his arbitrary “acceptable”criteria. Oh, so you mean engine programs and <10K hours are the only things that define acceptable? Re-reading it, I see you are probably right, that could be what he meant. So I come back to - “false premise”.
_________________ -Jon C.
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 05 Apr 2025, 16:31 |
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Joined: 09/20/14 Posts: 2035 Post Likes: +1616 Location: KBJC, KMCW, KVGT
Aircraft: G36TN, Great Lakes
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Username Protected wrote: Using the Phenom 300E as an example, here's how the math works.
335 Phenom 300E have been produced. 6 aircraft are currently listed for sale.
That's just 1.79% of the fleet that are for sale.
Of the SIX aircraft listed on for sale, only ONE would be acceptable to a client wishing to purchase a US based, no damage history aircraft on a factory engine program.
I doubt it is even still available, we haven't called on it because we do not currently represent a Phenom 300E client and we only call brokers, dealers or owners about availability when we do have a client.
The point is if you want a nice 300E, you're going to have to hire a hunter to find it. The only other option is to pay too much or settle for a lesser aircraft. I'm not tracking you. I see 6 US based P300Es on Controller right now? https://www.controller.com/listings/sea ... ountry=178Regarding your policy that no damage history is a requirement. I'd argue that it depends on the nature of the damage, who did the repairs, how long ago, and how much the price is discounted. For reference, I once owned a very nice A36 that had been geared up TWICE, many years before. Was priced well when I bought it, reflecting the history. Flew great, and when I sold it I made a profit. And your policy of must be on an engine program... why? Sure, it's nice. But if there's a discount to offset the value of the engine program, I'm going to say its no different. I think you're doing your clients a disservice if you aren't considering options which could save them money and get them in an equivalent airframe with extra capital on hand for upgrades and operating expenses. But I'm burning 100LL, so WTFDIK?
_________________ Matt Beckner
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 05 Apr 2025, 16:52 |
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Joined: 05/23/13 Posts: 7983 Post Likes: +10313 Company: Jet Acquisitions Location: Franklin, TN 615-739-9091 chip@jetacq.com
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Username Protected wrote: I don't want to be accused of just picking one popular model of aircraft, so here's what the Citation V market currently looks like.
Let's say a buyer wants a US based Citation V, with either a factory engine program or 1000 hours remaining on the engines and less than 10k total time.
17 aircraft are currently listed for sale.
Of the 17 aircraft listed on for sale, only 3 would be acceptable!
Again, of those three I have no idea if they are still available. The point is if you look at the huge number for sale and eliminate the ones that most buyers are not interested in, you'll see the real picture develop. So what do you know about 650’s Chip?
Back when I sold airplanes, I sold a couple of them, but certainly no expert on that airframe or the market.
Shawn at TASC does know them really well and could easily handle an acquisition of one.
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 05 Apr 2025, 16:54 |
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Joined: 05/23/13 Posts: 7983 Post Likes: +10313 Company: Jet Acquisitions Location: Franklin, TN 615-739-9091 chip@jetacq.com
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Username Protected wrote: Let's say a buyer wants a US based Citation V, with either a factory engine program or 1000 hours remaining on the engines and less than 10k total time. False premise. A buyer of a Citation V probably doesn’t want the factory engine program. Run engines to HSI interval, do the HSI, and keep going. This is way more economically rational than engine programs at this point in the airplane’s lifecycle. Quote: Of the 17 aircraft listed on for sale, only 3 would be acceptable! What is your definition of “acceptable”?
I’m just telling you what our average Citation V client is looking for, we don’t set the criteria, the buyer gives us THEIR criteria.
I think the assertion that most buyers want engines past TBO is false, though it is certainly common on Beechtalk.
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 05 Apr 2025, 16:59 |
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Joined: 05/23/13 Posts: 7983 Post Likes: +10313 Company: Jet Acquisitions Location: Franklin, TN 615-739-9091 chip@jetacq.com
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Username Protected wrote: Using the Phenom 300E as an example, here's how the math works.
335 Phenom 300E have been produced. 6 aircraft are currently listed for sale.
That's just 1.79% of the fleet that are for sale.
Of the SIX aircraft listed on for sale, only ONE would be acceptable to a client wishing to purchase a US based, no damage history aircraft on a factory engine program.
I doubt it is even still available, we haven't called on it because we do not currently represent a Phenom 300E client and we only call brokers, dealers or owners about availability when we do have a client.
The point is if you want a nice 300E, you're going to have to hire a hunter to find it. The only other option is to pay too much or settle for a lesser aircraft. I'm not tracking you. I see 6 US based P300Es on Controller right now? https://www.controller.com/listings/sea ... ountry=178Regarding your policy that no damage history is a requirement. I'd argue that it depends on the nature of the damage, who did the repairs, how long ago, and how much the price is discounted. For reference, I once owned a very nice A36 that had been geared up TWICE, many years before. Was priced well when I bought it, reflecting the history. Flew great, and when I sold it I made a profit. And your policy of must be on an engine program... why? Sure, it's nice. But if there's a discount to offset the value of the engine program, I'm going to say its no different. I think you're doing your clients a disservice if you aren't considering options which could save them money and get them in an equivalent airframe with extra capital on hand for upgrades and operating expenses. But I'm burning 100LL, so WTFDIK?
Of the Phenom 300E’s listed, none have damage history that I am aware of, those that were eliminated were eliminated based on being located outside the US or having a third-party engine warranty.
Again, these requirements are not only common, but very consistent among our clients. It’s very important to understand that we rarely represent buyers who are novice and / or price motivated, they are typically VALUE motivated. There’s a huge difference. You will find that our average client has owned several turbine aircraft, and they are very discerning in their purchase, because they have learned from previous mistakes.
Last edited on 05 Apr 2025, 17:05, edited 1 time in total.
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 05 Apr 2025, 17:04 |
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Joined: 05/23/13 Posts: 7983 Post Likes: +10313 Company: Jet Acquisitions Location: Franklin, TN 615-739-9091 chip@jetacq.com
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If you look at the airplanes that are on Controller, you will see a trend, many of them have foreign history, damage history, high engine times, high airframe times and a host of other issues. This is primarily because if a really nice high pedigree airplane hits the market and it’s price is not above market, it typically sells very quickly.
I do have the benefit of getting to see all of the aircraft like these that sell, so I know that the majority of the airplanes that actually trade hands in any given timeframe, are typically closer to the criteria that our clients expect.
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 05 Apr 2025, 17:22 |
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Joined: 12/03/14 Posts: 20174 Post Likes: +25302 Company: Ciholas, Inc Location: KEHR
Aircraft: C560V
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Username Protected wrote: Of the 17 aircraft listed on for sale, only 3 would be acceptable! This is what happens when you pick arbitrary criteria based on random numbers instead of looking deeper to see the true value of each example. There are very few Vs on engine programs. Doesn't make sense to do that given you can operate them much cheaper off program. This is unlike Williams. The 10,000 airframe hours is a meaningless number for a V. I went through the 10,000 hour inspections and they took a day and didn't cost much. The NDT tech said they have never seen a plane fail yet and they do a large number. Nothing to fear here, folks, it is just a number. The real painful V to buy is one where it has the original 9000 cycle impeller that is coming due. It could easily be the case buying a lower time airplane results in a big expense later that the higher time airplane avoids. Low time does not always equal lower cost. Quote: The point is if you look at the huge number for sale and eliminate the ones that most buyers are not interested in, you'll see the real picture develop. That is not most buyers in actual fact, only the ones you work with influenced by your advice. Your world is not the whole world. Or to say it another way, the FUD Chip spreads about the planes that don't meet his criteria means the rest of us can buy them cheaper since he scares away potential buyers. Thanks, Chip! The best deal out there will be a V nearing OH and near or just over 10,000 hours. Do HSI to get another 1800 hours and the 10,000 hour inspections are no big deal. That describes my situation perfectly. I'm past the 10,000 inspections and my HSI is probably happening around 2027. I have 2000 hours until the next HSI, 15-20 years of my use. This is the cheapest way to fly a jet that I know of which is primarily due to low capital cost. Mike C.
_________________ Email mikec (at) ciholas.com
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 05 Apr 2025, 17:25 |
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Joined: 09/20/14 Posts: 2035 Post Likes: +1616 Location: KBJC, KMCW, KVGT
Aircraft: G36TN, Great Lakes
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The more you share about your business service criteria, the less I like it. You're really doing a disservice to your clients. Aircraft with high time engines can be had for a steep discount, allowing the owner to buy them on the cheap, put in fresh engines and have peace of mind, warranty, enroll in the engine program of their choice, and fly it for decades most likely with zero issues - all at less than the price of the unicorn you're seeking. And what is wrong with a 3rd party engine program? Is JSSI not ok? Foreign operations aren't necessarily bad. If it was operated by NetJets in Europe, I'd buy it no qualms. You're oversimplifying the search and wasting your clients' capital. But it is their money so 
_________________ Matt Beckner
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 05 Apr 2025, 17:47 |
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Joined: 05/23/13 Posts: 7983 Post Likes: +10313 Company: Jet Acquisitions Location: Franklin, TN 615-739-9091 chip@jetacq.com
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Username Protected wrote: Of the 17 aircraft listed on for sale, only 3 would be acceptable! This is what happens when you pick arbitrary criteria based on random numbers instead of looking deeper to see the true value of each example. There are very few Vs on engine programs. Doesn't make sense to do that given you can operate them much cheaper off program. This is unlike Williams. The 10,000 airframe hours is a meaningless number for a V. I went through the 10,000 hour inspections and they took a day and didn't cost much. The NDT tech said they have never seen a plane fail yet and they do a large number. Nothing to fear here, folks, it is just a number. The real painful V to buy is one where it has the original 9000 cycle impeller that is coming due. It could easily be the case buying a lower time airplane results in a big expense later that the higher time airplane avoids. Low time does not always equal lower cost. Quote: The point is if you look at the huge number for sale and eliminate the ones that most buyers are not interested in, you'll see the real picture develop. That is not most buyers in actual fact, only the ones you work with influenced by your advice. Your world is not the whole world. Or to say it another way, the FUD Chip spreads about the planes that don't meet his criteria means the rest of us can buy them cheaper since he scares away potential buyers. Thanks, Chip! The best deal out there will be a V nearing OH and near or just over 10,000 hours. Do HSI to get another 1800 hours and the 10,000 hour inspections are no big deal. That describes my situation perfectly. I'm past the 10,000 inspections and my HSI is probably happening around 2027. I have 2000 hours until the next HSI, 15-20 years of my use. This is the cheapest way to fly a jet that I know of which is primarily due to low capital cost. Mike C.
You sure are creating a lot of work for me… and on a Saturday no less.
I told you not to go hunting with a professional hunter.
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