Gerald's business career differs from mine only in that we serve different industries. He provides rental space for aircraft owners. I provide rental space for business owners. Gerald has and is watching an entire market for his properties steadily diminish; i.e. GA piston aircraft. That is not to say that other segments of that market, turbo props and jets, have not increased.

I have "been here" as the type of the people and businesses that rented my buildings over the last 45 years has changed: dramatically. The mom & pop retailers are gone. The small chain department stores, 5 & dime stores, shoe stores, men's shops, jewelers, owner run drug stores, gone-gone-gone-gone. Consumer "financial" institutions, think check cashing fronts, proliferate, consumer credit of all kinds, nail shops, hair shops, dance studios, have taken the place of all small retailers.

I now turn down 9 out of 10 requests I get for rental spaces. Why? Because the new "mom & pops" don't understand that what they "want" and what the consumer "needs" are two completely different things. The worst case scenario for a landlord is a broke tenant.

I am going to order four new belts from Amazon this morning. There is not one place to buy a decent men's belt in this community today other than Walmart. I did say "decent". We are just now really entering the world of on line retailing. The "best" or "worse", depending on your perspective, is yet to come.

Chip and Gerald both know the market from their perspectives. I have no problem finding the line between them, others seem to. Gerald's GA world is slowly ebbing away. Chip's GA world is expanding.

Ignore either at your peril.

Jg

It's beside your point, but I disagree with this statement. Remember a chart bag? Remember chumming charts and keeping up to date pubs? Remember 1-800-WX-BRIEF? Remember onboard radar being a thing only Jets had? Remember your only resource for talking aviation shop being the dudes hanging around the FBO?

Safe flying and IFR operations have never been easier for those technically inclined enough to open an app and/or visit one of the multitude of training services available for next to nothing.

Preaching to the choir here (and ignoring Tom Turner's 'unreachables'), but IMO it has never been easier to be a safe and compliant aviator in this country.

This conversation is missing all of the experimental aircraft that are getting produced. The top example is vans aircraft which is producing at least 50 kits a month. There are also many light sport companies and sport plane companies producing a significant number of aircraft. Equally, Robinson helicopter is selling as many helicopters as they can make.

I believe general aviation is it going to be just fine. There will always be a market for nice light twins. I was showing my old Baron to a friend that has a new Cirrus And he was very intrigued with it as was his wife. When I told him you could buy five barons for the cost of his Cirrus he got really interested in it!

GA is actually three different groups of aircraft.

First or the bottom is the “home built” planes. That group is growing and will continue to expand along with the “LSA’s” as an affordable way to fly.

Second or the top group is the “Turbine’s” which is Chip’s world. This part of GA will also continue to grow and do well in the future.

The Third group or the middle is the legacy piston planes. This group is the largest of the three and the one with the most problems. This group will get smaller with time and be replaced by the other two groups.
This will happen because of, The supply and cost of fuel,
Affordability for the average owner ,Parts supply and number of good repair facilities, Aging pilots and aging aircraft .

GA will still be here but it will be smaller and different without the large middle class (legacy piston planes) that we currently have.

2021 Shipments from GAMA - 1245 SEP. Textron shipped 254 SEP; Cirrus 442. Report attached.
2020 SEP shipments were 1164.

https://gama.aero/facts-and-statistics/ ... -billings/

1200 new SEP’S per year
IS NOT NEARLY ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN PISTON GA AS WE KNOW IT TODAY.

We need five times that number at a minimum.

What's the current annual scrap rate for GA pistons? Anyone have that number?

I think the export rate is much higher than the scrap rate

There are probably a thousand planes per year abandoned on tie down ramps .
This is not counting the ones that go for scrap.

So that you don't get the blowback that GAMA misses some manufacturers and that the number of Experimental built is missing.

Experimental numbers (single engine piston fixed wing) were found from searching the Registration Database based on Manufacture Year which is the Airworthiness Date. It includes all types of Experimental - everything from RV's to kits that are not really much more than an ultralight.

Regarding the comment that Textron builds over 200 C-172's every year - that was only true in 2020. It dropped in 2021. The number of C-172 built by year : (2018) - 129, (2019) - 126, (2020) - 241 and (2021) - 166.

Regarding the comment that Vans is shipping 50 kits/month - perhaps true but people are not finishing them. The real number is less than 20 per month. COVID working from home or the big "retirement/quit" didn't seem to drive completions up - In fact 2021 was the lowest in 4 years. The number of Vans (all types) built and registered as airworthy by year. : (2018) - 226, (2019) - 231, (2020) - 253 and (2021) - 197. The Total of all Experimental in 2021 was also the lowest in 4 years.

Experimentals are not a substitute for the Certified fleet. Yes they can be interesting and fill some missions but they are not going to have the long life or appeal (resale) of the certified fleet over time.

Even with the inclusion of Experimental there only about 2,000 single engine piston planes added each year. Of the total about 1,400 are Certified. Note that Pipistrel (now Textron) has been delivering EV Aircraft as trainers - 48 last year.

My 3-4000 number is all GA airplanes, not just pistons.

And yes, it is very hard to get good numbers. I don’t quote the online stuff, including GAMA, because on the turbine side I have access to the real numbers. I don’t know how accurate their piston numbers are.

I think it’s important to point out that these numbers are airplanes delivered. You could double those numbers right now if you had the airplanes.

Gerald is right, pistons, especially piston twins will continue to dwindle, but that’s not because GA is dying, that’s because people want to go faster / safer.

I’ve said it before, today’s pilots want to go Cirrus - TBM - jet.

The FAA registry now gives a much more accurate count of aircraft now that registration renewals are required. At one point I had hundreds of aircraft that I was parting out that were still on it. I am sure many other salvage dealers had similar numbers.

The real question is what happens long term, we are currently seeing an increase in interest in private air travel that covers all spectrums, from an old Cessna 150 / 172 to Gulfstream 700's

The driving factor isn't that people want a turbine or a new Cirrus or a _________. The driving factor is that they want to get from point A to point B without sitting next to some freak that thinks it's ok to pleasure himself in the seat next to them. https://www.foxnews.com/us/southwest-ai ... light-feds

It doesn't matter if you have $100k or $65M to spend on an airplane, if it's an option it's probably a consideration.

Everyone keeps talking about how much money has been pumped into the economy, the tax advantages, etc. but what gets missed is that a very small number of the folks who can afford to fly private, actually do it.

The pandemic changed that.

Is it temporary? Will people go back to flying with Pee Wee Herman?

Probably not.

If the answer is they won't, then we do not have enough airplanes.

We don't have enough jets... turboprops... or piston twins.

I’m with Chip on this one. Commercial travel has steadily declined from travel that required a suit and tie to now 17 old girls who feel the need to travel in pajamas, slippers, clutching a blanket and pillow (insert eye roll).

The commercial travel experience is over. It doesn’t get better. It marches towards its final destination. Barely above riding a crowed city bus with too many stops.

Airlines can add luxury first class seats, admiral clubs in airports, free drinks... it still sucks.

The loose social contract between paying passenger and airline that suggested the airline had some responsibility to get me to my final destination in return for my purchase of a non refundable ticket.. no more. One fake cough and I get my money back. In return, airlines cancel flights and could care less when... or even if... I make my final destination.

I’m long on GA.... at least ‘my GA’.

Almost every comment I read on this thread has some element of truth.

And some element of, "yes, but".

We could get closer to the "truth" if the thread was divided into two segment: piston and turbine. They are two completely different worlds.

Jg