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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2016, 18:24 
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Yup, that's what I figure new sales will dry up quickly with deals on low time SF50's.

Cirrus would have to do rapid, significant, improvements to make buying new vs. used a compelling proposition.


And Cirrus has done so in the Piston space, why do you think their business model has changed?

Tim


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2016, 18:40 
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They are building what the customer THINKS they want. They want a jet with the proportionate advantages a single engine piston has over a twin piston.

But that isn't what they are going to get.


No, they want an AIRPLANE with proportional advantages over SR22 they are flying now.

Take your average Currus pilot with a ton of money and 300-400 hrs total time, flying 50 hrs a year, all in SR22. He's never flown a twin or a retractable. He doesn't even know how to manage a constant-speed prop. Now show him a twin jet that goes 400 KTS at FL410, with all kinds of weird things in the cockpit he never heard off. He's gonna think "damn, this thing is complicated. That's much more airplane than I want to get into".

Now show him SF50 which flies just 50% faster than his SR22, goes a little higher, carries a bit more, all in pressurized comfort. He's going to think "hmmm, I can deal with that". That's your market right there.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2016, 19:09 
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Username Protected wrote:
Now show him SF50 which flies just 50% faster than his SR22, goes a little higher, carries a bit more, all in pressurized comfort. He's going to think "hmmm, I can deal with that". That's your market right there.

Sounds like a good theory, but that guy is going to have to train to ATP standards, get a type rating, go to recurrent every year, and manage a 300 kt airplane in the flight levels. It ain't the same as an SR22, even with only one engine.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2016, 19:21 
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Username Protected wrote:
Now show him SF50 which flies just 50% faster than his SR22, goes a little higher, carries a bit more, all in pressurized comfort. He's going to think "hmmm, I can deal with that". That's your market right there.

Sounds like a good theory, but that guy is going to have to train to ATP standards, get a type rating, go to recurrent every year, and manage a 300 kt airplane in the flight levels. It ain't the same as an SR22, even with only one engine.


Existing Cirrus training is to the ATP standards. Annual training was standard practice among every Cirrus owner I know. So it just adds some speed, pressurization, and routing complexities. My Aerostar was a 250 KTAS plane the way I flew it, and it was a lot faster in the pattern then some of the information posted about SF50. It was not much of jump for me, I do not think it would be much for most of the Cirrus pilots.

Tim

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2016, 19:29 
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Sounds like a good theory, but that guy is going to have to train to ATP standards, get a type rating, go to recurrent every year, and manage a 300 kt airplane in the flight levels. It ain't the same as an SR22, even with only one engine.


Whatever Cirrus is doing in regards to training and safety should be adopted by the rest of the GA piston fleet.

They deserve credit and I wouldn't doubt their ability to transition their pilots.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2016, 19:43 
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With the amount of entrepreneurs on this site I am somewhat in awe of the resistance to change. I mentioned pages ago that these were most likely the same comments made when Cirrus first entered the piston aircraft market...

Lets combine some of the forward thinking comments and see if Cirrus is on to something.

* regardless of the final price point this jet appears to be within reach of its target market - those who only buy new, and Cirrus owner looking to move up.

* this jet will fit into just about any hangar, no need to double or triple the fixed cost side of the equation.

* lots of pilots will have little trouble making the transition if they are already flying the Cirrus product line and Cirrus executes the transition training with the excellence that their current owners have come to expect.

I completely understand all of the rhetoric about legacy aircraft being less expensive, higher certified ceilings, single versus twin configurations.... Perhaps Cirrus jet owners will use this as a stepping stone or perhaps Cirrus will just keep making the product better G1, G2, G3, G4, G5

Anything new in GA should be applauded IMHO. The next several years should be very entertaining as this jet comes to market.

Peace,
Don


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2016, 19:46 
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Whatever Cirrus is doing in regards to training and safety should be adopted by the rest of the GA piston fleet.

They deserve credit and I wouldn't doubt their ability to transition their pilots.

Agreed.

But the case was being made that the SF50 would be significantly simpler than a twin jet. I would suggest that it's basically the same level of complexity, and to assume it's less is a recipe for trouble, and a recipe for a customer whose expectations are different than the reality they will encounter.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2016, 20:00 
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Username Protected wrote:
But the case was being made that the SF50 would be significantly simpler than a twin jet. I would suggest that it's basically the same level of complexity, and to assume it's less is a recipe for trouble, and a recipe for a customer whose expectations are different than the reality they will encounter.


It will be simpler not because it's a single, but because it flies lower and slower than your typical jet. SR22T can go up to 25,000 ft and will do 213 kts there, with stall speed 60 kts. SF50 will go to 28,000 ft and 300 kts, with 67 kts stall. It's just a small incremental change. Add Cirrus commitment to making things easy to use (they are the guys who got rid of a prop control after all), and it should indeed be a very easy transition.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2016, 20:14 
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It will be simpler not because it's a single, but because it flies lower and slower than your typical jet. SR22T can go up to 25,000 ft and will do 213 kts there, with stall speed 60 kts. SF50 will go to 28,000 ft and 300 kts, with 67 kts stall. It's just a small incremental change.

Which subject will you not need to train for? Pressurization (high altitude sign off required), and all its attendant failures? Speed? Deice/anti-ice? Weather decision making? Systems, like landing gear, pressurization, engine, avionics/autopilot, environmental, electrical? These are all systems that the airplane will have, so do you think the training will be significantly less than any other airplane operating in that environment with those systems?

Slow relative to its peers doesn't mean it really changes the complexity of training that will be required. All the topics are basically still the same.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2016, 20:44 
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With the amount of entrepreneurs on this site I am somewhat in awe of the resistance to change.

There are a LOT of different types of entrepreneurs.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2016, 20:55 
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Anyone who thinks flying a jet is just like (or only a bit more) than flying a piston single just because the Jet's max speed and altitude are just a bit more than a piston single has never flown a jet before...period.

That may well be the market Cirrus is going for, but I don't believe that for a second. Yes, the Cirrus jet may be one of the simplest jets ever to operate from a switchology perspective and it appears it will have a very forgiving wing from an aerodynamic perspective (much like the slowtation wing) but a step up to the jet world is a HUGE step up no matter what the speeds and altitudes are and will require a different level of performance from the pilot.

As far as the statement that Cirrus already trains to ATP standards, I find that very hard to believe. Very few low time pilots are able to fly and maintain heading, speed and altitude to ATP standards. Not that they are bad pilots...it takes experience and feel much like a new driver (anyone have teenagers) tends to overcorrect and not drive smoothly. I find it hard to believe that Cirrus would not sign off the people getting trained in the SR-20/22 unless they flew a checkride to ATP standards...


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2016, 21:11 
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Username Protected wrote:
Anyone who thinks flying a jet is just like (or only a bit more) than flying a piston single just because the Jet's max speed and altitude are just a bit more than a piston single has never flown a jet before...period.

That may well be the market Cirrus is going for, but I don't believe that for a second. Yes, the Cirrus jet may be one of the simplest jets ever to operate from a switchology perspective and it appears it will have a very forgiving wing from an aerodynamic perspective (much like the slowtation wing) but a step up to the jet world is a HUGE step up no matter what the speeds and altitudes are and will require a different level of performance from the pilot.


Well, Cirrus's entire marketing pitch is about how simple this plane is to fly. It may or may not be true, they pitch it this way because they know that's where the market is.

The bolded parts above are important, too.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2016, 21:30 
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Username Protected wrote:
Anyone who thinks flying a jet is just like (or only a bit more) than flying a piston single just because the Jet's max speed and altitude are just a bit more than a piston single has never flown a jet before...period.

That may well be the market Cirrus is going for, but I don't believe that for a second. Yes, the Cirrus jet may be one of the simplest jets ever to operate from a switchology perspective and it appears it will have a very forgiving wing from an aerodynamic perspective (much like the slowtation wing) but a step up to the jet world is a HUGE step up no matter what the speeds and altitudes are and will require a different level of performance from the pilot.


Well, Cirrus's entire marketing pitch is about how simple this plane is to fly. It may or may not be true, they pitch it this way because they know that's where the market is.

The bolded parts above are important, too.


And more importantly it has a chute so the price of failure is much less painful.
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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2016, 21:34 
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The government steps in and determines that the SF50 is a great way to train pilots and purchases a lot of 300 with option for a follow on buy for an additional 300 over a 10 year contract and the civilian gets cut out of the picture. Cirrus sells the piston business to Textron who always thought airplanes should be made from aluminum; tools up for the transition and orphans all previous SR series. :whiteflag:


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2016, 21:45 
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The government steps in and determines that the SF50 is a great way to train pilots and purchases a lot of 300 with option for a follow on buy for an additional 300 over a 10 year contract and the civilian gets cut out of the picture. Cirrus sells the piston business to Textron who always thought airplanes should be made from aluminum; tools up for the transition and orphans all previous SR series. :whiteflag:


US Government or Chinese Government?

I do wonder if the Chinese bought Cirrus because they want a lot of SF50s to create a transportation system in China, which they need.

I do not believe that all the Chinese investments in aerospace are because they think the US market is going to make them lots of money. I believe China realizes that General Aviation is needed to get economic mobility around their large country as it continues to develop. They intend to bring their aerospace investments back to China when the time is right.

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