Give it a rest.

Jason will never accept a bet with precise criteria, actual hard numbers, all his bets are where he can win by redefining the terms, such as "successful", or he leaves out specifics such as what time frame is involved. As an added bonus, he will claim the other party backed out when he fails to provide specifics.

Cirrus has published a delivery schedule. Someone who bets they will make that schedule is being taken advantage of, so we shouldn't do it regardless. That's just not playing fair.

Mike C.

I'll clear things out at the OK Corral.

This is simple, precise, and near term:

Cirrus claims 95 SF50s will be delivered to customers by end of 2016.

Let's set the line at 50 deliveries, or about half of their forecast.

If Cirrus delivers 0 to 49 SF50s to customers by 12/31/2016, I win.

If Cirrus delivers 50 or more SF50s to customers by 12/31/2016, you win.

A delivery date is counted when the airplane is registered to someone other than Cirrus per the FAA registry. This is using the "certificate date", not the "airworthiness date", we only track actual deliveries. We will make a best effort to account for foreign deliveries, if any, by observing serial number gaps assuming serial numbers will be issued serially.

Loser refrains from posting on BT from 3/1/2017 to 12/31/2017, 10 months of silence. This allows two months for the FAA registry to catch up to deliveries at the end of 2016. A bet without consequences is no bet at all.

Basically, do you feel Cirrus will be about half as successful as they think they will be by the end of 2016?

I don't.

Mike C.

Interesting.

BTW, where did the 95 by end of '16 come from? Is that their current forecast?

This is simple, precise, and near term:

Cirrus claims 95 SF50s will be delivered to customers by end of 2016.

Let's set the line at 50 deliveries, or about half of their forecast.

If Cirrus delivers 0 to 49 SF50s to customers by 12/31/2016, I win.

If Cirrus delivers 50 or more SF50s to customers by 12/31/2016, you win.

A delivery date is counted when the airplane is registered to someone other than Cirrus per the FAA registry. This is using the "certificate date", not the "airworthiness date", we only track actual deliveries. We will make a best effort to account for foreign deliveries, if any, by observing serial number gaps assuming serial numbers will be issued serially.

Loser refrains from posting on BT from 3/1/2017 to 12/31/2017, 10 months of silence. This allows two months for the FAA registry to catch up to deliveries at the end of 2016. A bet without consequences is no bet at all.

Basically, do you feel Cirrus will be about half as successful as they think they will be by the end of 2016?

I don't.

Mike C.

From an email I received from Cirrus on 12/10/2014, thus VERY recent (less than 5 months ago and within 1 year of first deliveries) and not some old schedule:

The production numbers are based on realistic assessments that combine market demand/backlog as well as manufacturing capability. ... The following table outlines the first two years of production.

Mike C.

That's not true, of course. Delays in certification trace back to inexperience, errors, mistakes at the manufacturer. Boeing and Cessna don't seem to experience these arbitrary delays you imply the FAA creates.

Further, a delay in certification doesn't change production capacity, it would only delay early deliveries.

Take the bet or not. No weaseling.

Mike C.

anyone working the side betting action here.

I'll be in for a dime on Cirrus less than 50 units.

I think 25-50 units myself. Certification will be interesting if they can get it done by the end of the year. Yes, that's Cirrus getting it done, not the FAA getting it done. Mike is correct regarding certification delay responsibilities.

There's guys that can get a certificate up and going and there's guys that blame it on the FAA for the delays. First guy wins out everytime. The FAA is somewhat of the house advantage and has to be dealt with as a known issue, whether it's aircraft or 135/121 certification.

OK.

I'll take the Cirrus SF50 at 50-units-or-more-by-end-of-2016 side of this, but if I lose I will NOT leave BeechTalk for some number of months. THAT is too harsh of a consequence for losing.

That's like asking me to hold my breath for 2 hours, or to not go to the airport for a month, or some other terrible penalty.... ......just no way I could comply.

But, if I lose, I would meet the winner somewhere and buy dinner for him/her and several other BeechTalk friends who may be in the neighborhood!

Personally, I wouldn't bet on anything aviation. One thing's for sure, nothing's for sure. Too many variables of which I have no control over, first and foremost the joker card/FAA.

OK.

I'll take the Cirrus SF50 at 50-units-or-more-by-end-of-2016 side of this, but if I lose I will NOT leave BeechTalk for some number of months. THAT is too harsh of a consequence for losing.

That's like asking me to hold my breath for 2 hours, or to not go to the airport for a month, or some other terrible penalty.... ......just no way I could comply.

But, if I lose, I would meet the winner somewhere and buy dinner for him/her and several other BeechTalk friends who may be in the neighborhood!

I'm in for a dime Michael. 50 or more before 12/31/16, as reported by 3/1/17.

YES!

Hey everyone! Florida dinner fly-in: March 2017, location TBD. (I hope we can remember when the time comes...)