JGG is one of the smartest dudes I have talked to and I am not disagreeing with him and appreciate the insight.

However, I believe that money will be tightened via continued increase of interest rates. I wasn’t alive in 73 but I recall Mom and Dad talking about 11% interest rates on the Gold Duster and somewhere near that in their first house. I believe that we may see 9% of the Fed keeps the sails up and steering towards the breakers. If they turn it at the last minute we might not have too bad of a recession. Aviation is the first thing to go and the last thing to recover in a recession. As a complete aside, we are seeing the data center builds out in Loudoun and Prince William slowing but not by much.

Several Cirrus owners I have spoken with have notes around 4% and that is because the capital in the market and their businesses makes more. Every percent is about another $500-$700 per month in interest expense alone on a new or newer Cirrus. That is about 2 flight hours. Also, there are deductions on that interest dependent upon how the aircraft is owned or operated. At what point is that not affordable?

Keep in mind that the publications, in general, are reacting to information submitted to them from 3 - 6 months ago. If there is a real interest is seeing something more up-to-date, use the PAAO Instant Aircraft Analyzer Tool. You have 5 days to try it out for free - https://appraiseaplane.info/wp/2023/04/ ... -analyzer/

Good luck.

Keep in mind how slowly information was received back then, versus today....which still has a lag, but certainly less pronounced

Economic data can be analyzed and compiled at a much more rapid pace, and the market reacts much quicker now to the data

A $1 Mil or so SR20 or SR22 would be almost new. The reason people are buying them is the same reason people buy any new aircraft - particularly in recent times, it is quite challenging to obtain both parts and labor to maintain a legacy aircraft.

That said - a related question which has been discussed on COPA recently is why used Vision Jet / SF50 planes have depreciated so quickly, with the early ones now $1.85 Mil or so vs. $3.4 mil new. The SF50 has a mandatory "JetStream" program which is about $100K for 150 hours per year and covers all maintenance as well as training/avionics subscriptions.

Since virtually the entire SF50 fleet is on JetStream, it means that selling/buying one used is radically easier than with any other plane because the likelihood of needing catchup maintenance is low and it is likely to be covered at no additional charge if it is needed. It also means that leaseback or dry lease arrangements are much simpler since maintenance costs are predictable.

I would think these factors would be valued in the market and raise the used price of the SF50. But it seems I am wrong there; the market as a whole seems to prefer the option to defer maintenance and as a result the VisionJets seem to be depreciating faster than other aircraft.

Perhaps the folks at Cirrus are aware of the boom-bust nature of aviation. Investments in additional production lines, staffing, etc could end up idle in the next downturn. Much better to keep the order books full and sock away some cash for the next rainy day. They always come. Always.

Currently, the Federal Government is running a deficit of 5% of GDP. Govt spending is included in GDP. This means the private economy is in contraction and has been for a while. All of that "money available for spending" is coming from Uncle Sam, either directly or indirectly. The reason you haven't witnessed this in your 50 years in business is because we have never run deficits this large in non-recession times. A river of money (govt cheese in this case) slamming into tight labor markets = inflation.

This is also why we haven't "felt" the Fed's interest rate hikes. The fiscal side is overwhelming the monetary side. This will continue until the govt has to roll over its debt at much higher interest rates. At that point the govt will have to make a choice between 2 bad options. Radically cut spending in order to pay the higher interest cost, or force the Fed into monetizing the debt which will have an affect on the dollar. I'll leave you to guess which one they will do (the same one every other government in human history has done).

Used Airplane values are never again going down in value. Inflation in rampant, money is worthless, the cost of new airplanes is high thus old airplanes will continue to offer a great value.

A Used 501 is still 1/10th the cost of a new M2 and does basically the same thing. Same is true for almost any other brand or model.

There's no gloom and doom going on IMO. Demand is still very strong for quality used machines.

Mike

$1m is all the money in the world to some of you, and to others it’s just not that much

Perspective is everything here in this discussion, what is your time worth? What is the hassle/headache of engine overhauls, interior projects, panel refreshes, paint shop delays, maintenance squawks?

I must tip my hat to several, most, of the commenters hereon, for making very good points. The point is, THERE IS NOT ONE POINT THAT STANDS ALONE. All good!

I do want to post an aside to what Michael says. Last Friday, Karen and I were on a flight to D.C. to visit children, and I was reading the AOPA article on the new Tecnam trainer. I interrupted her solving a Hard Sudoku to show her the highlights of the article. As I pointed to several particularly interesting details like "two place" and $368,000, my comment was "Makes the Baron look like a bargain."

I have moved around this latest compass of "where are airplane values going" quite a ways. I have come to agree with Michael: not down, by much anyway.

Jg