07 Jan 2026, 02:41 [ UTC - 5; DST ]
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Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50 Posted: 28 Jan 2016, 20:43 |
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Joined: 11/08/12 Posts: 7822 Post Likes: +5164 Location: Live in San Carlos, CA - based Hayward, CA KHWD
Aircraft: Piaggio Avanti
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Username Protected wrote: Perusing BT and firing off a quick post here and there while scoffing down a sandwich at lunch is different from the velocity of message you and others post. Apparently you need to learn to type faster. 
_________________ -Jon C.
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Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50 Posted: 28 Jan 2016, 20:52 |
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Joined: 12/03/14 Posts: 21004 Post Likes: +26481 Company: Ciholas, Inc Location: KEHR
Aircraft: C560V
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Username Protected wrote: Isn't this the sunk cost fallacy? Isn't it instead true that Williams would price an already developed engine wherever they would make the most money back? Not to put too fine a point on it, the FJ33-5A isn't actually fully developed yet, not yet certified. Only the -4 variant is certified presently. I'm certain Williams is investing quite a lot into making the FJ33 work, especially since 1900 lbf is well over the -4 output presently. Notably, the FJ44 starts at 1900 lbf, so the little engine is being pushed pretty hard to make it do what the bigger one does. Quote: If amortizing all of their sunk costs into the engine pricing loses the design win customer, then they will be even worse off. It wouldn't surprise me if Williams were working hard to keep that design win. No other jet engine maker wants to be on a single. PWC forbids it for the PW600 series. There really are no other players. Williams will be on SF50, no matter what. Quote: [on PW610F]Have all their development costs been paid back? 540 engines is only 270 engine pairs. Yes, but the PW600 family includes the PW615F (Mustang, over 1100 engines) and PW617F (Phenom 100, over 500 engines). When looking at the whole family, PWC made its dev money back on the PW600 series, having sold well over 2000 engines in total. Quote: Do you think the FJ33 engine was designed only for Cirrus, or did Cirrus competitively shop for a supplier that was willing to help them become an engine customer? I think Williams was the only choice given it was an SEJ. PWC did not want to play. The FJ33 existed prior to the SF50, though not the -5 variant. The list of planes to which it was supposed to be used on reads like a list of aircraft startup failures. Adam A700 ATG Javelin Cirrus Vision SF50 Diamond D-Jet Epic Elite Flaris LAR01 Spectrum S-33 Independence Sport Jet II Mike C.
_________________ Email mikec (at) ciholas.com
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Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50 Posted: 28 Jan 2016, 21:25 |
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Joined: 09/21/13 Posts: 33 Post Likes: +8
Aircraft: Barron 55
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GE Honda is known to have had discussions with Cirrus, and have publically said they are interested in making a single engine version of the HF120. Your "nobody but Williams is interested..." is per usual a very broad statement without much supporting evidence.
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Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50 Posted: 28 Jan 2016, 21:46 |
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Joined: 11/06/10 Posts: 12201 Post Likes: +3086 Company: Looking Location: Outside Boston, or some hotel somewhere
Aircraft: None
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Username Protected wrote: GE Honda is known to have had discussions with Cirrus, and have publically said they are interested in making a single engine version of the HF120. Your "nobody but Williams is interested..." is per usual a very broad statement without much supporting evidence. I find it also interesting that Mike C. speaks for PWC.  Tim 
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Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50 Posted: 28 Jan 2016, 23:46 |
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Joined: 11/07/11 Posts: 875 Post Likes: +489 Location: KBED, KCRE
Aircraft: Phenom 100
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Quote: No other jet engine maker wants to be on a single. My airplane has a single PWC engine. So does the Caravan, Kodiak, TBM and Pilatus. 
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Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50 Posted: 29 Jan 2016, 00:01 |
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Joined: 12/03/14 Posts: 21004 Post Likes: +26481 Company: Ciholas, Inc Location: KEHR
Aircraft: C560V
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Username Protected wrote: My airplane has a single PWC engine. Not a jet. Mike C.
_________________ Email mikec (at) ciholas.com
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Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50 Posted: 29 Jan 2016, 07:51 |
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Joined: 12/17/10 Posts: 1626 Post Likes: +276 Location: Valparaiso, IN
Aircraft: Lancair Evolution
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Username Protected wrote: Mike,
Your statements and assumptions are made as absolutes. THAT is what is funny.
You have so many assumptions; let's demolish a few to start. 1. Williams already paid for the development. What makes you think Cirrus will be the ONLY customer? 2. There are many charter companies flying Cirrus SR22 now. Why do you think they suddenly need two engines? Further, there are many charter companies flying SETP. Why will they suddenly need two turbines? 3. The whole liability aspect is unknown. Pilot error kills more then the engines, and with a 67 KIAS stall speed, the SF50 is a lot slower then other jets. Speed kills, especially when you think about stall/spin accidents. If you have a stall speed of 67 KIAS and do a 30% bank, what does the stall speed become? If you have a stall speed of 100 KIAS, what does the stall speed become? 4. The additional certification costs are unknown. It may not be that much, it may be a lot. You are making a lot of assumptions about the cost and complexity here.
Tim Bingo. Also, wouldn't building a plane to fly at RVSM altitudes vs anything FL280 or lower cost quite a bit more to build per unit? You need a lot more structure to go as high as most jets which would add weight and cost, wouldn't it?
Last edited on 29 Jan 2016, 08:05, edited 1 time in total.
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Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50 Posted: 29 Jan 2016, 08:01 |
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Joined: 12/17/10 Posts: 1626 Post Likes: +276 Location: Valparaiso, IN
Aircraft: Lancair Evolution
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Username Protected wrote: Eclipse was building a single jet til the economy tanked. And selling it for the same price as the SF50! Most owners got theirs for around $1.4M. That killed Eclipse. The faster they made them, the more money they lost. Almost all of the SF50 depositors are at the $1.4M price point, too, at least into the high 300s delivery position as advertised on controller.com. Remains to be seen if Cirrus can survive that. There is likely zero profit, perhaps a loss, on each SF-50 at that price, hence the price today of over $2M. Cirrus can build a twin cheaper than Eclipse can build a twin. Cirrus at least knows airframe manufacturing, and Eclipse didn't have a clue about that. Also, vendors will extend better terms to an established player than a startup. Cirrus can probably buy PW610Fs for much less than Eclipse paid. The engine vendors make so much money on the engine programs and maintenance after the sale that they can sell engines at cost to OEMs. That's long term revenue that is far more stable than new aircraft sales. Mike C. You can argue all you want about why you don't think it will work and why this is a bad idea, but one thing I can guarantee you is that Cirrus has a research team that determined this was potentially a good idea otherwise it wouldn't have happened. I don't think they are in the business of "welp, this would be fun to try..."
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Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50 Posted: 29 Jan 2016, 08:04 |
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Joined: 12/17/10 Posts: 1626 Post Likes: +276 Location: Valparaiso, IN
Aircraft: Lancair Evolution
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Username Protected wrote: My airplane has a single PWC engine. Not a jet. Mike C. What difference does it make if it's a jet or a turboprop?
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Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50 Posted: 29 Jan 2016, 08:23 |
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Joined: 01/29/08 Posts: 26338 Post Likes: +13087 Location: Walterboro, SC. KRBW
Aircraft: PC12NG
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Username Protected wrote: Most owners got theirs for around $1.4M. Mike C.
They never got built. The economy tanked. Lot's of companies went under. You can't blame this on the design. Their 2 engine design went under also.
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Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50 Posted: 29 Jan 2016, 09:35 |
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Joined: 11/06/10 Posts: 12201 Post Likes: +3086 Company: Looking Location: Outside Boston, or some hotel somewhere
Aircraft: None
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Username Protected wrote: Potential for aditional problems maybe? Like prop overspeed? Or does that not happen on TPs? No idea, just guessing From what I have read and discussed with a few engineers (a couple of them actual rocket scientist and engine designers) here are the major differences between a turbofan and a turboprop. - Altitude the hot section is optimized to attain. Due to material science, the higher the altitude (lower air pressure and especially lower temp), the higher the compression can be attained and greater power/efficiency can be attained.
- How much margin the hot section has for maximum power at lower altitudes (the higher the margin, the lower the general efficiency)
- Location of the gearing. On the outside of the fan or in the center.
- Shroud for the fan
- A turbofan almost always has the hot section exhausting with the flow of the thrust creating additional power
- A turbofan almost always is only axial compression in series, while most turboprops are a mix of axial and centrifugal. (I may have these two methods reversed)
- Turboprops will sometimes do flow redirection (e.g. S curve on the garret engines) which almost unheard of in Turbofans.
For example: http://www.pbsvb.com/customer-industrie ... jet-enginehttp://www.pbsvb.com/customer-industrie ... rop-engineUse the exact same hot section. The difference is the shroud, location of the prop/fan drive.... Note: I did not say jet, no one makes jet engines anymore. Pure jet engines are just too inefficient. Tim
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Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50 Posted: 29 Jan 2016, 12:28 |
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Joined: 12/03/14 Posts: 21004 Post Likes: +26481 Company: Ciholas, Inc Location: KEHR
Aircraft: C560V
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Username Protected wrote: They never got built. My bad, I was talking about the EA500s and failed to notice you were discussing the EA400, the aborted single engine demo aircraft. My point was that EA500s were sold at the same price point initially as the SF50 is, around $1.4M. Mike C.
_________________ Email mikec (at) ciholas.com
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Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50 Posted: 29 Jan 2016, 12:36 |
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Joined: 11/06/10 Posts: 12201 Post Likes: +3086 Company: Looking Location: Outside Boston, or some hotel somewhere
Aircraft: None
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Username Protected wrote: They never got built. My bad, I was talking about the EA500s and failed to notice you were discussing the EA400, the aborted single engine demo aircraft. My point was that EA500s were sold at the same price point initially as the SF50 is, around $1.4M. Mike C.
Not as bad as you think. I tried a couple of inflation calculators, from Jan 2006 to Dec 2015, the amount of cumulative inflation was between 18 and 20%. I thin the variance was caused by source/method to calculate inflation. And I did not bother to read the fine print. 
So a 20% inflation rate over 10 years is going to give a final price about $1.67 Million. So that removes about a 1/3 of the price gap between current list and initial sale price.
Tim
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