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 Post subject: Re: From planes to beer cans
PostPosted: 09 Aug 2014, 00:22 
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Joined: 02/15/09
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Aircraft: 1984 B36TC
I don't think Beech, Cessna or Piper have to much to worry about. Here's a cold fact airplanes that don't look like normal airplanes DON'T SELL period. Look at the Piaggio on paper it kicks the B200 (B250's) ass. On the sales report it's not even a blip.


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 Post subject: Re: From planes to beer cans
PostPosted: 09 Aug 2014, 00:57 
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Sounds like a far fetched hypothetical. Shooting for the sky!

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 Post subject: Re: From planes to beer cans
PostPosted: 09 Aug 2014, 01:22 
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Username Protected wrote:
Sounds like a far fetched hypothetical. Shooting for the sky!

That's what they said about Wilbur and Orville. :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: From planes to beer cans
PostPosted: 09 Aug 2014, 01:36 
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Perhaps, but they had to believe it once they saw it.

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 Post subject: Re: From planes to beer cans
PostPosted: 09 Aug 2014, 02:06 
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Location: KRHV San Jose, CA
Aircraft: A36, R44, C525
Ok I have to say..... LOP. It must make fuel.......

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 Post subject: Re: From planes to beer cans
PostPosted: 09 Aug 2014, 05:54 
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Joined: 08/31/09
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Company: Telematic Systems, Inc.
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Username Protected wrote:
I think Jim Bede would hesitate to claim those performance figures...

:lol:

I was looking really hard for Jim's name as I read that BS . . .

Can't believe it! Jim's been reincarnated!!! :lol:
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 Post subject: Re: From planes to beer cans
PostPosted: 09 Aug 2014, 09:01 
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Joined: 09/08/13
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Company: Gene's Mountain View Auto
Location: 4B0 Upstate NY/ VRB Florida
Aircraft: 67 Debonair C33A
If you go to the website and read.........has a feel like some kid wrote it.
No facts..........just a lot of promises. Who knows..... :crazy:


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 Post subject: Re: From planes to beer cans
PostPosted: 09 Aug 2014, 09:50 
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Joined: 01/18/11
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Location: Lakeland , Ga
Aircraft: H35, T-41B, Aircoupe
I was hoping to trade up from my moller sky car. But being fully automated, it has escaped my garage.


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 Post subject: Re: From planes to beer cans
PostPosted: 09 Aug 2014, 10:36 
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Joined: 02/26/13
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Username Protected wrote:
Are all those Barons, Dukes, Cessna, Pipers all about to see their value drop to their weight in beer cans?

Well, if they were to suddenly drop radically in value, then it would mean that another aircraft has arrived that has capabilities that will transform the private aviation industry as we have known it for the last 50 years.

So what would those transformative performances look like?

How about this:

1) Cruise speed 285Kts
2) Cruise altitude 25,000 ft (Pressurized)
3) Cruise consumption 7 US gals per hour (Diesel or Jet A1)
4) Range 5,000+ nm
5) State of the art glass cockpit
6) Seating 4 through 6

Would such an aircraft give you pause for thought about the economic viability of what you fly today?

Now transformation of an industry does not usually happen overnight but rather occurs because developments in a variety of seemingly independent technologies can now be innovatively bundled and create a "giant leap forward" in performance / price ratios.

Jonathan

==============

Sounds like bubble gum pipe dream airplane!

However the aircraft values dropping that will stay with us. By how much?
I think for the person inclined we can easily come up with a baseline figure, for general aviation in the aggregate and for each individual model.
Factors are:
1. cost of fuel per flight hr, per median income
2. Pilot population v/s number of aircraft.
3. Divide number of pilots by airplanes
4. factor pilot community into any point of future time
5. If for every 20 pilots there is one airplane with a median income of x and cost of fuel of Y. We can pretty much figure out anything we want to know.
It is not looking good. Your pipe dream airplane on the above scale is probably in the 2000/1 or higher pilot category and will do nothing to invigorate genAv. Its on par with a Bonanza of $900K. Airplanes of this $ort are in fact an economic and cultural disaster for aviation. They only lend credence to the idea that it is an elitist sport and should be treated with contempt and envy, and not deserving of any public support and funding.
***********

On the plus side every year I am getting ever closer to being able to afford a usable twin and on the minus side is? will it happens before I die from old age......

:scratch:


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 Post subject: Re: From planes to beer cans
PostPosted: 09 Aug 2014, 11:15 
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Joined: 09/02/11
Posts: 2020
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Location: Raleigh, NC (KTTA)
Aircraft: 1979 Sundowner
Username Protected wrote:
Are all those Barons, Dukes, Cessna, Pipers all about to see their value drop to their weight in beer cans?

Well, if they were to suddenly drop radically in value, then it would mean that another aircraft has arrived that has capabilities that will transform the private aviation industry as we have known it for the last 50 years.

So what would those transformative performances look like?

How about this:

1) Cruise speed 285Kts
2) Cruise altitude 25,000 ft (Pressurized)
3) Cruise consumption 7 US gals per hour (Diesel or Jet A1)
4) Range 5,000+ nm
5) State of the art glass cockpit
6) Seating 4 through 6

Would such an aircraft give you pause for thought about the economic viability of what you fly today?

Now transformation of an industry does not usually happen overnight but rather occurs because developments in a variety of seemingly independent technologies can now be innovatively bundled and create a "giant leap forward" in performance / price ratios.

The early bundling of technologies tends to first occur on the margins, draws much sceptiscm and attracts only a few early adopters / enthusiasts. However as the basic innovations are tinkered with and improved upon (and Americans are the worlds greatest tinkerers and improvers) then market acceptance grows rapidly.

So is there any evidence of such innovative bundling in the general aviation industry to produce transformative performances? Perhaps. Check out the Raptor (flying in 24 months) on the following link and lets hear your opinion - how much will your Beechcraft/Cessna/Piper be worth in 5 years time?

http://www.raptor-aircraft.com/pricing.html

Jonathan


As long as they're at it why don't they add folding wings and make it drivable so you don't need to worry about crew cars or rentals.


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 Post subject: Re: From planes to beer cans
PostPosted: 09 Aug 2014, 18:28 
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Joined: 09/02/13
Posts: 68
Post Likes: +15
Location: Granbury, Texas
Aircraft: Baron B55
Username Protected wrote:
Are all those Barons, Dukes, Cessna, Pipers all about to see their value drop to their weight in beer cans?

Well, if they were to suddenly drop radically in value, then it would mean that another aircraft has arrived that has capabilities that will transform the private aviation industry as we have known it for the last 50 years.

So what would those transformative performances look like?

How about this:

1) Cruise speed 285Kts
2) Cruise altitude 25,000 ft (Pressurized)
3) Cruise consumption 7 US gals per hour (Diesel or Jet A1)
4) Range 5,000+ nm
5) State of the art glass cockpit
6) Seating 4 through 6

Would such an aircraft give you pause for thought about the economic viability of what you fly today?

Now transformation of an industry does not usually happen overnight but rather occurs because developments in a variety of seemingly independent technologies can now be innovatively bundled and create a "giant leap forward" in performance / price ratios.

Jonathan

==============

Sounds like bubble gum pipe dream airplane!

However the aircraft values dropping that will stay with us. By how much?
I think for the person inclined we can easily come up with a baseline figure, for general aviation in the aggregate and for each individual model.
Factors are:
1. cost of fuel per flight hr, per median income
2. Pilot population v/s number of aircraft.
3. Divide number of pilots by airplanes
4. factor pilot community into any point of future time
5. If for every 20 pilots there is one airplane with a median income of x and cost of fuel of Y. We can pretty much figure out anything we want to know.
It is not looking good. Your pipe dream airplane on the above scale is probably in the 2000/1 or higher pilot category and will do nothing to invigorate genAv. Its on par with a Bonanza of $900K. Airplanes of this $ort are in fact an economic and cultural disaster for aviation. They only lend credence to the idea that it is an elitist sport and should be treated with contempt and envy, and not deserving of any public support and funding.
***********

On the plus side every year I am getting ever closer to being able to afford a usable twin and on the minus side is? will it happens before I die from old age......

:scratch:


It would appear that the sceptics win handsomely in this discussion based on a succession of failed promises of designs that will provide transformative performance but that ultimately only deliver disappointment and failure. However I doubt that any would be so bold as to claim that a transformative aircraft will never successfully materialize in their lifetimes. And this is the point. What do we see happening in the technologies that would go into the making of a transformative aircraft?

But first what do we mean by transformative? I think that transformative is not in the first instance about technical performance but rather about about market revival brought about by the old cost / performance trade-offs being fundamentally changed in ways which induce a substantial rise in the numbers of people who see private aviation as a clear alternative to substitute means of transport. Max you outline some of the factors that go into this cost/benefit trade-off.

The transformative airplane therefore needs to deliver a range of benefits that simultaneously increase the total utility experienced by the owner whilst at the same time substantially reduces the total cost of ownership. Which tangible and intangible attributes on offer that go into increasing total owner utility will of course vary by owner preferences. Some of the top line attributes that deliver non-price utility could be as follows:

1) Speed
2) Altitude
3) Range
4) Payload
5) Avionics
6) Reliability
7) Fuel consumption per hour
8) All weather

These attributes are likely to be the order winning criteria for a large number of pilots. Of course the list of attributes that deliver utility has a long tail - at least another 50+

Once new bundling of technology has delivered transformative performance on these order winning attributes the battle is only half won. The price tag on these new performances has to be lower than currently on the market place thereby delivering a owner surplus in a future purchase far in excess of what is currently available. It is this transformative owner surplus (total expected utility minus total cost of ownership) that will change buyer behavior and induce new owners into the market.

So the question arises with convergent development of new diesel engines, airframe construction materials and methods, falling avionics prices with higher capabilities and so on is there not a case to be made that the emergence of a transformative airplane for GA is imminent?

Jonathan

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 Post subject: Re: From planes to beer cans
PostPosted: 09 Aug 2014, 19:29 
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Joined: 10/27/10
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Location: Cambridge, MA (KLWM)
Aircraft: 1997 A36TN
Username Protected wrote:
So the question arises with convergent development of new diesel engines, airframe construction materials and methods, falling avionics prices with higher capabilities and so on is there not a case to be made that the emergence of a transformative airplane for GA is imminent?
Until the physics of the atmosphere or the basic of thermodynamics change, we're not likely to see quantum leaps in performance. 10-20% is nice, 50% on an individual parameter changes the game for sure (that's 182 to A36TN speed), but overall, you're dealing with some pretty fundamental physical tradeoffs that make it hard to make quantum gains in all of those parameters simultaneously. Going 285kts down in the low teens requires prodigious power (and associated fuel consumption figures). Going into the low flight levels requires pressurization and a lot more demands placed onto the pilot. Even the low 20s aren't an especially friendly environment, but the mid-20s are less hospitable. Creating a wing with low enough drag to tick over 285KTAS at a cruise power setting will likely give you a wing with poor low-speed handling and/or requiring a lot of runway and high approach speeds. If those are over 61KIAS Vs0 in a single, you need to demonstrate equivalent safety, etc.

Beech, Cessna, Mooney, and Piper aren't full of idiots as designers. Aviation is an arena full of pretty well-established tradeoffs and when I see people making claims that would make good ol' JB blush and hesitate, my BS meter is pinned to the right.

4-6 seats, 5000nm, at 285KTAS on 7gph? Not in my lifetime... Or yours...


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 Post subject: Re: From planes to beer cans
PostPosted: 09 Aug 2014, 19:56 
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Joined: 08/07/08
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Location: Fort Worth, TX (KFTW)
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Username Protected wrote:
So the question arises with convergent development of new diesel engines, airframe construction materials and methods, falling avionics prices with higher capabilities and so on is there not a case to be made that the emergence of a transformative airplane for GA is imminent?
Until the physics of the atmosphere or the basic of thermodynamics change, we're not likely to see quantum leaps in performance. 10-20% is nice, 50% on an individual parameter changes the game for sure (that's 182 to A36TN speed), but overall, you're dealing with some pretty fundamental physical tradeoffs that make it hard to make quantum gains in all of those parameters simultaneously. Going 285kts down in the low teens requires prodigious power (and associated fuel consumption figures). Going into the low flight levels requires pressurization and a lot more demands placed onto the pilot. Even the low 20s aren't an especially friendly environment, but the mid-20s are less hospitable. Creating a wing with low enough drag to tick over 285KTAS at a cruise power setting will likely give you a wing with poor low-speed handling and/or requiring a lot of runway and high approach speeds. If those are over 61KIAS Vs0 in a single, you need to demonstrate equivalent safety, etc.

Beech, Cessna, Mooney, and Piper aren't full of idiots as designers. Aviation is an arena full of pretty well-established tradeoffs and when I see people making claims that would make good ol' JB blush and hesitate, my BS meter is pinned to the right.

4-6 seats, 5000nm, at 285KTAS on 7gph? Not in my lifetime... Or yours...

Jim, well said.

Several nutty things jumped out at me when I went to their website. One example: the seats are mounted on cantilever posts off the central console "so that you can easily find your loose change when it falls out of your pocket, and, it just looks cool". Leaving aside the silliness of the comment, can you imagine how much extra weight will be required to accomplish a cantilever seat mount compared to a simple floor mounted design?

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 Post subject: Re: From planes to beer cans
PostPosted: 09 Aug 2014, 22:41 
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Joined: 09/02/13
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Location: Granbury, Texas
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Username Protected wrote:
So the question arises with convergent development of new diesel engines, airframe construction materials and methods, falling avionics prices with higher capabilities and so on is there not a case to be made that the emergence of a transformative airplane for GA is imminent?
Until the physics of the atmosphere or the basic of thermodynamics change, we're not likely to see quantum leaps in performance. 10-20% is nice, 50% on an individual parameter changes the game for sure (that's 182 to A36TN speed), but overall, you're dealing with some pretty fundamental physical tradeoffs that make it hard to make quantum gains in all of those parameters simultaneously. Going 285kts down in the low teens requires prodigious power (and associated fuel consumption figures). Going into the low flight levels requires pressurization and a lot more demands placed onto the pilot. Even the low 20s aren't an especially friendly environment, but the mid-20s are less hospitable. Creating a wing with low enough drag to tick over 285KTAS at a cruise power setting will likely give you a wing with poor low-speed handling and/or requiring a lot of runway and high approach speeds. If those are over 61KIAS Vs0 in a single, you need to demonstrate equivalent safety, etc.

Beech, Cessna, Mooney, and Piper aren't full of idiots as designers. Aviation is an arena full of pretty well-established tradeoffs and when I see people making claims that would make good ol' JB blush and hesitate, my BS meter is pinned to the right.

4-6 seats, 5000nm, at 285KTAS on 7gph? Not in my lifetime... Or yours...


How about 4 seats, 2000nm, at 265Kts, 25,000ft, pressurized on 14 - 21 gph? Transformative perhaps?

But I think that you hit the right spot here:

"Beech, Cessna, Mooney, and Piper aren't full of idiots as designers. Aviation is an arena full of pretty well-established tradeoffs and when I see people making claims that would make good ol' JB blush and hesitate, my BS meter is pinned to the right."

Of course the established airplane makers have great engineers and designers. But what is their interest in developing a transformative airplane? They have an enormous pool of flying aircraft consuming parts and with a lot of loyal customers with investments in current capability / cost profiles. If they produced a transformative aircraft (capability / cost trade-off transformed) there would be a lot of very unhappy customers out there with a large irrecoverable sunk cost. Rather the established brands have every incentive to tweek current performances on new models but little incentive to cannibalize their existing customer base. That is the focus of their talented engineers and designers - tweeking.

It is for this reason that the transformative aircraft (which would undoubtedly have to look very different to achieve transformative aerodynamic performance) is not likely to arise from the current major players but rather from an enthusiast or even outside of the industry.

Is the Raptor it? Probably not but it does raise questions that the big players need to ask.

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 Post subject: Re: From planes to beer cans
PostPosted: 09 Aug 2014, 22:46 
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And, does anyone remember the Porshel Equator? Stunning performance like this one, too, and amphibious, too. Great plane. I had their brochure and was saving up.

How many of those do you see flying?

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