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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 20 Dec 2015, 12:31 
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Will they sell well? Yes.

Will they rain from the sky? Yes.

TBM900 all day long, thank you. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 20 Dec 2015, 12:31 
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Joined: 11/08/12
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Username Protected wrote:
Not following.

What is the price of a new TBM then?

Dunno, I haven't written a check for one. I see $3.7M in a magazine.

But the SF50 is currently still made of "unobtanium". So it is kind of moot until you can actually walk away with one. Putting a deposit down on a brochure doesn't count.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 20 Dec 2015, 12:32 
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Username Protected wrote:
.

Dreams are funny things. They crash when they hit reality.

Mike C.


Hey that's a good one - you should put it in your signature !

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 20 Dec 2015, 12:32 
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Joined: 01/29/08
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Location: Walterboro, SC. KRBW
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Username Protected wrote:
Dunno, I haven't written a check for one. I see $3.7M in a magazine.

But the SF50 is currently still made of "unobtanium". So it is kind of moot until you can actually walk away with one. Putting a deposit down on a brochure doesn't count.

I agree. We don't know.

I had dinner with a guy that has a few under contract and he's saying $2.2MM. No he hasn't taken delivery yet.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 20 Dec 2015, 12:32 
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Joined: 12/03/14
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Company: Ciholas, Inc
Location: KEHR
Aircraft: C560V
Username Protected wrote:
How much faster is a 400 knot jet flying ATL to TEB going to be over a 300 knot jet? You're not getting to FL400 anyways.

FL430:

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/FWK9 ... K/tracklog

FL450:

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/XOJ7 ... L/tracklog

FL400:

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/DPJ2 ... L/tracklog

Quote:
It's a silly thing to keep saying.

Truth is never silly.

BTW, no Cirrus on that route that I could find. This isn't what SR22 pilots are flying.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 20 Dec 2015, 12:35 
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Username Protected wrote:
BTW, no Cirrus on that route that I could find. This isn't what SR22 pilots are flying.

Mike C.

That's TEB --->> ATL. Not the same thing as PDK --->> TEB

Try again.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 20 Dec 2015, 12:38 
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Username Protected wrote:
I fly a high performance piston and my average trip is between 300-500nm

The jet will save you tiny minutes of time while burning WAY more fuel on short flights.

Your average trip length is because you fly a slow airplane. Once you fly a faster one, you can go more places. Double the range opens up FOUR times the possible destinations.

You don't buy a jet to replace your piston mission profile, you buy a jet to INCREASE your mission profile.

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I will be in market for SF50, zero turbine time

Perfect customer. Doesn't really know what it means to fly turbine, doesn't know what they are getting into.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 20 Dec 2015, 12:39 
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Here's a Citation X PDK--->TEB

Last 30 minutes of the flight below 20K'.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/EJA9 ... B/tracklog


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 20 Dec 2015, 12:40 
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Perfect customer. Doesn't really know what it means to fly turbine, doesn't know what they are getting into.

Mike C.

LOL. Yeah, it's really hard. That's why it's such a high paying job.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 20 Dec 2015, 12:49 
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Cirrus is a proven company using (best I can tell) proven technology

Engine has not yet been used on any production aircraft. Not yet certified in the variant Cirrus is using. The PW600 series is in use by THREE airframe builders (Eclipse, Cessna, Embraer), Cirrus will be the only FJ33 user.

Cirrus is exploring an entirely new regulatory category, the single engine jet. While not "technology", it is a substantial regulatory risk tied to that.

Cirrus CAPS is being used on the fastest, heaviest airplane ever. Significant risks here.

No certified V tail jet exists that I know of. They have already redesigned the tail a few times, now really an X tail, so things must not be so obvious back there.

Quote:
All Cirrus has to do to succeed is get people to buy it.

Eclipse didn't have trouble selling it. In fact, they "sold" more of them by a long shot over Cirrus.

Sales is not success. Staying in business making a profit is success.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 20 Dec 2015, 12:53 
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Username Protected wrote:
Is Cirrus not successful?

At making a high performance piston single.

Not yet at making a low performance crippled jet.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 20 Dec 2015, 12:55 
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Username Protected wrote:
Not the same thing as PDK --->> TEB

Try again.

I did, I search that route, too.

SR22s are not used for those sorts of trips in any number.

I found only *1* SR22 departure from TEB in the last 4 days.

This theory that SR22 pilots are major metro hoppers like they own a jet is just false.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 20 Dec 2015, 13:01 
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Joined: 09/02/09
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Aircraft: UMF3, UBF 2, P180 II
Username Protected wrote:
Eclipse didn't have trouble selling it. In fact, they "sold" more of them by a long shot over Cirrus.

Sales is not success. Staying in business making a profit is success.

Mike C.


Eclipse "sold" 260 500 series jets. They've "sold" a small handful of 550's. Not exactly a barn burner success story. Cirrus hasn't "sold" any SF50's yet because its not yet certified. However, there are over 500 position holders and so its unlikely that they won't eclipse the Eclipse sales record rather quickly (sorry, couldn't resist…).

"Staying in business making a profit is success". Of course, I agree. The original Eclipse company didn't do that. It's unclear if the successor company will. Eventually they are going to have to sell a few new airplanes or give up and just be like Aerostar aircraft, a manufacturer who doesn't make airplanes. Doing things like telling owners of 1.5/1.7 series Avio planes that it is getting difficult to support their less than 10 year old planes and trying to hold them up for $349,000 (compared to about 2% of that cost for a Cessna Mustang) for an ADSB upgrade isn't going to keep them in business…

I wouldn't hold Eclipse up as any sort of business success story at this point.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 20 Dec 2015, 13:08 
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Username Protected wrote:

Not yet at making a low performance crippled jet.

Mike C.


Thank goodness there are still entrepreneurial companies in the world dedicated to making new and improved POS products! Otherwise we'd all have to fly the zenith of aviation products designed 50 years ago...


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 20 Dec 2015, 13:09 
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Joined: 12/03/14
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Company: Ciholas, Inc
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Username Protected wrote:
Eclipse "sold" 260 500 series jets.

No, they "sold" 2700 according to their figures.

They delivered 260.

Big difference.

Quote:
They've "sold" a small handful of 550's. Not exactly a barn burner success story.

Right. And only 2 of them are truly "new" 550s and not old WIP completed.

Quote:
Cirrus hasn't "sold" any SF50's yet because its not yet certified.

They haven't delivered any, but a claimed 500 people have "bought" one with a deposit that obligates them to complete the sale.

Quote:
Doing things like telling owners of 1.5/1.7 series Avio planes that it is getting difficult to support their less than 10 year old planes and trying to hold them up for $349,000 (compared to about 2% of that cost for a Cessna Mustang) for an ADSB upgrade isn't going to keep them in business…

No doubt. The aircraft was always better than the company behind it (either one), but it is a package deal. Eclipse Aerospace has only one reliable revenue source, and that is milking current owners, which eventually leads to their demise as no one else wants to get into an abusive relationship voluntarily.

Quote:
I wouldn't hold Eclipse up as any sort of business success story at this point.

Quite the opposite, a case where the dream hit reality. The sub $1M personal jet was a fantasy.

Mike C.

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